10-year Treasury yield held near 5.3% in early October 2026, with the curve still positively sloped after the long inversion
10/07/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to the 20-plus-year yield grinding higher, lifting the term premium, cheapening long-duration Treasuries and raising the discount rate on long assets
The 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.31% on October 5, 2026, little changed from 5.28% on October 2 and roughly 1.1 percentage points above its level a year earlier, based on daily constant-maturity data. The 2-year was about 4.84% the same day, and the 30-year was about 5.66%. The 10-year minus 2-year spread was about 0.47 percentage points, so the benchmark curve remained upward-sloping rather than inverted.That slope is a clear change from the long inversion of 2022–2024. The re-steepening has come with short rates below intermediate and long rates: bill and front-end yields were clustered near 4.0%–4.5% into early October, while the 5-year was about 5.06%, the 7-year about 5.19%, and the 20-year about 5.70% on October 5. Markets are no longer pricing the aggressive tightening that produced the inversion. They are still requiring a high coupon to hold duration.The mix points to sticky term premium and inflation risk rather than a clean growth boom. Real (inflation-indexed) 10-year yields were still near 2.9% in the October 6 H.15 release, so a large part of the nominal 10-year is real yield, not just expected CPI. Long yields near the highest levels since the mid-2000s also sit against federal debt above $40 trillion and a heavy Treasury issuance calendar. Higher coupons raise the interest bill as older, cheaper debt rolls, which feeds back into supply.For markets, a 10-year near 5.3% and a 30-year near 5.7% keep mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs elevated and cap how far equity multiples can expand on easier policy alone. The positive 10s–2s spread reduces the classic inversion signal, but the level of yields—not the slope—is the constraint. The next test is whether long rates ease with softer labor and goods data, or stay pinned by supply, energy-linked price pressure, and the fiscal path.
20-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.73% on October 7, 2026, after a September monthly average of 5.40%, up 18 basis points from August
10/07/2026 10:50 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to the 20-plus-year yield grinding higher, lifting the term premium, cheapening long-duration Treasuries and raising the discount rate on long assets
The 20-year constant-maturity Treasury yield was about 5.73% on October 7, 2026, near the top of a 52-week range that has run from roughly 4.49% to 5.75%. Treasury daily quotes put the 20-year at 5.68% on October 6, up from 5.24% at the August 31 close and 4.73% a year earlier. The 30-year, the other leg of the 20-plus-year complex, was about 5.69%–5.73% the same session, also at a one-year high. A higher yield is a lower price: the sector that TLT and other 20-plus-year funds track has been the part of the curve doing the most damage to duration.The monthly averages show a steady climb rather than a one-day spike. The FRED GS20 monthly average was 5.40% in September, up 18 basis points from 5.22% in August and 11 basis points above July’s 5.11%. That is the largest monthly increase in the past year. From the October 2025 average of 4.61%, the 20-year is up about 79 basis points on a monthly-average basis, and more than that on the spot quote. The 10-year was recently near 5.27%, so the long end is still above the intermediate curve and well above the funds rate.
US Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.2% in September as payrolls rose only 29,000
10/02/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with the unemployment rate still in a narrow 4.1%–4.3% band since March, offset by soft hiring and downward revisions to prior payrolls
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September 2026 from 4.1% in August, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.1 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March and is 0.2 percentage point below the 4.4% reading a year earlier.Among major groups, the unemployment rate for Black workers increased to 7.0%. Rates for adult men (3.9%), adult women (3.6%), teenagers (14.5%), White workers (3.6%), Asian workers (2.9%), and Hispanic workers (4.7%) showed little change. Long-term unemployment, jobless for 27 weeks or more, was essentially unchanged at 1.9 million and accounted for 27.1% of the unemployed.The labor force participation rate was 61.8% and the employment-population ratio was 59.2%, both little changed and with little net change since January. People working part time for economic reasons were little changed at 4.5 million. People not in the labor force who want a job held near 5.8 million. Marginally attached workers fell by 236,000 to 1.5 million, while discouraged workers were little changed at 414,000.On the establishment side, nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, below the average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in every major industry changed little. Health care continued to add jobs (+17,000), but more slowly than its prior 12-month average of +33,000, with gains in ambulatory care (+13,000) and hospitals (+12,000) partly offset by a loss in nursing and residential care (−9,000). Construction was little changed (+11,000) and manufacturing was little changed (+9,000), though manufacturing is up 72,000 since a recent low in December 2025. Financial activities edged down (−7,000) and are down 129,000 since a May 2025 peak.Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81, and are up 3.0% over the year. The average workweek held at 34.4 hours. July payrolls were revised from +21,000 to −10,000, and August from +162,000 to +133,000, so employment in those two months combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.For markets, the mix is a labor market that is no longer tightening and is not breaking: the official rate is only a tenth higher and still range-bound, but hiring is running below its recent pace and recent months were weaker than first reported. The next Employment Situation report, for October, is due Friday, November 6, 2026.
ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.5 in September 2026 from 54.6, a ninth straight month of expansion, while prices jumped to 77.9
10/01/2026 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral-to-Up due to factory demand, backlogs and hiring still expanding, offset by a sharp rise in input prices tied to steel, aluminum, tariffs and energy
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5 percent in September 2026, down 0.1 point from 54.6 in August and a touch below the consensus near 55.0, according to the report issued by Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The sector expanded for a ninth consecutive month, the longest run since 2022, after a prior 10-month contraction. ISM noted that a PMI above 47.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the overall economy, which has now grown for 23 straight months. The September reading is consistent with about 2.4 percent annualized real GDP growth. Demand firmed under the stable headline. New orders rose 1.6 points to 55.3, a ninth month of growth, with five of the six largest industries reporting higher orders. The backlog of orders jumped 4.6 points to 56.4, also a ninth month of expansion. Customers’ inventories fell 1.2 points to 41.6 and remained too low for a 24th month, a level that historically supports future production. New export orders eased 2.3 points to 50.9 but stayed in growth for a third month. Imports slowed to 51.0 from 52.5 and remained above 50 for an eighth month. Output cooled but did not stall. Production fell 1.6 points to 56.7 and has expanded for 11 straight months. Employment rose 1.5 points to 52.7, a third month of growth, though only two of the six largest industries reported higher headcount. Supplier deliveries eased 0.3 point to 59.0 and were still slowing for a 10th month. Raw-materials inventories dropped 2.0 points to 48.6, back into contraction after three months of growth. The main stress was prices. The Prices Index surged 6.8 points to 77.9 from 71.1, the largest move in the report and close to the 78.3 reading in March at the start of the Iran war. About 58.6 percent of respondents reported higher prices, up from 46.2 percent. No commodities were reported down in price. Steel, aluminum, copper, diesel, electronic components and resins were among those listed higher, with panel comments citing tariffs, petroleum-related costs and longer lead times. Sentiment tilted negative: 40 percent of comments were positive and 60 percent negative, with pricing volatility mentioned in 46 percent of negative comments, tariffs in 34 percent and the Iran war in 30 percent. Twelve industries expanded, led by Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Primary Metals. Only Printing & Related Support Activities and Textile Mills contracted. Five of the six largest manufacturing industries grew. For markets, the mix is still expansion rather than a rollover: orders, backlogs and lean customer inventories support factory output into the fourth quarter, and employment has stopped contracting. The offset is the prices print, which reaccelerated toward early-war levels and keeps goods inflation in the policy debate even with the headline PMI only a tenth lower. The next ISM Manufacturing PMI is due in early November.
