France’s economy grew 0.2% quarter over quarter in Q4 2025, slowed down from 0.5% in Q3 2025
02/01/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Down due to slow down of quarter over quarter growth in Q4 2025
France’s economy grew 0.2% quarter over quarter in Q4 2025, slowing from 0.5% in Q3 and matching market expectations, according to flash estimates, marking the weakest pace of expansion in three quarters. The deceleration reflected softer domestic demand, as government consumption growth cooled to 0.3% from 0.7% and fixed investment slowed sharply to 0.2% from 0.7%, led by weaker spending on transport equipment, capital goods, and construction. Inventories continued to be a significant drag, subtracting around 1.0 percentage point from growth, underscoring cautious business behavior. By contrast, household consumption accelerated to 0.3% from 0.1%, supported by firmer goods spending and sustained momentum in services consumption. External trade was the main growth offset, with net exports contributing a sizable 0.9 percentage point, as imports fell 1.7% after rising in Q3, more than compensating for a sharp slowdown in export growth to 0.9% from 3.2%. On a year-over-year basis, GDP rose 1.1%, up from 0.9% in Q3 but slightly below expectations of 1.2%, nonetheless marking the strongest annual expansion in five quarters and highlighting the economy’s continued, though uneven, resilience in France.
Japan’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6% in December 2025, extending a four month plateau
01/30/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral due to unemployment remain unchanged, demonstrating healthy labor market demand
Japan’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6% in December 2025, extending a four-month plateau and remaining the highest since July 2024, yet still low by historical standards. The number of unemployed increased 50,000 to 1.86 million, while employment declined by 50,000 to 68.46 million, reflecting a parallel 50,000 drop in the labor force to 70.31 million rather than a rise in layoffs. Consistent with that dynamic, the population outside the labor force rose 50,000 to 39.27 million, highlighting demographic and participation effects rather than labor-market stress. The labor force participation rate slipped to 63.9% from 64.1% in November but remained 0.5 percentage point above year-earlier levels, signaling a still-elevated engagement trend versus 2024. Importantly, job matching conditions improved modestly, with the jobs-to-applicants ratio edging up to 1.19 from a near three-year low, beating expectations of 1.18 and indicating that available positions continue to exceed job seekers. Overall, the data point to a labor market that is cooling at the margin but remains structurally tight, with movements driven more by participation shifts than by rising unemployment pressure in Japan.
Initial unemployment claims fell slightly to 209,000 in the week ending January 24, with improvement of insured unemployment
01/30/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to improvement of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment declining and slight fall in initial unemployment claims in the week of January 24
Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims fell slightly to 209,000 in the week ending January 24, down 1,000 from the prior week, while the four-week moving average rose to 206,250, up 2,250, but remained close to its lowest level in a year. Continuing claims showed a clearer improvement, with seasonally adjusted insured unemployment declining by 38,000 to 1.827 million, the lowest level since September 21, 2024, and the four-week average falling to 1.867 million. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, underscoring limited slack at the margin. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims dropped sharply by 41,255 to 231,181, while insured unemployment fell 82,168 to 2.15 million, both outperforming seasonal expectations. Total continued claims across all programs decreased by 69,868 to 2.27 million, now slightly below year-ago levels. Regionally, the highest insured unemployment rates were reported in Rhode Island (2.9%), New Jersey (2.8%), Massachusetts (2.7%), and Washington (2.7%), while the largest weekly increases in initial claims occurred in California (+5,504) and Kentucky (+2,817), offset by notable declines in New York (-9,464) and Texas (-4,440). Taken together, the data reinforce the narrative of a labor market that remains tight, with layoffs subdued and continuing claims trending lower, even as weekly volatility persists.
Metropolitan Capital Bank And Trust of Chicago was closed on January 30th 2026
01/30/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to Bank Failures starting to appear in the market
Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust of Chicago was closed on January 30, 2026, by the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, with the FDIC appointed as receiver. The FDIC entered into a purchase-and-assumption agreement with First Independence Bank of Detroit, which will assume substantially all of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust’s deposits and purchase about $251 million of its assets. The bank’s sole office will reopen as a branch of First Independence Bank on February 2, 2026, during normal business hours. Depositors will automatically become customers of First Independence Bank, with all assumed deposits remaining fully insured by the FDIC and accessible without interruption through checks, ATMs, and debit cards. As of September 30, 2025, Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust reported $261.1 million in assets and $212.1 million in deposits. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition and estimates the failure will cost the Deposit Insurance Fund approximately $19.7 million. This marks the first U.S. bank failure of 2026.
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its January 2026 meeting
01/30/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Neutral due to overnight rate being unchanged to maintain the current economic condition
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its January 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations and prior guidance, judging the current policy stance to be appropriate given its baseline economic outlook. While the central bank largely reaffirmed the projections from its October Monetary Policy Report—expecting GDP growth of just over 1% in 2026 and around 1.5% in 2027, with inflation remaining close to the 2% target—it emphasized elevated uncertainty stemming from renewed U.S. tariff threats. Policymakers warned that potential trade disruptions could materially affect the outlook and said monetary policy may need to be adjusted in either direction should risks intensify, even as trade-related cost pressures are currently expected to be offset by excess supply in the economy.
ADP National Employment Report in December 2025 showed modest rebound in US private-sector hiring
01/28/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to rebound of private sector hiring even facing high interest rate environment and difficult for business borrowing
The December 2025 ADP National Employment Report showed a modest rebound in U.S. private-sector hiring, with payrolls rising by 41,000 after a revised 29,000 decline in November. Job gains were concentrated in service-providing industries, particularly education and health services and leisure and hospitality, while goods-producing sectors recorded a small net decline led by manufacturing losses. Hiring dynamics diverged by firm size, as small and medium-sized businesses added jobs and recovered from November weakness, but large employers saw only marginal gains. Regionally, job growth was strongest in the South and Northeast, offset by sizable losses in the West. Wage growth remained steady for job-stayers at 4.4% year over year, while pay gains for job-changers accelerated to 6.6%, indicating continued tightness in certain segments of the labor market despite overall subdued job creation.
Japan’s leading economic index rose to 110.5 in November 2025 from 109.8 in October
01/24/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral due to improving leading economic index rose to 110.5 in November 2025
Japan’s leading economic index rose to 110.5 in November 2025 from 109.8 in October, beating market expectations and reaching its highest level since May 2024, signaling an improving outlook for the months ahead. The increase was driven largely by stronger consumer sentiment, which climbed to an 18-month high, alongside a labor market that continued to show resilience, with employment hitting a fresh record despite the unemployment rate holding steady at 2.6%. While cost pressures are still expected to persist toward year-end, the broader data suggest that household spending is gradually recovering, pointing to a modest but ongoing improvement in Japan’s economic momentum.
Bank of Japan held its key short-term policy rate steady at 0.75% at its first meeting of 2026
01/23/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral due to high short term interest rates to maintain the high interest rates to keep inflation under control
The Bank of Japan held its key short-term policy rate steady at 0.75% at its first meeting of 2026, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995 ahead of February’s snap election. The widely expected decision passed by an 8–1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike, while the majority judged risks to growth and inflation to be broadly balanced. Policymakers reiterated that further rate increases remain possible, following two hikes in 2025, should economic activity and inflation track their projections. In its updated quarterly outlook, the BoJ revised up its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7%, citing support from a recent trade deal with Washington and a sizable fiscal stimulus package that includes energy subsidies, expanded local government grants, and higher defense spending. The FY 2026 growth outlook was also raised to 1.0% from 0.7%, alongside a slight upward revision to the FY 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.9%.
US initial jobless claims remained low in mid-January, showing continued labor market resilience
01/23/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to consumer sentiment index revised higher to 56.4 in January 2026, marking slight improvements from December’s 52.9
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was revised higher to 56.4 in January 2026, up from a preliminary 54.0 and December’s 52.9, marking the second consecutive monthly improvement and the strongest reading since August. Gains were modest but broad-based, spanning all major components of the survey as well as income, education, age, and political groups. Despite the improvement, overall sentiment remains more than 20% below its level a year earlier, underscoring persistent caution among households. Consumers continue to point to strained purchasing power from elevated prices and rising concern about a potential softening in labor market conditions, while foreign developments appear to have little impact on their outlook beyond tariff-related issues. Notably, year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.0%, the lowest since January 2025, even as longer-run inflation expectations edged slightly higher to 3.3%.
US initial jobless claims remained low in mid-January, showing continued labor market resilience
01/22/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to stable initial jobless claims in mid January despite slight increase in the insured unemployment
U.S. initial jobless claims remained low in mid-January, pointing to continued labor market resilience. For the week ending January 17, seasonally adjusted initial claims edged up slightly by 1,000 to 200,000, while the four-week moving average fell to 201,500, its lowest level since mid-January 2024. Insured unemployment held steady at 1.2% for the week ending January 10, and the number of continuing claims declined by 26,000 to 1.85 million, with the four-week average also trending lower. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims dropped sharply by more than 71,000 following seasonal distortions earlier in the month, broadly in line with expectations. Total continued claims across all programs increased modestly, reflecting some persistence in benefit durations, while no states triggered extended benefits. Overall, the data suggest limited layoffs and stable labor market conditions despite regional volatility and ongoing adjustments in federal and veteran-related claims.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose for a second straight month to 99.5 in December 2025
01/15/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to increasing optimism of NFIB Small Business Optimism Index but weakening forward-looking indicators
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose for a second straight month to 99.5 in December 2025, its highest reading since August and slightly above its 52-year average of 98, supported mainly by a sharp improvement in expectations for business conditions, with the net share of owners anticipating better conditions jumping 9 points to 24%. Profit trends showed modest improvement, with the net balance rising 3 points to -20%, while assessments of current business health were mixed, as 9% of owners rated conditions as excellent, 54% as good, 34% as fair, and 3% as poor. Despite the firmer headline sentiment, forward-looking indicators weakened, with plans for hiring, capital spending, and expectations for higher real sales all declining. Taxes emerged as the most significant concern, cited by 20% of respondents—up 6 points from November and the highest share since May 2021—while overall uncertainty eased notably, with the Uncertainty Index falling 7 points to 84, its lowest level since June 2024.
U.S initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 198,000, with continuous unemployment and insurance edged down
01/15/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to stabilized initial jobless claims number and stable continuous unemployment and insurance number
U.S. unemployment insurance data for the week ending January 10 pointed to continued resilience in the labor market, with seasonally adjusted initial claims falling by 9,000 to 198,000, while the four-week moving average declined to 205,000—its lowest level since January 2024. Continuing claims also eased, as insured unemployment fell by 19,000 to 1.884 million and the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, suggesting limited layoff pressure. In contrast, unadjusted data reflected expected post-holiday volatility, with initial claims rising by nearly 32,000 and insured unemployment increasing as seasonal effects unwound. Continued weeks claimed across all programs climbed to about 2.22 million, driven largely by seasonal factors rather than a clear deterioration in underlying labor-market conditions.
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread turned positive after the longest inversion in history
01/10/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to concerns of financial instability due to long period of interest rate inversion
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread turned positive to about 0.64 percentage points as of early January 2026, marking a clear re-steepening of the curve after the prolonged inversion seen during 2022–2024. That earlier inversion reflected aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and strong recession signals, while the recent move back into positive territory suggests markets are increasingly pricing in easier monetary policy ahead, with short-term yields declining faster than long-term rates. Historically, recessions tend to occur during or shortly after inversions, whereas the re-steepening phase often aligns with late-cycle slowing or the early stages of policy easing rather than the start of a robust expansion. As a result, the current modestly positive slope points to reduced near-term financial stress but does not yet signal a strong growth rebound, especially given ongoing labor-market cooling and lingering inflation uncertainty.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged higher, although concerns of inflation still impact consumers
01/09/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to concerns of prices and consumer sentiments still linger with the impact of high inflation.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged higher for a second straight month, rising to 54.0 in January 2026—its highest reading since September 2025 and slightly above expectations—reflecting a modest improvement in household economic perceptions. The gains were driven largely by lower-income consumers, while sentiment among higher-income households softened. Despite the recent uptick, overall sentiment remains about 25% below its level a year earlier, underscoring persistent concerns about elevated prices and a cooling labor market, even as worries about tariffs have begun to ease. Short-term inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.2%, the lowest since early 2025 but still well above year-ago levels, while long-term inflation expectations edged up to 3.4%, hinting at lingering inflation unease among consumers.
U.S. unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4% in December 2025, coming in below expectations, payroll growth slowed to 50,000
01/09/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to revised rising unemployment rate and slowdown of payroll growth to just 50,000 jobs. 2025 delivered the weakest annual employment gain since 2003.
The U.S. unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4% in December 2025, coming in below expectations and retreating from November’s four-year high, signaling tentative stabilization in labor market conditions. The improvement was driven by a sizable drop in the number of unemployed alongside solid employment gains, even as the labor force contracted slightly and participation ticked down. Importantly, broader labor market slack also eased, with the U-6 unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in several months. Overall, the data suggest that while hiring momentum remains uneven and participation has softened, pressures in the labor market are no longer intensifying and may be beginning to ease at the margin.
The December jobs report pointed to a markedly softer labor market backdrop, with payroll growth slowing to just 50,000 jobs and confirming that 2025 delivered the weakest annual employment gain since 2003. While the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%, the modest improvement in joblessness contrasts with the pronounced slowdown in hiring momentum over the past
Canada’s unemployment rate edged up to 6.8% in December 2025, exceeding expectations
01/09/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to rising unemployment rate and showing slowdown of economy
Canada’s unemployment rate edged up to 6.8% in December 2025, exceeding expectations, as a surge of new labor market entrants outweighed modest job gains. The increase partly reversed the notable declines seen over the previous two months, reflecting stronger participation rather than outright job losses. While employment continued to improve for a fourth consecutive month—driven by a solid rise in full-time positions—this was offset by a sharp drop in part-time work. Overall, the data point to a labor market that is still adding jobs but facing renewed slack as improved confidence draws more people back into the workforce.
Private sector employment rebounded by 41,000, fell short of expectations of 47,000 increase
01/08/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to increase falling short from expectation and hiring concentration is not in business, information and manufacturing but education and health
Private sector employment in the U.S. rebounded by 41,000 jobs in December 2025, recovering from a revised 29,000 decline in November, though the gain fell slightly short of expectations for a 47,000 increase. Hiring was concentrated in services, led by education and health services (+39K) and leisure and hospitality (+24K), alongside moderate gains in trade, transportation and utilities, financial activities, and construction. These increases were partly offset by continued job losses in professional and business services, information, and manufacturing, highlighting uneven momentum across sectors. By firm size, small businesses returned to modest growth, medium-sized firms drove most of the gains, and large firms added very few jobs. Wage dynamics remained mixed: pay growth for job-stayers held steady at 4.4% year over year, while job-changers saw faster wage gains at 6.6%, signaling persistent competition for labor in select areas despite overall subdued hiring conditions.
Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ending January 3rd, continuing claims rise
01/08/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rising initial jobless claims and higher continuing claims, with insured unemployment rising to 1.91million
Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ending January 3, up 8,000 from the prior week, but remained at levels consistent with a still-resilient labor market. Notably, the four-week moving average fell to 211,750, its lowest reading since April 2024, highlighting the ongoing absence of a sustained pickup in layoffs. At the same time, continuing claims ticked higher, with insured unemployment rising to 1.91 million and the insured unemployment rate holding at 1.2%, suggesting that while layoffs remain limited, reemployment is taking somewhat longer. Unadjusted data showed larger seasonal increases typical for early January, including a jump in state insured unemployment, but year-ago comparisons were broadly stable. Overall, the report points to low firing activity alongside gradually softening labor-market turnover, consistent with a cooling—but not deteriorating—employment backdrop.
The employment gauge of the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 44.9 in December 2025
01/06/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral due to ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed slightly but still remained under the historical average of 50.1
The employment gauge of the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up modestly to 44.9 in December 2025 from 44.0 in November, but it remained firmly in contraction territory, marking a tenth consecutive month below the 50 threshold. Despite the slight improvement, the reading underscores continued weakness in manufacturing labor demand, with firms still prioritizing headcount management over hiring amid elevated costs and uncertain demand.
Historically, the index has averaged about 50.1 since 1950, highlighting how subdued current conditions remain relative to long-term norms, even though the latest reading is well above the extreme lows seen during past downturns.
Japan’s S&P Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in December 2025, highest reading since August
01/04/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral due to better manufacturing number in November, signaling ease of manufacturing downturn
The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in December 2025, up from 48.7 in November and above expectations, marking its highest reading since August and signaling that the manufacturing downturn is beginning to ease. Demand conditions improved, with goods demand contracting at the slowest pace in around 18 months, although export orders continued to fall amid weak external demand. Employment expanded, reflecting firmer domestic demand conditions, while the decline in unfinished work softened to an 18-month low, suggesting stabilization in production pipelines. On the inflation front, input cost pressures intensified, with operating cost inflation accelerating to its strongest pace in eight months. Looking ahead, business confidence remained constructive, with manufacturers expecting output to grow through 2026, supported by anticipated demand improvements, new product launches, and expansion into new markets.