US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey in June 2025 shows slowdown or hiring and large down revision in May
07/29/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to cracks showing in labor market and signs of slowdown started to appear
Quick summary of the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June 2025:
Headline Overview:
Job Openings: 7.4 million (unchanged from May, revised down from 7.7M)
Hires: 5.2 million (little changed)
Total Separations: 5.1 million (little changed)
Quits: 3.1 million (rate steady at 2.0%)
Layoffs & Discharges: 1.6 million (unchanged)
Other Separations: 314,000 (unchanged)
Industry Highlights:
Job Openings:
▼ Accommodation and food services: -308,000
▼ Health care and social assistance: -244,000
▼ Finance and insurance: -142,000
▲ Retail trade: +190,000
▲ Information: +67,000
▲ State/local government education: +61,000
Hires:
▼ Arts, entertainment, and recreation: -42,000
Separations:
▼ State/local government education: -39,000
▼ Federal government: -20,000
Quits:
▼ Professional and business services: -114,000
▼ State/local government education: -20,000
▼ Federal government: -5,000
Layoffs & Discharges:
▼ Arts, entertainment, and recreation: -35,000
▲ Mining and logging: +5,000
Revisions to May 2025 Data:
Job openings revised down by 57,000 to 7.7 million
Hires revised down by 38,000 to 5.5 million
Quits revised down by 23,000 to 3.3 million
Layoffs/discharges revised up by 10,000 to 1.6 million
Key Takeaways:
Labor market conditions remain broadly steady in June.
A notable decline in job openings in key service sectors suggests softening demand for labor, particularly in food service and health care.
The quits rate holding at 2.0% indicates stable worker confidence, though quit volumes are below the post-pandemic highs.
Overall, the report reflects a cooling but still resilient labor market.
Initial jobless claims decreased to 217,000 from previous week but continuous claims increased to 2.04 million
07/23/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuous claims increased to 2.04 million
Initial jobless claims decreased to 217,000, down 4,000 from the previous week's 221,000. The four-week moving average fell to 224,500, a decrease of 5,000. The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.3%, with continuing claims at 1,955,000, up slightly by 4,000 from the revised previous week. Unadjusted initial claims showed a larger decrease of 45,319 (17.4%), exceeding seasonal expectations. Compared to the same period in 2024, current initial claims are lower (215,792 vs 225,839), though total continued claims across all programs increased to 2,039,425, up from 1,970,274 a year earlier. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.7%), and Puerto Rico (2.6%), with New York showing the largest weekly increase in initial claims (+10,001).
European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady, ending year long easing cycle
07/23/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe down due to termination of easing cycle after eight consecutive cuts
In July 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady, signaling the end of its year-long easing cycle after eight consecutive cuts. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0%, their lowest levels since November 2022. The ECB adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” approach amid ongoing trade uncertainties and potential economic impacts from proposed U.S. tariffs. With inflation reaching the 2% target in June, the pause aligns with the central bank’s objective of maintaining price stability. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that policy is “in a good place” but emphasized the challenge in gauging tariff effects due to conflicting inflationary and disinflationary forces. She also reaffirmed that while the ECB doesn’t target exchange rates, the euro’s appreciation is factored into inflation projections.
Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped significantly to -20 in July 2025 from 12 points in June
07/22/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to significant drop of manufacturing index in June 2025
The US Fifth District's composite manufacturing index dropped significantly to -20 in July 2025, falling 12 points from June and reaching its lowest level in ten months. This sharp decline contradicted market expectations of an improvement to -2, suggesting a renewed deterioration in manufacturing activity. The poor performance may be linked to recent White House tariff threats disrupting supply chains that had been recovering from previous trade tensions. Key metrics worsened across the board: shipments fell more rapidly (-18 vs -5 in June), new orders plunged dramatically (-25 vs -12), backlogs depleted further (-30 vs -18), and employment continued to contract (-16 vs -6). Price growth moderated for both inputs (5.65 vs 6.10) and outputs (3.16 vs 3.57). Despite these concerning indicators, manufacturers maintained positive expectations for future shipments (11 vs 6), suggesting some optimism about longer-term prospects.
Canada’s industrial producer prices increased by 0.4% month over month in June 2025 rebounding from decline
07/21/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada neutral as inflation will keep interest rates high and limit continuous growth
Canada's industrial producer prices increased by 0.4% month-over-month in June 2025, rebounding from two consecutive monthly declines and exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% rise. This growth was primarily driven by a 2.8% increase in primary non-ferrous metal products, particularly unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals and their alloys, which rose 5.9%. Platinum group metals recorded their largest monthly gain since September 2012, surging 15.6%. The food sector also contributed significantly, with meat, fish, and dairy products rising 2.2% (continuing a seven-month growth streak), led by fresh and frozen chicken (+6.7%) and beef and veal (+2.2%). Further upward pressure came from energy and petroleum products (+1.1%) and fruit, vegetables, feed, and other food products (+1.2%), collectively driving the stronger-than-expected industrial price growth.
Japan’s core consumer price index rose 3.3% year over year in June 2025, above target of 2%
07/18/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan neutral as inflation will keep interest rates high and limit continuous growth
Japan's core consumer price index rose 3.3% year-on-year in June 2025, matching market forecasts but remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. This marked the first slowdown since February and the slowest pace since March, following a 3.7% increase in May, primarily due to resumed fuel subsidies aimed at easing household living costs. The moderation in inflation has raised expectations that the BOJ might maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during its upcoming meeting, despite board member Hajime Takata's recent advocacy for resuming rate hikes after a temporary pause to assess the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy. The BOJ has kept rates steady at 0.5% since January's increase, which brought rates to their highest level in 17 years.
US Consumer sentiment rose to 61.8 in July 2025, highest level in 5 months, but inflation expectation still high
07/18/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral as monthly consumer sentiment improved by offset by risk from multiple areas of the economy
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 61.8 in July 2025, its highest level in five months, up from 60.7 in June and exceeding expectations of 61.5, according to preliminary University of Michigan data. The current conditions index improved to 66.8 and the expectations gauge edged up to 58.6. Short-term business outlooks strengthened by about 8%, though expectations for personal finances declined by 4%. Encouragingly, year-ahead inflation expectations dropped for a second month to 4.4% from 5%, and long-run expectations fell for a third month to 3.6% from 4%, both hitting their lowest since February. However, both remain above December 2024 levels, suggesting consumers still view inflation risks as elevated.
United States’ jobless claims report showed falling initial claims to 221,000, but 4 week average up to 1,956,000
07/17/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to rise of continuous unemployment to 1,956,000, highest since November 2021
The latest U.S. jobless claims report showed unexpected strength in the labor market, with initial claims falling by 7,000 to 221,000 for the week ending July 12, 2025 - the lowest level since April and well below market expectations of 235,000. The previous week's figure was revised up slightly to 228,000. The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased to 229,500, down 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. Meanwhile, continuing claims edged up marginally by 2,000 to 1,956,000, still below market forecasts of 1,970,000, with the insured unemployment rate holding steady at 1.3%. However, the four-week moving average for continuing claims rose to 1,957,500, reaching its highest level since November 2021, suggesting some gradual cooling in the labor market despite overall resilience.
United Kingdom’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.7% from April’s 2.6%
07/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to rise of unemployment rate
The UK’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.7% in the three months to May 2025, up sharply from April’s 2.6% and reaching its highest level since mid-2021. Unemployment increased across all durations—short-term, medium-term, and long-term—both compared to the previous period and year-on-year. Despite this, total employment rose by 134,000 to 34.13 million, the highest since February, reflecting growth in both full-time and part-time jobs. The share of workers holding second jobs also climbed to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the economic inactivity rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 21%, signaling increased labor market participation despite rising joblessness.
The Santa Anna National Bank in Santa Anna, Texas was closed by the FDIC receivership, marking the second failure in 2025
07/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to second bank failure happened in 2025
On June 27, 2025, The Santa Anna National Bank in Santa Anna, Texas, was closed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and placed into FDIC receivership. Coleman County State Bank of Coleman, TX, assumed all insured deposits and some assets under a purchase and assumption agreement. The failed bank’s office will reopen on June 30 as a branch of Coleman County State Bank, with depositors automatically becoming customers of the acquiring bank. All insured deposits remain protected, and customers can continue using checks, ATMs, and debit cards without interruption. As of June 18, Santa Anna National Bank held $63.8 million in assets and $53.8 million in deposits, with around $2.8 million potentially uninsured. The FDIC estimates the bank’s failure will cost the Deposit Insurance Fund approximately $23.7 million, partly due to suspected fraud. This marks the second U.S. bank failure in 2025 and the first in Texas since 2019.
U.S producer prices were unchanged from previous month, following a 0.3% increase in May
07/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to prices being flat and slowly easing emerging into recession
In June 2025, U.S. producer prices were unchanged from the previous month, following a 0.3% increase in May, while the annual PPI rose 2.3%. The stability in prices reflected a 0.3% rise in goods—driven by higher costs for energy, food, and core goods—offset by a 0.1% decline in services, mainly due to falling prices for traveler accommodations, automobile retailing, and airline fares. Notably, gasoline and communication equipment prices rose, while egg prices plunged over 21%. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) was flat in June and rose 2.5% year-over-year. Intermediate demand data showed modest increases in processed and unprocessed goods but a slight decline in services. By production stage, prices were flat or declined for most stages, except for Stage 2, which saw a slight uptick. Overall, the data suggests subdued upstream inflation pressures, with goods prices firming but service-related costs easing.
UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.6% in June 3.6%, highest since January 2024 and above expectation of May’s 3.4% level
07/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to high inflation that leads to consistently high interest rates for the UK economy and impact growth
The UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.6% in June 2025, the highest since January 2024 and above expectations for no change from May’s 3.4%. The increase was primarily driven by a sharp rise in transport costs (1.7% vs 0.7%), led by higher motor fuel prices, airfares—especially for long-haul and European routes—rail fares, and vehicle maintenance. Food inflation also picked up to 4.5%, its highest since February, driven by items like cakes and cheddar cheese. Clothing and footwear prices rebounded (0.5% vs -0.3%). However, inflation eased for housing and utilities (7.5% vs 7.7%) and household services (6.7% vs 6.9%), while services inflation held steady at 4.7%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in May. Core inflation also accelerated to 3.7% annually and 0.4% monthly, indicating broad-based price pressures.
South Korea’s unemployment rate dipped slightly from 2.7% to 2.6% in May 2025, indicating resilient labor market
07/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - South Korea neutral as resilient labor market keeps employment stable and labor force participation stable
South Korea’s unemployment rate dipped to 2.6% in June 2025 from 2.7% in May, signaling continued labor market resilience amid global economic uncertainty. The number of unemployed fell to 825,000, down 3.8% year-on-year, while employment rose by 183,000 to 29.091 million, a 0.6% annual increase. The labor force participation rate edged up to 65.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than a year ago, indicating stable workforce engagement.
Overall, the data reflects a healthy labor market, with both job creation and participation holding firm despite external challenges.
US annual inflation accelerated to 2.7% in June 2025, up from 2.4% in May, marking the highest rate since February.
07/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to high inflation that leads to consistently high interest rates for the US economy and impact growth
U.S. annual inflation accelerated to 2.7% in June 2025, up from 2.4% in May and marking the highest rate since February, consistent with market expectations. The increase was driven by higher prices for food (3% vs 2.9%), transportation services (3.4% vs 2.8%), and used cars and trucks (2.8% vs 1.8%). Energy prices fell less sharply (-0.8% vs -3.5%), with gasoline (-8.3%) and fuel oil (-4.7%) still declining but at a slower pace, while natural gas inflation remained high (14.2%). Inflation eased for shelter (3.8% vs 3.9%) and new vehicles (0.2% vs 0.4%). On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.3%—the largest increase in five months—up from 0.1% in May. Core inflation edged up to 2.9% annually (vs 2.8%) but remained below the 3% forecast, while monthly core CPI increased 0.2%, slightly less than the 0.3% expected. The report signals gradually building inflationary pressure but still reflects moderating core trends.
Canada’s annual inflation rate edged up to 1.9% but still below Bank of Canada’s expectations
07/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to slower than expected inflation rate indicating possibility of recession
Canada’s annual inflation rate edged up to 1.9% in June 2025 from 1.7% in May, in line with market expectations but still below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for the third consecutive month. The uptick was driven by slower deflation in fuel prices (-13.4% vs -15.5%), which moderated the decline in overall transportation costs. Durable goods inflation also contributed, with higher prices for passenger vehicles (5.2%) and furniture (3.3%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for food (2.9% vs 3.4%) due to slower grocery price increases, and for shelter (2.9% vs 3%). The Bank’s preferred core inflation measure, the trimmed-mean CPI, held steady at 3%, as anticipated. The data aligns with the central bank's view that inflation may rise in the near term due to tariffs and potential supply shortages.
China’s retail sales growth slowed down to 4.8% year over year in June 2025
07/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China Down due continuous slowdown of retail sales
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year in June 2025, down from 6.4% in May and below market expectations of 5.6%, marking the weakest pace since February. The deceleration was broad-based, with sharp slowdowns in discretionary categories such as jewelry, electronics, and sports goods, while sales of beverages, cosmetics, and medicine declined outright. In contrast, automobile sales improved, rising 4.6% after a modest gain in May. On a monthly basis, retail activity slipped 0.16%, reversing a 0.69% gain in the previous month. For the first half of 2025, retail sales rose 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a loss of momentum in consumer spending and suggesting domestic demand remains fragile despite earlier signs of recovery.
China’s real estate market stabilized with YoY decline eased to 3.2% but with MoM declining at 0.3%
07/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China Down due continuous contraction of real estate market, indicating imbalanced purchasing power of investors
China's new home prices in 70 cities showed signs of stabilizing in June 2025, with the year-on-year decline easing to 3.2% from 3.5% in May. While this marks the 24th straight month of contraction, it represents the slowest decline since April 2024, suggesting Beijing's efforts to address the property market weakness may be having some effect. Major cities continued to see price drops, with Guangzhou experiencing the steepest decline at 5.1%, followed by Beijing at 4.1%. Shanghai remained the notable exception, posting a 6.0% increase. Despite the improving annual figures, the month-on-month data revealed a worsening trend, with prices falling 0.3% in June compared to 0.2% in May, extending the monthly downturn that began in May 2023.
Canada’s unemployment rate edged down to 6.9% in June 2025 from 7.0% in May 2025, long term unemployment persist
07/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada neutral as monthly unemployment decreased in June 2025 with long term unemployment remained elevated
Canada’s unemployment rate edged down to 6.9% in June 2025 from 7.0% in May, defying expectations of a rise to 7.1% and marking the first improvement since January. The number of unemployed fell by 22,100, while total employment surged by 83,100—the strongest monthly gain since December—driven by a sharp rise in part-time jobs, particularly in wholesale and retail trade. Despite the positive headline figures, long-term unemployment remained elevated, with 21.8% of job seekers unemployed for over six months. The labor force participation rate also ticked up slightly to 65.4%, signaling a modest increase in labor market engagement amid ongoing economic uncertainty and U.S. tariff pressures.
In June 2025, full-time employment in Canada rose modestly by 13,500 to 17.207 million, slowing sharply from the 57,700 increase recorded in May. Total employment grew by 83,000 (+0.4%), marking the first monthly gain since January, with the majority of the growth driven by a surge in part-time employment, which jumped by 69,500 (+1.8%). The data highlights a rebound in labor market activity, though the strength was concentrated in less stable part-time positions, signaling cautious hiring amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
In June 2025, part-time employment in Canada surged by 69,500, rebounding sharply from a decline of 48,800 in May. This jump accounted for the bulk of the 83,000 (+0.4%) total employment gain—the country’s first since January—highlighting a strong recovery in the part-time job segment, which grew by 1.8% on the month. The concentration of employment growth in part-time roles suggests that while the labor market is improving, employers remain cautious, favoring flexible hiring amid lingering economic and trade-related uncertainties.
U.S Initial Jobless Claims fell slightly to 227,000, down 5,000 from the prior week, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million
07/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to increase in continuing claims, indicating growing persistence in unemployment
In the week ending July 5, 2025, U.S. initial jobless claims fell slightly to 227,000, down 5,000 from the prior week’s revised figure, while the 4-week moving average dropped to 235,500, indicating a modest easing in new layoffs. However, continuing claims rose by 10,000 to 1.965 million—the highest since November 2021—suggesting growing persistence in unemployment. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, though the 4-week average of continuing claims also reached a multi-year high. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims increased less than expected, while insured unemployment rose to 1.906 million. Overall, while layoffs remain contained, the rising trend in continued claims points to a softening in job retention and hiring dynamics.
Japan’s Index of coincident economic indicators slipped slightly to 115.9 from 116.0 in April 2025.
07/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down due to possible headwinds that are tempering recovery momentum
In May 2025, Japan’s index of coincident economic indicators slipped slightly to 115.9, down from 116.0 in April, according to a preliminary report. The minor dip suggests that while Japan’s moderate economic recovery continues, several headwinds are tempering momentum:
Industrial output remained flat, reflecting subdued manufacturing activity.
The employment situation improved, offering a positive signal amid overall economic uncertainty.
Surging rice prices continued to strain household budgets, despite government intervention.
U.S.-Japan trade negotiations failed to yield a breakthrough, but both sides agreed to extend talks—highlighting lingering uncertainty over trade policy.
The Bank of Japan maintained its cautious and flexible policy stance, monitoring external risks and inflation pressures as it prepares for a gradual interest rate normalization.
Summary: The marginal decline in the coincident index underscores a still-fragile recovery, as Japan navigates inflationary pressures and trade-related uncertainty. Labor improvements and steady policy guidance from the BoJ offer some support to the outlook.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.6, down slightly from 98.8 in May
07/09/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to fall of small business optimism below expectation
In June 2025, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.6, down slightly from 98.8 in May and below expectations of 98.7, though it remains just above the 51-year average of 98. Key highlights from the report include:
Excess inventories were a primary driver of the decline, with a notable rise in respondents reporting inventory surpluses.
Taxes were cited as the most important problem by 19% of small business owners, up one point from May—matching the July 2021 high. Taxes now top the list of concerns again.
Labor quality and high labor costs continue to be major issues for many owners.
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions declined by 3 points to -22%, reflecting persistent pessimism.
The net percent expecting higher real sales volumes also dropped 3 points to +7%.
Capital spending intentions weakened, with 21% planning outlays in the next six months, down from 22% in May.
A bright spot: the Uncertainty Index fell by five points to 89, suggesting slightly improved clarity around future conditions.
Bottom line: The small business sector continues to face pressure from taxes, labor issues, and weak sales expectations. Despite the dip in optimism, the decline in uncertainty may hint at some stabilization ahead.
US unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in June 2025 but with weakening participation rate and stagnant employment ratio
07/04/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to slowing unemployment ratio and softness in labor market engagement
The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in June 2025 from 4.2% in May, defying expectations for an increase to 4.3% and continuing a year-long trend of stability within the 4.0%–4.2% range. The decline was driven by a drop of 222,000 in the number of unemployed to 7.015 million, while employment rose modestly by 93,000 to 163.366 million. However, the overall labor force contracted by 130,000 to 170.380 million, pushing the labor force participation rate down by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%—its lowest level since December 2022. The employment-population ratio remained unchanged at 59.7%, matching its weakest level since January 2022. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and part-time workers for economic reasons, ticked down to 7.7% from 7.8% in May. Despite the drop in the headline unemployment rate, the weakening participation rate and stagnant employment ratio suggest underlying softness in labor market engagement.
US private sector hiring slowed down sharply in June 2025 with primary contributor of health care sector
07/04/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous slowing down of nonfarm private payrolls
In June 2025, U.S. nonfarm private payrolls rose by just 74,000, marking a sharp slowdown from the downwardly revised gain of 137,000 in May and falling well short of market expectations of 105,000. The health care sector was the primary contributor, adding 39,000 jobs—driven by gains in hospitals (16,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (14,000)—closely aligning with its 12-month average growth of 43,000. Social assistance employment also increased by 19,000. However, employment across most other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, retail, transportation, finance, and professional services, remained largely flat, signaling broad-based hiring stagnation outside the health and social sectors. This deceleration points to a potential cooling in private sector job creation amid growing economic uncertainty.
Initial Jobless Claims fell slightly to 233,000 in the week of June 28th 2025, continuous claim rose to 1,954,000
07/04/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuously rising insured unemployment - highest since November 2021
In the week ending June 28, 2025, U.S. seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell slightly to 233,000, down 4,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 237,000. The 4-week moving average declined by 3,750 to 241,500, though it remains elevated, marking the highest level since early 2024. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3% for the week ending June 21, with the number of continued claims unchanged at 1,964,000. However, the 4-week average of insured unemployment rose by 15,500 to 1,954,000—the highest since November 2021—suggesting growing labor market slack. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims rose to 231,548, but this increase was smaller than seasonal expectations. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate also ticked up to 1.3%, with continued claims rising 2.6% to over 1.9 million. Compared to the same week in 2024, both initial and continued claims were higher. Among states, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Puerto Rico reported the highest insured unemployment rates at 2.2%, while the largest increases in claims occurred in New Jersey, Connecticut, and Oregon. Conversely, notable declines were seen in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Overall, while the headline number of new claims moderated slightly, persistent elevation in continued claims points to a gradually weakening labor market.
US job openings surged by 374,000 to 7,769 million but with public sector hiring cooling
07/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral as US job openings remain resilient with strong private sector hiring offset by weaker public sector hiring
In May 2025, U.S. job openings surged by 374,000 to 7.769 million, the highest level since November 2024 and far above the market forecast of 7.3 million, signaling a strong rebound in labor demand. The accommodation and food services sector led the increase with 314,000 new openings, followed by finance and insurance, which added 91,000.
However, federal government openings declined by 39,000, indicating weakness in public sector hiring.
Regionally, the South saw the largest jump with +310,000 openings, followed by the Midwest (+97,000) and Northeast (+45,000). The West was the only region to post a decline, losing 77,000 job openings.
Overall, the data highlight resilient private-sector hiring demand, especially in service industries, despite broader signs of labor market cooling.
ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.0 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, remain in contraction
07/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction zone
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.0 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, beating expectations of 48.8 but still signaling contraction in the manufacturing sector for the fourth straight month. While overall activity remains subdued, the pace of decline eased, reflecting a rebound in production (50.3 vs 45.4) and improvements in inventories (49.2 vs 46.7).
However, other key components showed deepening weakness:
New orders fell further (46.4 vs 47.6)
Employment deteriorated (45.0 vs 46.8)
Order backlogs hit a new low (44.3 vs 47.1)
Price pressures intensified slightly, with the Prices Index rising to 69.7, driven in part by tariff-induced cost increases. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries (54.2 vs 56.1) improved, indicating that port-related delays are easing, though delivery times remain somewhat extended. Overall, the data suggest persistent manufacturing weakness, though with some stabilization in output, amid cost inflation and fragile demand.
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 6.3% in June 2025, highest level since September 2020
07/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany Down due to sharp increase in unemployment rate since September 2020
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 6.3% in June 2025, unchanged from May and slightly better than the 6.4% expected, but still the highest level since September 2020. The number of unemployed rose by 11,000 to 2.972 million, just shy of the symbolic 3 million mark, which hasn't been approached in nearly a decade. Although the increase was smaller than the forecasted 15,000, it reflects ongoing labor market strain.
According to labour office head Andrea Nahles, the market "continues to show signs of economic weakness," with unfavorable trends in unemployment and persistent employer hiring caution. Supporting this, job openings dropped to 632,000, down 69,000 from a year earlier, highlighting sluggish hiring demand amid broader economic uncertainty.
Germany’s retail sales fell sharply by 1.6% month over month in May 2025, significantly below expectations for a 0.5% rise
07/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany Down due to sharp decreased retail sales number
Germany’s retail sales fell sharply by 1.6% month-over-month in May 2025, significantly below expectations for a 0.5% rise and extending the decline from April’s revised 0.6% drop. This marked the second consecutive monthly contraction, with declines seen across food (-1.3%), non-food (-2.2%), and online sales (-1.4%), pointing to broad-based weakness in consumer demand.
On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 1.6%, but this also fell short of the 3.3% market forecast and slowed from April’s revised 2.9% growth. The annual increase was supported by modest gains in food sales (+0.5%), stronger growth in non-food items (+2.0%), and a notable 9.3% jump in online sales, though the momentum clearly softened. Overall, the data suggest fragile consumer spending amid persistent economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
Chicago Business Barometer edged down to 40.4 from 40.5 in May 2025, missing expectations of 43
07/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to decrease of Chicago Business Barometer in May 2025
In June 2025, the Chicago Business Barometer edged down to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, missing expectations of 43 and remaining firmly in contraction territory for the 19th consecutive month. The index is now 7.2 points below March’s recent peak of 47.6, signaling worsening business conditions in the Chicago region. The decline was led by sharp drops in supplier deliveries (-6.8 pts), production (-2.7 pts), employment (-3.9 pts), and order backlogs (-1.5 pts)—the latter hitting its lowest level since May 2020, with only 4% of firms reporting larger backlogs, near a record low. Inventories also fell 8 points, indicating tighter stock management. The only bright spot was a 4.1-point rebound in new orders, though not enough to offset broader weakness. At the same time, prices paid surged 8.3 points, the highest since May 2022, with 70% of businesses facing higher input costs, highlighting rising cost pressures amid weak demand.
UK economy grew by 1.3% year over year, slightly below expansion of 1.5% expansion in Q4 2024
07/01/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to slightly lower Year over Year economy growth in Q1 2025
In Q1 2025, the UK economy grew by 1.3% year-on-year, in line with the initial estimate but slightly below the 1.5% expansion in Q4 2024. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.7%, marking the strongest growth in a year. The services sector was the main driver on the production side, expanding 1.4%, with construction also rising 1.2%, while the production sector was flat. On the expenditure side, household spending increased 0.9%, and gross fixed capital formation surged 3.5%, boosted by a 6.1% jump in business investment. Government spending also rose by 1.5%, but net trade dragged on growth, with exports down 0.5% and imports up 7.5%, indicating strong domestic demand but rising trade imbalances.
US Personal Income fell by 0.4%, showing first decline since September 2021 and sharp reversal from April’s gain
06/27/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down with first Personal Income decline since September 2021
In May 2025, U.S. personal income fell by 0.4%, the first decline since September 2021 and a sharp reversal from April’s revised 0.7% gain, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase. The drop was driven by a 2.2% fall in transfer receipts (like government benefits) and a 2.3% decline in proprietors' income, while asset income was flat, as a small rise in interest income was offset by a dip in dividends. On the positive side, employee compensation rose 0.4%, supported by gains in wages and wage supplements. Disposable personal income declined by 0.6%, and after adjusting for inflation, real disposable income fell by 0.7%, highlighting reduced consumer purchasing power.
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000 in the week ending June 21, 2025, continuous jobless claims climbed to 1.974 million
06/26/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down with continuous jobless claims climbed to 1.974 million, highest level since November 2021
In the week ending June 21, 2025, U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000, following an upward revision to the prior week’s figure. Despite the decline, the 4-week moving average remained elevated at 245,000, suggesting persistent labor market softness. Meanwhile, continuing claims—reflecting the number of people receiving benefits—rose by 37,000 to 1.974 million in the week ending June 14, the highest level since November 2021. The 4-week average of continuing claims also climbed to 1.941 million. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims dropped 4% to 227,080, outperforming seasonal expectations. However, unadjusted insured unemployment increased sharply by over 58,000 to 1.87 million. States with the highest insured unemployment rates included New Jersey, California, and Massachusetts, while Pennsylvania and several other northern states posted the largest weekly increases in claims. Overall, the data points to a cooling labor market, with rising continuing claims signaling growing difficulty in finding reemployment.
US Corporate profits fell 3.3% quarter over quarter to $3.204 trillion in Q1 2025, reversing gain in Q4 2024
06/26/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down with declining profit margin with slowing economic momentum
Corporate profits in the U.S. fell 3.3% quarter-over-quarter to $3.204 trillion in Q1 2025, reversing the 5.9% gain in Q4 2024. This final figure was slightly better than the preliminary estimate of a 3.6% drop. Undistributed profits plunged 11%, reflecting weaker reinvestment, while net cash flow (adjusted for inventory valuation) declined 4.3%, both softening from earlier estimates. In contrast, net dividends increased 1.8%, up from 0.5% in Q4. Despite the quarterly setback, profits rose 5.5% year-over-year, indicating still-resilient annual earnings growth amid slowing economic momentum.
US GDP contracted by 0.5% annualized rate in Q1 2025
06/26/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down with GDP rate contracts by 0.5%, first contraction in three years
The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% annualized in Q1 2025, a steeper decline than the previously reported 0.2% drop, marking the first quarterly contraction in three years. The downgrade was mainly due to sharply lower consumer spending (0.5% vs 1.2%)—its weakest pace since 2020—and reduced export growth (0.4% vs 2.4%). Imports surged 37.9%, slightly below earlier estimates, as businesses front-loaded purchases ahead of tariff hikes. Federal government spending fell 4.6%, the largest drop since early 2022. While fixed investment climbed 7.6%, showing strength in business spending, it wasn’t enough to offset the broader drag from weaker demand and trade imbalances.
France’s consumer confidence remained unchanged at 88 in June 2025 with worsening outlook
06/24/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Down with expectation of declining consumer outlook of economy
France’s consumer confidence remained unchanged at 88 in June 2025, below the long-term average of 100 and matching December 2024’s low, reflecting persistent caution among households. While personal financial expectations and inflation views stayed steady, outlook for future living standards worsened slightly. However, concerns about future unemployment eased, and households expressed increased optimism about their saving capacity and intentions, signaling cautious financial behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price rose 3.4% YoY in April 2025, down from 4.1% in March
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to gradually lowering Housing price increase
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year in April 2025, down from 4.1% in March and below the expected 4% gain, marking the slowest increase since August 2023. The deceleration reflects base effects and higher mortgage rates driven by rising long-term Treasury yields. Regionally, New York (+8.0%), Chicago (+6.0%), Detroit (+5.5%), and Cleveland (+5.2%) saw the strongest gains, while home prices declined in Dallas (-0.2%) and Tampa (-2.2%).
S&P Global US Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 in June 2025 from 53.0 in May
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States neutral as Composite PMI remained steady in June 2025
The S&P Global US Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 in June 2025 from 53.0 in May, signaling a slight easing in private sector growth but marking the 29th consecutive month of expansion. Services output moderated (53.1), while manufacturing held firm at a 15-month high (52.0). Business activity and new orders grew, though momentum slowed due to falling exports amid rising trade tariffs—especially a sharp decline in service exports. Employment continued to rise, but price pressures intensified, driven by tariffs, financing, wage, and fuel costs. Still, cost and price increases in services eased somewhat. Business confidence edged down.
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in June 2025 from 50.3 in May 2025
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom neutral as Composite PMI remained steady at 50.7 in June 2025
The S&P Global US Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 in June 2025 from 53.0 in May, signaling a slight easing in private sector growth but marking the 29th consecutive month of expansion. Services output moderated (53.1), while manufacturing held firm at a 15-month high (52.0). Business activity and new orders grew, though momentum slowed due to falling exports amid rising trade tariffs—especially a sharp decline in service exports. Employment continued to rise, but price pressures intensified, driven by tariffs, financing, wage, and fuel costs. Still, cost and price increases in services eased somewhat. Business confidence edged down.
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in June 2025 from 50.3 in May 2025
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom neutral as Composite PMI remained steady at 50.7 in June 2025
The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 50.7 in June 2025 from 50.3 in May, slightly above expectations and signaling a second month of private sector expansion. Growth was driven by the services sector (51.3), which offset a slower contraction in manufacturing (47.7). Aggregate new business rose for the first time since November 2024, supported by improved domestic demand, though export orders continued to fall due to concerns over US tariffs.
HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI held steady at 50.2 in June 2025, slightly below expectations of 50.5
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe neutral as Composite PMI remained steady at 50.2 in June 2025
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI held steady at 50.2 in June 2025, slightly below expectations of 50.5, indicating continued but modest growth for the sixth straight month. Services activity stagnated (50.0), while manufacturing remained in contraction (49.4). New orders declined slightly, marking the softest drop in a 13-month downturn, with export demand weakened by a softer euro and US tariff uncertainty. Firms drew down backlogs, leading to a marginal rise in employment. Input cost inflation eased for the fourth month, though service firms increased export prices. Business confidence improved to its highest level since January.
HCOB Flash Composite PMI for Germany improved from 48.5 to 50.4 in June, exceeding expectations
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany neutral as Composite PMI improved in June but with mild contraction in manufacturing and services sector
Germany's HCOB Flash Composite PMI rose to 50.4 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, exceeding expectations and signaling the first private sector expansion in six months. Growth was driven by a strong manufacturing performance (PMI at 52.6, a 27-month high), while the services sector remained in mild contraction. New orders rose for the first time in over a year, pointing to improving demand, though firms continued to cut jobs. Business optimism dipped slightly. Inflation pressures were mixed—output prices rose more quickly, but input cost inflation eased to its lowest level since October 2023.
HCOB Flash Composite PMI for France fell to 48.5 from 49.3 in May, below expectations
06/23/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Down due to continuous reduction of Composite PMI indicating slow down of manufacturing output
In June 2025, the HCOB Flash Composite PMI for France fell to 48.5 from 49.3 in May, below expectations, marking the tenth straight month of contraction. The downturn deepened due to persistently weak demand, with manufacturing output slumping to a four-month low (47.8) and services activity nearly flat (48.7). Sales, including exports, declined for the 13th consecutive month, prompting continued job cuts amid reduced backlogs. While input cost inflation remained steady, subdued demand kept selling price increases modest. Despite the deterioration, business confidence rose to its highest level in eight months.
Federal Reserve kept federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%
06/18/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to risk of high interest rates keeping inflation low and driving liquidity to low level
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth straight meeting in June 2025, maintaining a cautious approach as it assesses the effects of President Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxation. While economic uncertainty has eased somewhat, it remains elevated. The Fed still projects two rate cuts in 2025, followed by just one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027. In updated forecasts, the Fed lowered its GDP growth outlook to 1.4% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, with inflation expectations revised upward to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Unemployment is expected to rise to 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
Initial Jobless Claims declined by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 with upward revision from previous week
06/18/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to softening labor market with increasing unemployment and economic uncertainty ahead
Initial jobless claims declined by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000, while the prior week's figure was revised up to 250,000. The 4-week moving average rose to 245,500, the highest since August 2023. Continuing claims for the week ending June 7 dipped by 6,000 to 1.945 million, with the 4-week average increasing to 1.926 million—the highest since November 2021. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims fell by 10,160 to 235,709, exceeding seasonal expectations. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%, with 1.82 million continuing claims. Total benefit claims across all programs rose to 1.85 million as of May 31. The largest increases in initial claims came from California, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, while Kentucky and North Dakota saw the biggest declines.
The Bank of Japan held short term interest rate at 0.5%, in line with market expectations
06/16/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan neutral as short term interest rate was held at 0.5%
The Bank of Japan held its short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its June 2025 meeting, the highest level since 2008, in line with market expectations. The decision, made unanimously, reflects the central bank’s cautious approach amid heightened geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, following stalled trade talks between Tokyo and Washington at the G7 Summit in Canada. Reinforcing its gradual policy normalization, the BoJ confirmed it will reduce Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then taper the pace to JPY 200 billion per quarter until March 2027, aiming for a stable monthly purchase level of approximately JPY 2 trillion.
Initial jobless claims held steady at 248,000, suggesting ongoing economic softening
06/14/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to softening labor market and economic uncertainty ahead
In the first week of June 2025, US initial jobless claims held steady at 248,000, matching the previous week's revised figure and defying expectations for a drop to 240,000. This marks the highest level since October 2024, suggesting early signs of labor market softening amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The four-week moving average rose by 5,000 to 240,250, its highest since August 2023. Continuing claims surged by 54,000 to 1.956 million, the most since November 2021 and well above the expected 1.91 million. Notably, federal employee claims edged up to 561, amid continued fallout from layoffs at the Department of Government Efficiency.
US producer prices rose 0.1% month over month, fell short from expectation
06/14/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to drop producer price index indicating decrease in price
In May 2025, US producer prices rose 0.1% month-over-month, rebounding from a revised 0.2% decline in April but falling short of the expected 0.2% increase. Goods prices rose 0.2%, driven by higher costs for tobacco (+0.9%), gasoline, poultry, coffee, natural gas, and oilseeds, while jet fuel prices plunged 8.2%. Service costs edged up 0.1%, with notable gains in machinery and vehicle wholesaling (+2.9%) and several retail categories, though airline passenger services dropped 1.1%. Core PPI rose just 0.1%, below the 0.3% forecast. Annually, headline PPI increased 2.6%, matching expectations, while the core rate eased to 3.0% from 3.2%, slightly below the projected 3.1%, signaling moderating underlying inflation pressures.
UK economy shrank by 0.3% month over month, showing sharpest decline since October 2023
06/14/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to shrinking economic conditions in April 2025
In April 2025, the UK economy shrank by 0.3% month-over-month, its sharpest decline since October 2023 and the first contraction in six months, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% drop. The downturn followed a 0.2% gain in March and was driven by higher energy and service costs, increased employer National Insurance contributions, higher Stamp Duty Land Tax rates, and new US tariffs. Services output—key to the economy—fell 0.4%, with steep drops in legal activities (-10.2%), advertising (-3.4%), and wholesale trade (-3.2%). Industrial production declined 0.6%, including a 0.9% fall in manufacturing and a 4.3% drop in utilities. Construction was the only bright spot, rising 0.9%. Still, GDP rose 0.7% in the three months to April, suggesting some underlying momentum despite the monthly setback.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-over-month, down from April’s 0.2%
06/14/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to slowly easing consumer price index down from 0.2% increase and below market expectations
In May 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-over-month, down from April’s 0.2% increase and below market expectations. Shelter and food prices each rose 0.3%, with both food at home and away from home contributing equally. Energy prices declined 1.0%, mainly due to falling gasoline costs. Price gains were seen in medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings, personal care, and education, while declines occurred in airline fares, used and new vehicles, and apparel—highlighting mixed inflation pressures across categories.
UK unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6% in the three months to April 2025
06/10/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to smallest gain of 89,000 to 34.01 mil this year.
The UK unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6% in the three months to April 2025, up from 4.5% and in line with expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2021. The increase reflects moderating wage growth amid higher payroll taxes and a 6.7% hike in the national minimum wage. Unemployment increased across both short- and long-term durations.
Employment rose by 89,000 to 34.01 million—its smallest gain this year—driven by both part-time and full-time job growth.
Second-job holders increased to 4% of the workforce, while the economic inactivity rate fell to 21.3%.
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead dropped to 3.2% in April
06/09/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due dropping US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead in April.
In May 2025, U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead dropped to 3.2%, down from 3.6% in April, marking a three-month low. Expectations for price increases declined across several key categories: gas (to 2.7%), medical care (to 7.4%), college education (to 7.5%), and rent (to 8.4%). However, food price expectations rose to 5.5%, the highest since October 2023. Longer-term inflation expectations also eased, with the three-year outlook falling to 3.0% and the five-year to 2.6%, indicating moderating consumer concerns about future inflation.
US job market’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% with downward revision of 95,000 in previous quarter
06/07/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to downward revision indicating higher unemployment rate than 4.2% from the previous period
The U.S. job market showed mixed signals in May 2025. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, continuing a trend of stability since May 2024. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 jobs, slightly below the 12-month average. Key sectors like healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance saw job gains, while federal government employment declined. The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, and the employment-population ratio fell to 59.7%, indicating some contraction in workforce engagement. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $36.24, reflecting a 3.9% increase over the past year. However, downward revisions to March and April employment figures suggest some underlying weakness. Overall, while the job market shows resilience in some areas, there are signs of potential challenges, including declining workforce participation and slower job growth in certain sectors.
Japan’s economic outlook faces challenges in April-May 2025 with leading economic index fell to 103.4
06/07/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to leading economic index fell to 103.4 in April 2025
Japan's economic outlook appears to be facing challenges as of April-May 2025. The leading economic index fell to 103.4 in April, its lowest since August 2020, indicating a weakening economic outlook. This decline coincided with a drop in household spending and a six-month low in total employment. However, there are some positive signs: consumer sentiment improved slightly in May, recovering from a two-year low in April, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5%. Despite these mixed signals, the overall trend suggests economic difficulties ahead for Japan, with the leading indicators falling below market expectations. This situation calls for careful monitoring of Japan's economic performance in the coming months.
US initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 247,000, the highest level since October 2024
06/07/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to increasing seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in May 2025
In the week ending May 31, 2025, U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000, the highest level since October 2024 and above expectations of 235,000, suggesting early signs of labor market softening. The prior week's figure was revised down to 239,000, while the four-week moving average climbed by 4,500 to 235,000, its highest since January. Continuing claims, which reflect longer-term unemployment, edged down by 3,000 to 1,904,000 in the week ending May 24, and the insured unemployment rate fell to 1.2%. However, the four-week average for continuing claims rose to 1,895,250—the highest since November 2021—indicating a gradual rise in persistent unemployment. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims fell slightly to 208,642 but remained higher than a year earlier. Federal employee claims dropped modestly, while continued claims from that group rose. The highest insured jobless rates were in New Jersey (2.2%) and California and Washington (2.1%). Michigan, Nebraska, and California posted the largest increases in new claims, pointing to localized labor disruptions.
US factory orders fell 3.7% in April 2025, showing steeper than expected drop
06/07/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to US factory orders decline
U.S. factory orders fell 3.7% in April 2025 to $594.6 billion, the first decline in five months and steeper than the expected 3% drop. The fall was driven by a sharp 17.1% decline in transportation equipment, especially a 51.5% plunge in nondefense aircraft orders as tariff uncertainty led to reduced demand for Boeing jets, which saw only eight orders. Other declines included primary metals (-0.1%)—notably aluminum and nonferrous metals—and electrical equipment (-0.3%). Offsetting gains came from computers and electronics (+1%), machinery (+0.6%), and fabricated metals (+0.9%). Durable goods shipments edged up 0.3%, unfilled orders were flat, and inventories rose 0.2%.
Job openings in US changed little and stayed at 7.4 million in April
06/07/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral as job opening remained steady compared to previous month
Job openings in the U.S. were little changed at 7.4 million (4.4%) in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with notable declines in accommodation and food services (-135K) and state/local government education (-51K), while arts, entertainment, and recreation (+43K) and mining/logging (+10K) saw increases. Hires held steady at 5.6 million (3.5%), with no significant change across industries. Total separations were flat at 5.3 million (3.3%), including stable levels of quits (3.2M, 2.0%) and layoffs (1.8M, 1.1%). Layoffs rose in healthcare/social assistance (+52K) but declined in state/local government (ex-education) and federal agencies. Compared to last year, quits were down 220,000, indicating lower worker confidence or mobility. March data was revised modestly: job openings up by 8K to 7.2M; hires down by 7K; separations up by 46K.
Eurozone inflation slowed to 1.9% YoY in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April and below ECB’s 2.0% target
06/06/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Euro down as high interest rates drove slowdown of economy since September 2024
Eurozone inflation slowed to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April and below the ECB’s 2.0% target for the first time since September 2024. The deceleration, driven by a sharp drop in services inflation (3.2% vs. 4.0%) and continued declines in energy prices (-3.6%), supports expectations for a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB this week and raises the likelihood of further easing. Core inflation fell to 2.3%, its lowest since January 2022, while non-energy industrial goods inflation remained flat at 0.6%. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 3.3%, slightly faster than April’s 3.0% increase.
US construction spending fell 0.4% in April 2025 due to fall in private spending
06/02/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuous decline of construction spending
U.S. construction spending fell 0.4% in April 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, following a revised 0.8% drop in March and missing expectations of a 0.3% gain. The decline was driven by a 0.7% fall in private spending, as residential construction dropped 0.9%—notably new single-family projects (-1.1%)—amid high borrowing costs, tariff-driven input inflation, and elevated inventories. Nonresidential private spending also dipped 0.5%, with religious structures leading the decline. Public construction rose 0.4%, led by gains in commercial (+3.8%), healthcare (+3.3%), and office (+1.2%) building, though public residential spending fell 0.6%. Year-over-year, total construction outlays declined 0.5%.
ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped 48.5 from 48.7 in April, missing expectations of 49.5, marking consecutive contraction
06/01/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to consecutive contraction of manufacturing PMI
In May 2025, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 from 48.7 in April, missing expectations of 49.5 and marking the third straight month of contraction and the steepest decline since November 2024. The report highlighted growing economic uncertainty and sustained cost pressures, largely due to volatile trade policies under the Trump administration. Key subindices—output, new orders, employment, and backlogs—all declined, though less severely than before. New export orders fell more sharply, and inventories moved back into contraction as prior pre-tariff stockpiling faded. Supplier delivery times remained extended, signaling ongoing port bottlenecks. While price growth from tariffs moderated, it remained historically high.
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 4.1 points to 40.5 in May 2025
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to consecutive decline and lowest level since January 2025
The Chicago Business Barometer™ dropped 4.1 points to 40.5 in May 2025, marking its second consecutive decline and the lowest level since January. The index has now remained below the neutral 50 mark for 18 straight months, signaling persistent contraction in business activity.
New Orders fell sharply by 6.0 points to 35.2, the lowest since December and 13 points below March’s peak.
Order Backlogs plunged 8.5 points to 29.1, matching the lowest reading since May 2024.
Production slipped 4.0 points to 43.9, below its 12-month average.
Employment rose significantly by 8.3 points to 45.9, the strongest since December, as firms chose to maintain headcount.
Supplier Deliveries jumped 5.3 points to 58.5, with a notable increase in respondents reporting slower deliveries.
Prices Paid eased slightly to 76.5, though no respondents reported price declines for the fourth straight month.
Inventories declined to 49.5, still above March’s low of 34.8.
Special Survey Insights:
Nearly 41% of firms are considering delays in capital investments amid economic uncertainty.
41% plan to moderately increase raw material inventories, while another 7% expect significant builds.
The results reflect broad-based weakness in demand, ongoing cost pressures, and cautious business sentiment shaped by tariffs, trade disruptions, and global supply uncertainties.
University of Michigan final consumer sentiment revised up to 52.2 in May 2025 and remained at 2022 lows
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuously low consumer sentiment
U.S. consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was revised up to 52.2 in May 2025 from a preliminary 50.8, matching April’s reading and remaining at 2022 lows. The upward revision was attributed to improved sentiment in the latter half of the month following a temporary pause on some China tariffs. The expectations index rose to 47.9 from 47.3, while the current conditions gauge slipped to 58.9 from 59.8. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up slightly to 6.6% from 6.5%, but marked the smallest increase since the election, ending a streak of sharp monthly rises. Long-term inflation expectations were revised down to 4.2%, the lowest since March.
US PCE Index and inflation slows down, marking lowest value since 2021
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuous lowering inflation, indicating higher chance of deflation
The U.S. core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose by 0.1% month-over-month in April 2025, matching market expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased by 2.5%, down from 2.7% in March, marking the slowest annual rise since March 2021. The data signals continued disinflationary progress, potentially reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate adjustments.
U.S. PCE inflation rose 0.1% month-over-month in April 2025, following no change in March and matching expectations. Goods and services prices each increased 0.1%, with energy prices rebounding 0.5% and food prices falling 0.3%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.1%, in line with forecasts. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation eased to 2.1%, a seven-month low, down from 2.3%, while core PCE slowed to 2.5% from a revised 2.7%, its lowest since March 2021. The data supports a continued disinflation trend, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious policy outlook.
Canada’s GDP grew by 0.1% in April 2025, matching estimate and expectation
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to slowing down GDP growth Month over Month since January 2025
Canada’s economy likely grew by 0.1% in April 2025, matching March’s pace, according to advance estimates. Growth was led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, along with finance and insurance, while manufacturing declined. In March, goods-producing industries rose 0.2%, driven by a 2.2% rebound in resource extraction and a 0.5% increase in construction. Services grew 0.1%, supported by retail trade (+0.8%), transportation and warehousing (+0.8%), and food services (+1.4%). For Q1 2025, GDP rose 0.5%, the same as in Q4 2024, with growth fueled by goods exports and inventory accumulation, though higher imports and weak housing resales limited the overall expansion.
Germany retail sales dropped by 1.1% month over month in April 2025
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to retail sales drop in April 2025, indicating continuous slowing spending habit
Germany’s retail sales dropped by 1.1% month-over-month in April 2025, marking the first decline in four months and falling short of expectations for a 0.2% rise. The drop followed a revised 0.9% gain in March and was driven by a 1.3% decline in non-food sales, a 0.1% dip in food sales, and a 0.2% decrease in online sales. However, year-over-year retail sales grew by 2.3%, supported by gains in both food (+2.3%) and non-food (+2.6%) sectors, while online sales surged 14.1%. The data suggests short-term weakness but ongoing annual recovery in consumer spending.
Japan’s industrial production declined by 0.9%, reversing March’s 0.2% gain
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to reversal of industrial production decline in April 2025
Japan’s industrial production declined by 0.9% month-over-month in April 2025, reversing March’s 0.2% gain but beating market expectations of a 1.1% drop. This was the second monthly decline of the year, driven by sharp contractions in production machinery (-8.7%), transport equipment excluding motor vehicles (-7.0%), and fabricated metals (-3.7%). Despite the monthly drop, industrial output grew 0.7% year-over-year, down from 1.0% in March, marking the third straight month of annual expansion. The data suggests weakening momentum in manufacturing amid continued sector-specific volatility.
Japan’s unemployment remained unchanged and steady at 2.5% in April 2025
05/31/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan neutral as unemployment remained steady compared to previous month
Japan’s unemployment rate held steady at 2.5% in April 2025, meeting market expectations. However, underlying labor market conditions weakened as the number of unemployed rose by 30,000 to a nine-month high of 1.76 million, and employment declined by 40,000 to a six-month low of 68.04 million. The labor force contracted slightly by 20,000, while the non-seasonally adjusted participation rate rose to 63.7%, its highest in ten months. The jobs-to-applicants ratio remained unchanged at 1.26, indicating continued tightness in job availability despite signs of softening labor dynamics.
US initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 240,000 in the week of May 24th 2025, showing rising layoffs and slower hiring
05/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to rising unemployment and initial jobless claims
U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 240,000 for the week ending May 24, 2025, the highest in a month and above expectations of 230,000, while the prior week’s figure was revised down to 226,000. The four-week average edged slightly lower to 230,750. Continuing claims increased by 26,000 to 1.919 million for the week ending May 17—the highest level since November 2021—pushing the insured unemployment rate up to 1.3%. Unadjusted claims also rose more than expected, and federal civilian and veteran claims saw modest increases. The data indicates a softening labor market, with rising layoffs and slower hiring amid growing economic uncertainty.
Euro Area consumer confidence improved by 1.4 points to -15.2 from -16.6 in April but remained cautious
05/27/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Euro Area down due to only slight amount of improvement
Euro Area consumer confidence improved in May 2025, with the indicator rising by 1.4 points to -15.2 from -16.6 in April, matching preliminary estimates. In the broader EU, sentiment also gained 1.4 points. The improvement was driven by easing pessimism over the general economic outlook, along with rebounds in consumers’ expectations for their household finances and plans for major purchases. However, views on past financial conditions remained mostly unchanged, suggesting cautious optimism amid persistent economic challenges.
Germany’s Gfk Consumer Climate Indicator improved slightly to -19.9 from -20.8 in May
05/27/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to improved consumer climate but still at negative territory
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator improved slightly to -19.9 heading into June 2025 from -20.8 in May, marking its highest level since November 2024 and the third straight monthly rise. The gain was driven by sharply higher economic expectations (13.1, a two-year high) and stronger income expectations (10.4). However, consumer caution persisted, as willingness to buy declined (-6.4) and saving propensity rose (10.0). Despite the improvement, sentiment remains historically low, weighed down by uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, stock market volatility, and fears of a third consecutive year of stagnation.
France’s consumer confidence dropped to 88 in May 2025, down from revised 91 in April 2025
05/22/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France down due to decreasing consumer confidence continuously
France’s consumer confidence dropped to 88 in May 2025, down from a revised 91 in April and well below expectations of 93, marking the weakest sentiment since December and staying far under the long-term average of 100. Households grew more pessimistic about their future financial situation (-14) and living standards (-59, a 2-year low). Intentions to make major purchases declined (-27), saving expectations slipped slightly (10), and concerns about unemployment surged to 61, the highest since May 2015. Inflation expectations also edged higher, signaling broad economic anxiety among consumers.
US initial jobless claims dropped 2,000 from prior week but 4-week moving average increased by to 231,500, highest since 2021
05/22/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to increasing 4-week moving average with rising unemployment
U.S. Unemployment Claims – Week Ending May 17, 2025:
Initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted): 227,000 (↓ 2,000 from prior week)
4-week moving average: 231,500 (↑ 1,000) – highest since Nov 2021
Insured unemployment rate (week ending May 10): 1.2% (unchanged)
Insured unemployment level: 1.903 million (↑ 36,000 from revised 1.867 million)
Unadjusted initial claims: 202,088 (↓ 1.8% WoW; vs. 192,717 in same week 2024)
Unadjusted insured unemployment: 1.789 million (↑ 1.1% WoW; vs. 1.687 million in 2024)
Notable State-Level Changes:
Biggest increases in claims: Massachusetts (+3,410), Virginia (+1,272), Pennsylvania (+595)
Biggest decreases: Michigan (-5,827), California (-1,861), Ohio (-868)
While initial claims fell slightly, continued claims rose, and the 4-week average hit a 3.5-year high—suggesting a gradual loosening in labor market conditions, especially among those remaining unemployed for longer.
Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index fell by 0.8% month over month in April 2025, exceeding expectations
05/22/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to drop in Fed National Activity Index, indicating decline of activity
Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) fell by 0.8% month-over-month in April 2025, exceeding expectations of a 0.5% drop and ending a six-month streak of increases. The decline was led by a 3.6% fall in energy and petroleum products, particularly diesel fuel (-4.1%) as crude oil prices slumped (-9.4%). Excluding energy, the IPPI still declined 0.5%, driven by currency pressures. Non-ferrous metals fell 2.8%, lumber dropped 4.4% (softwood lumber -11.1% on tariff concerns), and vehicle prices declined 0.9%. However, food prices rose, with canola oil (+8.4%) and beef (+4.8%) up on export demand and tight supply. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 2.0%. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) fell 3.0% on the month and 3.6% annually, reflecting broad input cost relief for manufacturers.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.25 in April 2025 from 0.03 in March 2025
05/22/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to drop in Fed National Activity Index, indicating decline of activity
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.25 in April 2025 from a revised +0.03 in March, signaling below-trend economic growth. Three of the four major components contributed negatively: production-related indicators fell sharply (-0.18 vs -0.07), sales/orders/inventories weakened (-0.04 vs +0.06), and personal consumption/housing also declined (-0.04 vs +0.09). Employment indicators were neutral, improving from a -0.05 drag in March. The data reflects a broad-based softening in economic activity, led by manufacturing and consumer sectors.
UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in April 2025 from 2.6% in March 2025
05/22/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK neutral as inflation picked up again after consecutive decline of price
UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in April 2025 from 2.6% in March, the highest rate since January 2024 and above expectations of 3.3%. The surge was driven by a sharp rise in housing and utilities costs (7.8% vs 1.8%), particularly electricity (+4.6%) and gas (+12.2%), due to the Ofgem price cap hike. Transport inflation rose to 3.3%, boosted by new Vehicle Excise Duties on electric vehicles. Food and beverages (+3.4%) and recreation (+3.1%) also added upward pressure. Clothing and footwear prices fell (-0.4%), partially offsetting the overall rise. Core inflation signals remained elevated despite some easing in rent increases.
Germany’s producer price fell by 0.9% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the second consecutive monthly decrease
05/22/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to continuous drop of producer prices in April 2025
Producer prices in Germany fell by 0.9% year-on-year in April 2025, following a 0.2% drop in March and worse than market forecasts of a 0.6% decline, marking the second consecutive monthly decrease. The latest figure also represented the steepest decline since last October, mainly driven by lower energy prices (-6.4%), with electricity prices falling 7.5%, natural gas down 6.2%, and district heating decreasing by 0.1%. Conversely, prices for non-durable consumer goods increased by 3.2%, and durable consumer goods climbed by 1.4%. Also, the cost of capital goods rose by 2.0%, particularly in machinery (1.9%) and motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers (1.4%). Additionally, prices of intermediate goods advanced by 0.3%. Excluding energy, producer prices rose by 1.5%. On a monthly basis, the PPI shrank by 0.6%, marking the fifth straight month of decline, after a 0.7% drop in the previous month and missing the market consensus of a 0.3% fall.
Michigan consumer sentiment dropped for fifth straight monthly decline and a 30% drop since January 2025
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuous down trend of consumer sentiment since January 2025
US consumer sentiment edged down slightly in May 2025, falling 1.4 points to 50.8, marking the fifth straight monthly decline and a nearly 30% drop since January, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary survey. While sentiment among independents ticked up, it fell 7% among Republicans, reflecting growing economic pessimism despite the recent pause on some China tariffs. Nearly 75% of consumers mentioned tariffs as a concern, up from 60% in April, highlighting the ongoing impact of trade policy uncertainty. Personal finance assessments dropped nearly 10% on weakening incomes, and inflation expectations surged, with year-ahead forecasts rising from 6.5% to 7.3% and long-term expectations increasing from 4.4% to 4.6%.
France’s unemployment rate edged up to 7.4% Quarter over Quarter in Q1 2025
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France down due to edging up unemployment rate
France's unemployment rate edged up to 7.4% in Q1 2025 from 7.3% in the previous quarter, aligning with market expectations, as the number of unemployed persons rose by 64,000 to 2.4 million. Youth unemployment (ages 15-24) remained elevated at 19.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter and 1.1 points higher year-on-year. The jobless rate for those aged 25 to 49 held steady at 6.7%, while the rate for those 50 and over remained at 4.7%, 0.3 points lower than a year earlier. By gender, the unemployment rate for women increased by 0.3 points to 7.4%, matching the nearly unchanged rate for men. The labor force participation rate rose to 75.1%, up from 74.6% in the previous quarter.
Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.2% Quarter over Quarter in Q1 2025
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to decline in GDP Quarter over Quarter
Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, the first decline in a year, missing market expectations of a 0.1% drop and reversing from 0.6% growth in Q4 2024. The downturn was driven by a 0.8 percentage point drag from net trade, as exports fell 0.6% (the first drop since Q1 2024) while imports rebounded 2.9%. Private consumption, which makes up more than half of GDP, was flat, missing forecasts of a 0.1% gain, and government spending also stalled after three consecutive quarters of growth. However, business investment surged 1.4%, the strongest rise since Q2 2024. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank 0.7%, worse than the expected 0.2% decline and a sharp reversal from the 2.4% growth in the previous quarter.
United States’ Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output experienced slight decline
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to decline in industrial production and manufacturing output.
US industrial production was flat in April 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.2% increase, as a 0.4% drop in manufacturing and a 0.3% decline in mining offset a strong 3.3% rise in utilities output, driven by higher demand for electricity and natural gas. Capacity utilization slipped to 77.7%, 1.9 percentage points below its long-term average, reflecting ongoing slack in the industrial sector.
US manufacturing output fell 0.4% in April 2025, the largest decline since October 2024 and worse than the expected 0.2% drop. Durable goods production slipped 0.2%, driven by a 1.9% decline in motor vehicles and parts, partially offset by a 1% gain in fabricated metal products. Nondurable goods output fell 0.6%, with broad-based declines, including a 2% drop in publishing and logging. Capacity utilization in manufacturing fell 0.4 percentage points to 76.8%, 1.4 points below its long-term average, reflecting continued slack in the sector.
Initial Jobless Claims remained unchanged at 229,000, remained unchanged from prior week
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to continuous upward change on 4-week moving average
In the week ending May 10, 2025, US initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 229,000, matching the revised level from the prior week. The 4-week moving average rose by 3,250 to 230,500, reflecting a slight upward trend. Continuing claims increased by 9,000 to 1,881,000 for the week ending May 3, while the 4-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 750 to 1,873,500. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims fell by 2,630 to 205,183, while the unadjusted insured unemployment level dropped by 55,447 to 1,782,918, maintaining a 1.2% unemployment rate. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), and Washington (2.1%), while Michigan saw the largest weekly increase in initial claims (+6,869) and New York the largest decrease (-15,228).
United States PPI fell by 0.5% in April 2025, marking the first decline since October 2023
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to falling producer prices for the first time
US producer prices fell by 0.5% in April 2025, marking the first decline since October 2023 and the steepest drop since April 2020, defying expectations of a 0.2% increase. The decline was driven by a record 0.7% fall in service costs, including a 1.6% drop in trade services, as businesses likely absorbed some of the impact from higher tariffs. Excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing, service prices fell 0.3%, while transportation and warehousing costs declined 0.4%. Goods prices were flat, with a 1.0% drop in food and a 0.4% decrease in energy offsetting gains in other components. On a year-over-year basis, PPI inflation eased to 2.4%, the lowest since September 2024 and slightly below the 2.5% forecast.
United Kingdom GDP growth 0.7% in first quarter and 1.3% YoY
05/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK neutral as GDP growth improved slightly both MoM and YoY
The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 0.1% in the previous quarter and 1.3% higher than a year earlier. This expansion was driven by a 0.7% increase in the services sector, led by gains in administrative and support services (+3.3%) and wholesale and retail trade (+1.6%), along with a 1.1% rise in production, supported by manufacturing (+0.8%) and water supply (+4.0%). However, construction remained flat, and mining fell by 0.5%. Expenditure growth was underpinned by a 2.9% rise in gross fixed capital formation, including a 5.9% increase in business investment, while household consumption rose 0.2% and net trade improved as exports climbed 3.5%. Nominal GDP increased by 1.6%, driven mainly by a 1.4% rise in employee compensation, while GDP per head grew by 0.5%, reversing two consecutive quarterly declines.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2025 rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, lower than the expectation
05/13/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral as CPI moves towards a more stable state with disinflation records showing up
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2025 shows a mixed economic picture. The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.3% over the last 12 months and rose 0.2% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. While food prices slightly decreased overall, with a 0.4% drop in at-home food prices, energy prices saw an increase of 0.7%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in April and 2.8% over the past year. Notable changes include a 0.3% monthly increase in shelter costs, a 0.5% rise in medical care, and decreases in used car prices and airline fares. Other inflation measures, such as the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) and the Chained CPI-U, both increased by 2.1% over 12 months.
United States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8, lowest since October 2024
05/13/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to low small business optimism index
In April 2025, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8, a 1.6-point decrease from March and the lowest since October 2024, though still surpassing the expected 94.5. The Uncertainty Index also declined by 4 points to 92, retreating from February's record high but remaining well above its historical average of 68, indicating persistent concerns about trade policy unpredictability. Business owners' expectations for improved conditions dropped 6 points to 15%, largely due to increased US government tariffs, while the outlook for higher real sales fell 4 points to a net -1%. In the labor market, 34% of owners reported unfilled job vacancies, a 6-point decrease from March and the lowest level since 2021, suggesting a potential easing in hiring challenges for small businesses.
United Kingdom’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from January to March with employment grew with smallest increase
05/12/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom down due to increase in unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.4%
The United Kingdom's labor market showed signs of softening in early 2025, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% from January to March, the highest level since August 2021. This increase came after four periods of stability at 4.4%. While employment grew by 112,000 to reach 33.98 million, this was the smallest increase in recent months, primarily due to a decline in full-time positions. Notably, unemployment increased across all duration categories. The data also revealed a rise in individuals holding second jobs, now accounting for 3.9% of the employed population, potentially indicating a need for additional income among workers. Despite these challenges, the economic inactivity rate decreased to 21.4%, suggesting more people are entering the job market. Overall, these figures point to a slight weakening in the UK's labor market conditions.
Japan Leading Economic Indicators Index fell to 107.7 in March 2025 from February 2025
05/09/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to fall in leading economic indicator
Japan's leading economic indicators index fell to 107.7 in March 2025 from an upwardly revised 108.2 in February, marking its lowest level since last November. The decline reflects weakening economic momentum as consumer sentiment hit its lowest point since February 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in March from 2.4% in February, with overall employment showing a slight decline, signaling potential challenges for the labor market.
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March, continued with uptrend
05/09/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to increase of unemployment rate in April 2025
Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April 2025, up from 6.7% in March and exceeding market expectations of 6.8%, marking its highest level in over three years. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 39,300 to 1,548,100, reflecting the growing impact of US tariffs on Canadian industries. Despite this, net employment rose by 7,500, surpassing the expected 2,500 gain, partially offsetting the 32,600 job losses recorded in March. The manufacturing sector was particularly affected, shedding 31,000 jobs due to higher tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automotive products. Meanwhile, the labor force expanded, pushing the participation rate up by 0.1 percentage points to 65.3%.
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000, down from the previous week’s unrevised 241,000.
05/08/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with stable initial jobless claims number compared to previous week.
For the week ending May 3, 2025, US initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000, down from the previous week's unrevised 241,000. The four-week moving average rose slightly by 1,000 to 227,000. The insured unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% for the week ending April 26, with insured unemployment falling by 29,000 to 1,879,000, following a downward revision in the prior week. Unadjusted initial claims dropped by 16,972 to 206,937, exceeding the expected seasonal decline, while unadjusted insured unemployment fell by 52,707 to 1,845,566. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), and California (2.3%). The largest increases in claims were seen in New York (+15,418) and Massachusetts (+3,301), while the biggest declines occurred in Connecticut (-2,340) and Rhode Island (-1,850).
Federal Reserve maintained Fed Fund Target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable labor market conditions
05/07/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with Fed Fund Rate remaining at 4.25% to 4.50% due to possible inflation pressure under trade tariff
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable labor market conditions, solid economic activity, and somewhat elevated inflation. The Committee remains focused on achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% target but noted increased uncertainty around the economic outlook, with rising risks of both higher unemployment and inflation. The Fed will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities, while closely monitoring labor market trends, inflation pressures, and global financial developments to assess the need for future rate adjustments. All 12 voting members, including Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair John Williams, supported the decision, with Neel Kashkari participating as an alternate member.
United Kingdom Composite PMI dropped to 48.5 in April 2025
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom down due to both manufacturing and service remained in contraction territory
The S&P Global UK Composite PMI dropped to 48.5 in April 2025 from 51.5 in March, revised slightly higher from the preliminary 48.2 but still below initial forecasts of 50.4. This marked the first contraction in overall UK economic activity since October 2023, driven by declines in both manufacturing (45.4 vs 44.9) and services (49.0 vs 52.5), with the latter contracting for the first time in 17 months. New business fell for the fourth consecutive month as client confidence weakened amid financial market turbulence and US tariffs. Employment also declined as firms delayed hiring amid rising wage and National Insurance costs. Business confidence hit its lowest level since 2022, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty.
Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April 2025 from 51.9 in March 2025, below market expectations
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China down due to further contraction of service activities in April 2025
The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April 2025 from 51.9 in March, below market expectations of 51.7, marking the slowest growth in the sector since September 2024. New orders expanded at their weakest pace in 28 months as US tariff disruptions weighed on trade, despite a slight uptick in export demand from tourism. Employment declined for the second straight month amid rising costs, with input price inflation reaching a three-month high due to higher labor and material expenses. Output prices continued to fall for the third consecutive month as firms cut prices to stay competitive. Business sentiment dropped to its second-lowest level since records began in 2005, reflecting mounting concerns over trade policy uncertainties.
ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April 2025 from 50.8 in March but still really close to contraction territory
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with US Services PMI remained close to contraction territory
The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April 2025 from 50.8 in March, surpassing forecasts of 50.6 and signaling a stronger-than-expected rebound in the services sector. New orders (52.3 vs 50.4) and inventories (53.4 vs 50.3) expanded at a faster pace, while business activity remained in growth territory despite slowing (53.7 vs 55.9). Employment contracted for the third consecutive month, though at a reduced pace (49.0 vs 46.2), and supplier deliveries slowed (51.3 vs 50.6). Price pressures surged to a two-year high (65.1 vs 60.9), driven by tariff impacts, with respondents highlighting actual price increases over future concerns. Despite ongoing challenges from federal budget cuts, overall sector sentiment improved.
S&P US Composite PMI revised down to 50.6 from 51.2, marking the weakest expansion in US private sector
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to further contraction of private sector in United States
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for April 2025 was revised down to 50.6 from a preliminary 51.2, marking the weakest expansion in the U.S. private sector since September 2023. Growth slowed significantly from March’s 53.5 reading as policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, constrained demand. New business rose modestly, but business confidence fell to its lowest in two and a half years. Employment remained steady, while input cost pressures eased slightly but remained high due to tariff impacts, prompting firms to raise selling prices at the fastest pace since last September.
S&P Canada Composite PMI dropped to 41.7 from 42, indicating continuous contraction
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to private sector further contracted in April 2024
Canada’s private sector activity contracted further in April 2024, with the S&P Global Composite PMI dropping to 41.7 from 42, the steepest decline since June 2020 and the fifth straight month in contraction. Both manufacturing and services saw similar declines in output, while new orders fell sharply. Employment was cut for a fourth month amid weak demand and minimal capacity pressure. Although business sentiment slightly improved, it stayed historically low. Input cost inflation eased to a three-month low but remained high, while output prices declined for the first time in over four years due to subdued demand.
Weaker US Dollar suggested that a potential reduction in trade deficits
05/03/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with US rebalancing import and export through weakening US dollars
A weaker U.S. dollar, as suggested by the potential breakdown in the DXY chart, would make American exports cheaper and more competitive globally, supporting efforts to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Historically, periods of dollar weakness—such as 2002 to 2011—coincided with attempts to boost domestic production and reduce trade deficits. A lower dollar discourages imports by raising their cost while encouraging foreign demand for U.S. goods, thereby improving the trade balance. This environment creates favorable conditions for reshoring industrial activity, aligning with broader economic and policy goals aimed at revitalizing U.S. manufacturing.
Crude Oil Futures predicting a further decline in economy and deflation
05/03/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Global down with significant and continuous decreasing oil future price
Crude oil futures have dropped sharply to $58.38, breaking below key support levels and continuing a clear downtrend. All major moving averages are sloping downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum, while the RSI approaches oversold territory, suggesting possible—but not confirmed—short-term stabilization. This decline in oil prices reinforces market expectations of disinflation, as it points to weaker global demand or oversupply. If prices remain low, it could ease inflation pressures and increase the likelihood of more accommodative central bank policies ahead.
Berkshire Hathaway reported Q1 loss with cash pile surged to $347.7 billion
05/02/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with Berkshire Hathaway’s investment strategy remains conservative due to uncertain economic climate
Berkshire Hathaway reported a 14% drop in Q1 2025 operating earnings to $9.64 billion, its steepest quarterly decline since 2020, largely due to a 49% plunge in insurance underwriting income, which was hit by wildfire-related losses and foreign exchange impacts. Net income fell sharply by 64% to $4.6 billion, driven by a $7.4 billion unrealized loss on equity investments. Despite this, the company’s insurance investment income rose 11%, and its key subsidiaries—BNSF Railway and Berkshire Hathaway Energy—posted solid gains of 6.2% and 53%, respectively. Berkshire remained a net seller of stocks for the tenth straight quarter, but its cash pile surged to a record $347.7 billion, reflecting Warren Buffett’s caution amid limited attractive investment opportunities.
Euro Area unemployment rate held steady at 6.2% in March 2025, slightly above expectations of 6.1%
05/02/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Euro down due to increasing trend of unemployed individuals
The Euro Area unemployment rate held steady at a record low of 6.2% in March 2025 for the sixth month in a row, slightly above expectations of 6.1%. Despite the steady rate, the number of unemployed people rose by 83,000 to 10.818 million. The youth unemployment rate (under 25) improved slightly, dipping to 14.2% from 14.3%. Among major economies, Germany (3.5%) and the Netherlands (3.9%) posted the lowest unemployment, while Spain (10.9%), France (7.3%), and Italy (6%) remained elevated. The jobless rate is down from 6.5% a year ago, signaling continued labor market resilience.
US economy added Nonfarm payroll jobs 177,000 and unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, prior months job gains revised lower
05/02/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to heavy downward revision in previous months and unemployment rate not going downwards
The U.S. economy added 177,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in April, aligning closely with the 12-month average of 152,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.2 million people unemployed, largely unchanged. Job growth was concentrated in health care (+51K), transportation and warehousing (+29K), financial activities (+14K), and social assistance (+8K). Federal government employment declined by 9,000, contributing to a total loss of 26,000 since January.
Wages rose moderately: average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% (6 cents) to $36.06, with a 3.8% annual gain. The average workweek remained flat at 34.3 hours. Long-term unemployment rose to 1.7 million, now accounting for 23.5% of the unemployed. Labor force participation (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.0%) were both unchanged. Revisions to prior months’ data lowered February and March job gains by a combined 58,000 jobs.
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 was revised up to 45.4 from the preliminary 44.0
05/01/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to continued contraction of UK Manufacturing activity
The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 was revised up to 45.4 from the preliminary 44.0, modestly above March’s 44.9 but still firmly indicating contraction. The sector remained under significant pressure as output fell due to weakening demand at home and abroad amid rising economic and trade uncertainty. Employment declined for the sixth straight month, with job losses at their second-highest rate in nearly five years. Backlogs of work were cleared at the fastest pace in 17 months. Inflationary pressures worsened, with input costs rising at the quickest rate since December 2022 and output prices accelerating to a 26-month high. Business sentiment weakened sharply, as confidence hit a 29-month low, with only 47% of firms expecting output growth in the year ahead.
Initial Jobless Claims in the US increased sharply by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, 2025
05/01/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to sudden spike of initial jobless claims that exceed expectation
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased sharply by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, 2025, the highest level since February and well above the expected 224,000. Unadjusted claims also rose by 12,901 to 223,614, with the largest increases seen in New York (+15,525) and Massachusetts (+3,251). Continuing claims, representing those still receiving benefits, jumped by 83,000 to 1.916 million for the week ending April 19—marking the highest level since November 2021 and exceeding forecasts of 1.86 million. Meanwhile, federal employee claims fell slightly by 187 to 470, though many DOGE-related terminations reportedly came with severance packages that delay eligibility for unemployment benefits.
PCE inflation stands at 2.3% and core PCE at 2.6% with disposable personal income increased by $102 billion
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with inflation rate remaining steady and modest growth of personal income and disposable income
In March 2025, U.S. personal income rose by $116.8 billion (0.5%), driven primarily by higher compensation, especially in service industries, and gains in proprietors’ income, notably farm-related due to emergency aid payments. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by $102.0 billion (0.5%), while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $134.5 billion (0.7%), split between goods ($54.5B) and services ($79.9B).
Personal outlays rose $136.6 billion, and personal saving reached $872.3 billion, putting the personal saving rate at 3.9%.
Price pressures remained subdued:
The PCE price index was flat month-over-month (0.0%)
The core PCE (excluding food and energy) also showed no change
Year-over-year, PCE inflation stood at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.6%
US Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3% compared to 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 2024 due to cut in government spending
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to real GDP decline with cut on government spending
In Q1 2025, U.S. real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3%, reversing the 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 2024. The downturn was primarily driven by a surge in imports (which subtract from GDP) and a drop in federal government spending, particularly defense. These were only partially offset by gains in consumer spending, investment, and exports. Despite the headline contraction, real final sales to private domestic purchasers (a key measure of private sector demand) rose 3.0%, up slightly from 2.9% in Q4.
Inflation pressures intensified:
The gross domestic purchases price index rose 3.4% (vs. 2.2% in Q4)
The PCE price index climbed 3.6% (vs. 2.4%)
Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 3.5% (vs. 2.6%)
On the trade side, the rise in imports was driven by increased purchases of consumer goods (notably pharmaceuticals) and capital goods (like computers), while silver bar imports—treated as a store of value—were excluded from investment calculations. Consumer spending remained resilient, with gains in healthcare, housing, and utilities, though durable goods spending declined.
Germany’s unemployment rate held at 6.3% in April 2025
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to unemployment rate remained high and in record high since 2020
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.3% in April 2025, its highest since 2020 and matching expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 4,000 to 2.922 million, a smaller increase than the forecasted 15,000 to 20,000, suggesting some stabilization in the labor market. However, job vacancies declined by 55,000 year-over-year to 646,000, indicating weakening labor demand. Despite 0.2% GDP growth in Q1 2025, Germany's economy faces mounting pressure from industrial sluggishness and trade tensions, with the government projecting flat economic growth for the year and a persistently elevated jobless rate.
France’s annual inflation rate remained steady at 0.8% for the third consecutive month
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France neutral with inflation rate remaining steady with low move of inflation rate
In April 2025, France’s annual inflation rate remained steady at 0.8% for the third consecutive month—the lowest since February 2021—matching expectations. A sharper drop in energy prices (-7.9%) was offset by rising food inflation (1.2%), particularly in fresh products (4.0%). Inflation for services (2.3%) and tobacco (4.1%) remained stable, while manufactured goods continued to deflate (-0.2%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5%, the highest since August 2024, driven by increases in transport services and food. The EU-harmonized inflation rate dipped to 0.8% year-on-year but climbed 0.6% month-on-month.
France GDP grew 0.1% quarterly growth in Q1 2025, recovering from contraction in Q4 2024
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France neutral with France GDP moved slightly out of contraction from last quarter
France’s economy eked out 0.1% quarterly growth in Q1 2025, recovering from a slight contraction in Q4 2024 but missing forecasts of 0.2%. Inventory accumulation was the main driver (+0.5 percentage points), as final domestic demand made no contribution and net trade weighed on GDP. Household spending stagnated due to weaker goods purchases, though service consumption helped offset the dip. Government spending slowed, and fixed investment declined for a second quarter, particularly in construction and manufactured goods. Exports dropped sharply despite a temporary pause in U.S. tariffs, while imports continued to rise. On an annual basis, GDP grew 0.8%, slightly above expectations and matching the revised Q4 rate.