Japan’s government bond yield raised to 2000 level as inflation increased after 25 years
12/07/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down due to the bond yield raised to 2000 level that will be impacting the yen carry trade and capital flows
Japan’s government bond yields — particularly the 20-year now approaching 3% — have risen to their highest levels in over a decade, reflecting the Bank of Japan’s exit from ultra-easy monetary policy and rising domestic inflation expectations. This marks a major shift after decades of near-zero or negative rates. As Japanese yields climb, the foundation of the yen carry trade — borrowing cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets — is being challenged. The shrinking rate differential reduces the profitability of such trades and forces global investors to reassess leveraged positions in everything from U.S. credit to emerging-market equities.
When Japanese rates rise, capital tends to repatriate back into Japan, strengthening the yen. A stronger yen tightens financial conditions worldwide, particularly for those who borrowed in yen and invested in risk assets. As the carry trade unwinds, it increases volatility across global markets — especially in sectors reliant on foreign capital flows, including tech stocks, emerging markets, and high-yield corporate debt. In short:
Rising Japanese yields convert the yen from a funding currency into a capital-returning magnet — increasing the risk of a disorderly unwind in global risk assets.
This shift represents not just a domestic monetary transition, but a structural turning point in international capital flows and financial stability dynamics.
Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% from 6.9%, mainly due to part time job growth
12/05/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to lack of full time employment opportunities and most of the unemployed Canadians are forced to accept part-time hours involuntarily
Canada’s labor market showed an unexpectedly strong rebound in November 2025, as the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% from 6.9%—the lowest level in 16 months and sharply below expectations for a rise to 7%. The improvement reflected a notable drop of 80,000 in the number of unemployed Canadians, outpacing a smaller decline in the labor force that brought participation down to 65.1%. Employment posted a solid third month of gains, rising by 53,600 to 21.14 million. However, the growth was driven entirely by part-time roles, which climbed by 63,000, with nearly one in five workers accepting part-time hours involuntarily—highlighting lingering underemployment pressures despite the headline improvement.
US consumer sentiment edged higher by 2.3 points but the improvement is still 12% below start of year with downbeat outlook
12/05/2025 07:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous downbeat outlook and trend of US Consumer Sentiment
U.S. consumer sentiment edged slightly higher in early December, rising 2.3 points, though still within the survey’s margin of error. The improvement was driven mostly by younger consumers and centered on expectations rather than current conditions, with anticipated personal finances up 13% from last month—yet still nearly 12% below levels from the start of the year. Labor market expectations also ticked up but continue to reflect a generally downbeat outlook. Even with these modest gains, consumer attitudes remain subdued as high prices continue to weigh on household budgets. On inflation, year-ahead expectations eased to 4.1%, the lowest since January and marking a fourth straight monthly decline, while long-run expectations slipped to 3.2%, matching January levels. Still, both short- and long-run inflation uncertainty remain elevated compared with the start of the year.
US initial jobless claims dropped by 27,000 to 191,000 but with hiring slowing down, keeping insured unemployment elevated
12/05/2025 07:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to US initial jobless claims dropped along with hiring slow down and insured unemployment staying elevated
US initial jobless claims dropped by 27,000 to 191,000 in the final week of November, hitting their lowest level since September 2022 and coming in far below expectations of 220,000. The decline marked the fourth straight weekly drop, though the Thanksgiving holiday likely amplified volatility. Continuing claims also eased, slipping by 4,000 to 1.939 million in the prior week. Together with recent labor data, the figures suggest that layoffs remain historically low, even as slower hiring has kept insured unemployment elevated relative to the post-pandemic recovery period. Claims filed by federal workers also fell to 1,125, reversing an uptick tied to the recent federal government shutdown.
US 10 year Treasury yield, which is used to predict long term borrowing costs such as mortgage rates and corporate loans, spiked after the initial jobless claims
Private Sector employment (ADP) in US declined by 32,000 jobs in November 2025. Down from 47,000 gain in October
12/05/2025 07:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to ADP employment reversed downwards with a decline of jobs in November compared to October
Private-sector employment in the US declined by 32,000 jobs in November 2025, marking the sharpest drop since March 2023 and a notable reversal from the revised 47,000 gain in October. The downturn was driven entirely by small businesses, which shed 120,000 positions, while medium-sized firms added 51,000 jobs and large employers gained 39,000. Job losses were concentrated in manufacturing (-18K), professional and business services (-26K), information (-20K), construction (-9K), and financial activities (-9K), reflecting broad economic caution. Meanwhile, hiring persisted in education and health services (+33K), leisure and hospitality (+13K), natural resources/mining (+8K), and trade, transportation and utilities (+1K), pointing to resilience in consumer-facing and essential services. Wage growth continued to cool, with pay for job-stayers rising 4.4% and job-changers 6.3%, reinforcing signs of a moderating labor market amid weaker consumer demand and uncertainty around economic conditions.
ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, employment index fell to 44.0
12/01/2025 07:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to consecutive contraction of Manufacturing PMI and Employment Index
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, marking the sector’s ninth straight month of contraction and the weakest reading in four months. The downturn deepened as key components deteriorated: supplier deliveries slowed sharply, new orders weakened further, and the employment index dropped to 44, reflecting continued head-count reductions—67% of firms reported managing staffing levels rather than hiring, the same as in October. Price pressures intensified, with the prices-paid index rising to 58.5, and backlogs contracted more quickly, signaling soft demand. Despite the broad slowdown, production edged back into expansion territory at 51.4, and inventory drawdowns moderated. ISM Chair Susan Spence noted that 58% of the manufacturing economy contracted, unchanged from October, though the share in “strong contraction” eased slightly to 39% from 41%. Overall, the report underscores persistent weakness in demand, elevated cost pressures, and ongoing labor caution heading into year-end.
The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index in the United States fell to 44.0 in November 2025 from 46.0 in October, marking the lowest reading in three months and signaling a deeper contraction in factory hiring. The latest decline underscores persistent labor softness in the manufacturing sector as firms continue to reduce or freeze headcount amid weak demand and elevated economic uncertainty. Historically, the index has averaged 50.08 since 1950, indicating that the current level is well below long-term norms; for perspective, the series reached an all-time high of 73.7 in February 1951 and a record low of 27.8 during the severe downturn of May 1982.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 52.2, suggesting manufactures are cautiously optimistic
11/30/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with Manufacturing PMI at 52.2, with manufacturers remaining cautiously optimistic in production given elevated input price due to tariff
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.2 in November 2025 from October’s 52.5, indicating that the sector continued to expand but at a slightly slower pace. Output growth accelerated to its strongest rate since August, supported by a modest pickup in new orders, though overall demand remained subdued amid ongoing market uncertainty. A striking development was the record surge in finished-goods inventories for the second consecutive month, a sign that sales fell short of expectations. Employment growth improved to a three-month high, reflecting firms’ efforts to meet future demand despite near-term softness. Tariff-related cost pressures kept input inflation elevated, but selling-price inflation eased to one of the lowest readings of the year. Overall business confidence strengthened sharply, reaching its highest level since June, suggesting manufacturers are cautiously optimistic heading into 2026.
Japan’s 10 year yield rising toward 1.85%, highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis, indicating liquidity shortage in yen carry trade
11/30/2025 07:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Global Economy Down due to global liquidity shortage and risk assets being sold by market due to global funding and leverage trend change
Japan’s 10-year yield rising toward 1.85% marks the sharpest sustained climb in over a decade and has major implications for global markets, particularly through the yen carry trade. For years, ultra-low or negative Japanese yields made the yen the world’s preferred funding currency, allowing investors to borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding or riskier assets abroad—from U.S. tech stocks to emerging-market bonds and cryptocurrencies. As JGB yields rise, however, the economics of the carry trade begin to unwind: funding costs increase, yen borrowing becomes less attractive, and periods of yen appreciation can force investors to unwind leveraged positions in risk assets. This dynamic can amplify volatility in global markets, as carry-trade reversals often trigger sharp selloffs in equities and credit. The rise in Japan’s long-term rates also signals a broader normalization of BOJ policy, which further reduces the appeal of yen-funded leverage and tightens an important liquidity channel that risk assets have depended on for more than a decade.
Mexico’s unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in October 2025, below market’s expectations of 2.8%
11/30/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico Neutral with unemployment remained stable
Mexico’s unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in October 2025, slightly higher than the 2.5% seen a year earlier but below market expectations of 2.8%, remaining well under its six-month average. Although net employment increased by 1 million, raising the employed population to 60.9 million, the number of unemployed also rose by 96,000 to 1.6 million, as the labor force participation rate dropped 0.3 points to 59.9%. By gender, male unemployment edged up 0.2 points to 2.7%, while female unemployment dipped 0.1 point to 2.4%, reflecting a mixed but still historically tight labor market.
France’s private payroll employment slipped by 0.1%, indicating a loss of 27,300 jobs
11/28/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Down due to consecutive drop in private payroll employment
Private payroll employment in France slipped by 0.1% in Q3 2025, equivalent to a loss of 27,300 jobs, a smaller decline than the initially estimated 0.3%, and following a 0.2% gain in Q2. Job losses were concentrated in industry (–4,800) while employment in non-market services was essentially unchanged (–800). Permanent and fixed-term contracts excluding work-study increased slightly (+0.1%) but remained below year-ago levels. Work-study contracts saw a sharp 4.6% drop, losing 49,200 positions. On an annual basis, private employment contracted 0.3% (–72,900 jobs), its fourth straight quarter of decline, though total employment remains 5.5% (1.1 million jobs) above pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.
Consumer Confidence in Euro Area remained in the negative sentiment in November compared to October
11/28/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe Down due to continuous negative sentiment in consumer confidence
Consumer confidence in the Euro Area held steady at –14.2 in November 2025, matching October and marking the strongest reading in eight months, though sentiment remained firmly in pessimistic territory. In the broader EU, confidence was also broadly stable at –13.6, little changed from –13.5 in October. A slight improvement in consumers’ views of the overall economic situation was offset by a mild deterioration in assessments of past household finances. Meanwhile, expectations for future household finances and intentions to make major purchases showed little momentum, suggesting that consumers remain cautious despite signs of gradual stabilization.
Initial Jobless Claims edged down to 216,000 in the week of November 22, continuing claims rose to 1.96 million
11/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous softening of labor market as continuing claims continued to rise
U.S. initial jobless claims edged down to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, declining by 6,000 from the prior week, though the previous figure was revised slightly higher. The four-week moving average eased to 223,750, signaling modest stability. Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million for the week ending November 15, up 7,000, keeping the insured unemployment rate steady at 1.3%.
On an unadjusted basis, initial claims increased by 11.8% to 244,000, less than seasonal factors anticipated, while unadjusted continued claims rose more sharply, up 5.1% to 1.80 million. Total benefit claims across all programs fell slightly to 1.77 million. Federal civilian claims dropped notably, and no state triggered Extended Benefits. New Jersey, Washington, and D.C. posted the highest insured unemployment rates, while Michigan saw the steepest weekly drop in initial claims.
Overall, the data point to a labor market showing mild softening but still avoiding any sharp deterioration.
US home prices continue to fall month over month by 0.5% in September 2025, indicating a continuously weakening economy
11/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to home prices measured by Case-Shiller Home Price Index, indicating a weakening economy in 2025
U.S. home prices, measured by the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, fell 0.5% month-over-month in September 2025, marking the third straight monthly decline following a 0.6% drop in August. The continued slide highlights weakening housing demand amid elevated borrowing costs and softer economic conditions. Historically, Case-Shiller home prices have risen an average of 0.4% per month since 2000, with a record surge of 3.1% in March 2022 during the pandemic-driven boom and a historic low of -2.8% in January 2009 at the depth of the financial crisis.
Pending home sales in the United States fell 0.4% year-over-year in October 2025, marking a slight improvement from the 0.9% decline in September but still reflecting a soft housing market. Regional performance was mixed: sales decreased in both the Northeast and the West, while the Midwest and the South posted modest gains, suggesting that affordability pressures and market conditions continue to vary sharply across the country.
US PPI rose MoM but flat YoY, retail trade cooled to 4.3% from 5.0%, showing lose of momentum of house hold spending
11/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with price inflation showing slow down along with gradual decline of household spending
U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in September 2025, rebounding from the unexpected 0.1% decline in August and matching market expectations, according to the delayed BLS release. The increase was driven primarily by stronger goods inflation, with food prices jumping 1.1% due to higher meat costs, and energy prices surging 3.5% as natural gas liquids and ethanol rose sharply. As a result, goods prices recorded a 0.9% monthly gain, the fastest pace in over a year. In contrast, service prices were flat, holding steady after August’s 0.3% decline. On an annual basis, producer price inflation remained unchanged at 2.7%, indicating stable but firm pipeline inflation pressures.
Retail trade growth cooled to 4.3% year-over-year in September 2025, easing from 5.0% in August and signaling a moderation in consumer spending momentum. On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2%, falling short of the 0.4% rise expected by markets. Despite the slowdown, retail activity remains historically resilient, with long-term averages around 4.76% YoY. The latest reading comes against a backdrop of elevated prices, cautious consumer sentiment, and shifting seasonal spending patterns. Retail sales performance also reflects a normalization from the extreme highs and lows seen in recent years—including the record 51.8% surge in April 2021 and the pandemic-era -19.7% plunge in April 2020.
Core retail sales—excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gasoline stations, and a key input to GDP goods spending—fell 0.1% in September 2025, breaking a four-month streak of increases and surprising markets that expected a 0.3% gain. The decline signals a softening in underlying consumer demand after several months of resilience, raising concerns that household spending is beginning to lose momentum heading into the final quarter of the year.
Canada’s manufacturing sales are projected to decline 1.1% in October 2025, marking the largest monthly contraction since April
11/24/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to manufacturing sales decline in October 2025
Canada’s manufacturing sales are projected to decline 1.1% in October 2025, according to advance estimates, reversing the strong 3.3% gain recorded in September. The expected downturn is driven primarily by sharp pullbacks in the chemical and wood product subsectors, both of which saw substantial increases earlier in the year but appear to be softening amid weaker demand and price pressures. If the estimate is confirmed, October would register the largest monthly contraction since April, signaling renewed volatility in Canada’s industrial sector after several months of mixed momentum.
Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing activity deteriorated to -10.4, indicating 4th consecutive month of contraction
11/24/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous deteriorating manufacturing activities in Texas
Texas manufacturing activity deteriorated further in November 2025, with the Dallas Fed’s general business activity index falling to –10.4, its weakest level since June and marking a fourth consecutive month of contraction. Despite the worsening business sentiment, underlying production indicators strengthened notably: output, capacity utilization, new orders, and shipments all posted solid gains, suggesting that factory activity itself improved even as firms grew more cautious. Labor conditions were essentially flat, with hiring and layoffs nearly balanced, though hours worked increased. Price and wage pressures edged higher, reflecting rising input costs and modest compensation growth. While current sentiment weakened, six-month expectations remained positive, signaling that manufacturers still anticipate better conditions ahead despite near-term challenges.
US consumer sentiment stabilized by with continuing decreasing trend in University of Michigan Index
11/21/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuously deteriorating consumer sentiment according to University of Michigan Index
U.S. consumer sentiment stabilized slightly in November, with the University of Michigan index rising to 51.0 from a preliminary 50.3 after the federal shutdown ended, though the level remains the second-weakest on record. The modest improvement masked deep cracks in household perceptions: the Current Conditions Index plunged 12.8% to an all-time low of 51.1 as views on personal finances and durable-goods buying conditions deteriorated sharply. Expectations improved only marginally to 51.0, indicating lingering pessimism about the economic outlook. Sentiment among households with the largest stock holdings also weakened by month-end as equity markets declined. Inflation expectations eased slightly, with year-ahead expectations slipping to 4.5%—the third monthly drop—but still well above early-year levels, while long-term expectations moderated to 3.4%. Overall, the report reflects ongoing consumer strain from high prices and softening incomes despite temporary relief from the shutdown’s resolution.
UK retail sales volumes fell 1.1% month-on-month in October 2025
11/20/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to retail sales dropped as consumer sentiment slowly deteriorates
UK retail sales volumes fell 1.1% month-on-month in October 2025, the first decline since May and a sharp reversal from the upwardly revised 0.7% gain in September, defying expectations for a flat reading. The drop was driven mainly by weaker supermarket spending and lower clothing sales, as many consumers delayed purchases ahead of Black Friday promotions. Online and mail-order retailers also saw declines, particularly in online clothing, with several firms noting that customers were holding off for larger discounts. Despite the weak October print, sales volumes over the three months to October were still 1.1% higher than in the three months to July and 0.4% above the same period a year earlier. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose just 0.2%, the smallest increase since May and down from 1% in September, underscoring a softer underlying trend.
Initial Jobless Claims in US fell to 220,000 but continuous claims climbed to 1.974 million
11/20/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous claims rising, indicating difficulties to search for opening in the labor market.
Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 220,000 in the week ending November 15, down 8,000 from the prior week and still well below post–Q2 averages, even after the Labor Department resumed reporting following the shutdown-related disruption. However, the underlying picture is softer than the headline suggests: continuing claims climbed to 1.974 million as of November 8, the highest since 2021, pointing to slower hiring and longer unemployment spells rather than a surge in new layoffs. The impact of the federal government shutdown is evident, with initial claims from federal workers jumping to 5,719, up sharply from 635 in September.
Continuing jobless claims in the US rose to 1.974 million in the week ending November 8, 2025, the highest level since 2021 and a clear sign that hiring has slowed. At the same time, initial claims dipped by 8,000 to 220,000 in the week ending November 15, remaining well below their average since late Q2. Taken together, this pattern—elevated continuing claims but still-low new claims—points more to weaker hiring and slower exits from unemployment than to a surge in layoffs. The impact of the federal government shutdown is evident: outstanding unemployment claims for federal workers jumped to 38,867 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, roughly four times their pre-shutdown level.
Private-Sector payrolls rose by 42,000 in October 2025, first increase but with really small gain
11/18/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to small gain of private sector hiring indicating continuously softening labor market hiring in the US labor market
Private-sector payrolls rose by 42,000 in October 2025, the first increase since July but still a relatively soft gain. Hiring was driven by services (+33k) and to a lesser extent goods-producing (+9k), with strong additions in trade/transportation/utilities (+47k) and education/health services (+26k). Employers continued to cut jobs in information (-17k), professional/business services (-15k), leisure/hospitality (-6k), and manufacturing (-3k). Regionally, almost all of the net growth came from the West (+40k), while the Northeast lost 12k jobs. By firm size, large employers (+73k) more than offset losses at small (-10k) and medium-sized (-21k) firms, underscoring that the biggest companies are still hiring while smaller ones pull back. Wage growth was steady: pay for job-stayers rose 4.5% YoY, and 6.7% for job-changers, roughly unchanged over the past year and suggesting a labor market where supply and demand are coming into better balance rather than overheating.
Initial Jobless Claims in the US rose to 232,000 in the week ending October 18th
11/17/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to delayed initial jobless claims report released on Monday due to government shutdown
Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 232,000 in the week ending October 18, staying above the typical levels seen since late Q2. This was the first release from the Department of Labor since the federal government shutdown began on October 1, which had threatened the job security of many federal workers. With this latest data, continuing (outstanding) unemployment claims climbed to 1.957 million on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, hovering near their highest level since 2021 and reinforcing broader signs that hiring momentum in the US economy has weakened.
Continuing jobless claims in the US, a key measure of the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, rose to 1.957 million for the week ended October 18, 2025, the highest level since early August. That was up from 1.947 million in the previous week, based on figures available in the Department of Labor’s online database as of November 18. The Department of Labor has not released its usual weekly jobless claims report during the ongoing federal government shutdown, leaving these database updates as the primary source of information on the state of continuing claims.
The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims in the United States held steady at 58,000 in the week ending October 18, unchanged from the prior week. This level matches the record low first reached in September 2025 and stands in stark contrast to the long-term historical average of about 361,550 claims since 1967. For perspective, the four-week average hit an all-time high of 5.288 million in April 2020 during the height of the pandemic, underscoring how exceptionally low current claim levels remain by historical standards, even as other indicators point to some softening in the labor market.
Auto loan delinquency rates rose sharply in recent years with delinquency rate climbed to 5.02% in Q3 2025
11/15/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuously increasing auto loan delinquency rates with consumers’ credit dropped significantly in the financial system
U.S. auto-loan delinquency rates have risen sharply in recent years, signaling mounting consumer credit stress. Delinquencies of 90 days or more climbed to 5.02% in Q3 2025, up from 4.59% a year earlier and well above pre-pandemic levels, which the Fed estimates have increased by about 60 basis points. Broader analyses show that auto-loan delinquencies have risen more than 50% since 2010, with the steepest deterioration among sub-prime borrowers: Fitch reports that 6.65% of sub-prime borrowers were 60 + days delinquent in October 2025, a record high. Several forces are driving the trend, including surging vehicle prices, larger loan balances, high interest rates—especially on used-car loans—and record monthly payments that now exceed $600 on average. Stress is spreading beyond sub-prime segments, suggesting that auto loans have shifted from being a relatively stable credit category to one of the more vulnerable areas of household finance.
Liquidity drainage through reverse repo is close to complete as quantitative tightening lowered liquidity in the market significantly
11/15/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to possible lack of liquidity in the system and possible breakdown in credit crunch and liquidity dry up in the system
Over the past few years, usage of the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse-repurchase agreement (RRP) facility has exhibited a marked and sustained decline. Following a peak of around $2.6 trillion in late 2022, the balances held in the RRP plunged precipitously as the Fed and Treasury unwound unprecedented pandemic-era liquidity. By mid-2024 and into 2025, the facility’s usage had shrunk to tens of billions of dollars—rarely exceeding $50 billion—as excess cash in the financial system diminished and market participants increasingly parked funds directly in short-term Treasuries instead. This sharply lower reliance on the RRP suggests the Fed is transitioning into a new phase of quantitative tightening, where the primary mechanism of liquidity drainage shifts from reverse repos toward the gradual reduction of reserve balances and balance sheet contraction.
France’s unemployment rate in Q3 2025 inched up to 7.7% from 7.6% in Q2 2025, with continuing rising unemployment for half year
11/15/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Down due to continuous increase in unemployment for the past 6 months
France’s unemployment rate in Q3 2025 inched up to 7.7% from 7.6% in Q2, the highest since Q3 2021 but still well below its 2015 peak. The number of unemployed rose by 44,000 to 2.4 million, leaving the rate 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier. By age, joblessness dropped for youth 15–24 (to 18.8%) but rose for 25–49 (7.1%) and 50+ (5.1%). Male and female unemployment are now equal at 7.7%, after a 0.3-point rise for women. Despite the uptick, labor-market participation remains strong: the employment rate for ages 15–64 is 69.4%, near a record high, with full-time (57.6%) and part-time (11.8%) employment both stable. The activity rate is 75.2%, well above pre-pandemic levels, while long-term unemployment (1.8%) and underemployment (4.4%) were unchanged.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October 2025, down from 4.5% in September
11/13/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Australia Neutral with unemployment dropped in October compared to September, indicating a possible steadying labor market
Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October 2025, down from September’s four-year high of 4.5% and better than expectations of 4.4%, signaling a modest rebound in labor market conditions. The number of unemployed declined by 17,000 to 665,400, while employment rose sharply by 42,200 to a record 14.68 million, driven by a 55,300 increase in full-time jobs that offset a 13,100 decline in part-time positions. The participation rate remained steady at 67.0%, and the underemployment rate improved to 5.7% from 5.9%. Total monthly hours worked rose by 11 million to nearly 2 billion, highlighting continued labor market resilience. Overall, the data suggest that hiring momentum strengthened despite recent economic headwinds, with gains concentrated in full-time employment and steady labor force participation supporting aggregate work activity.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in United States declined to 98.2 in October 2025, lowest level in six months
11/11/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous decrease in NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States declined to 98.2 in October 2025 from 98.8 in September, marking the lowest level in six months and slightly below expectations. The drop reflects weakening sales and profitability amid persistent labor challenges. About 32% of small businesses continued to report unfilled job openings, while 27% cited labor quality as their most pressing concern — a sharp 9-point increase from the prior month. Business sentiment toward future conditions also softened, with the net share expecting better business conditions falling three points to -20%. Additionally, both actual and planned price hikes eased, suggesting moderating inflation pressures among small firms. Overall, the report signals that while small businesses remain active in hiring, they are increasingly constrained by labor shortages and softer demand heading into year-end.
US Private Sector showed significantly weakened job growth in October, further confirming a loss of labor market momentum
11/11/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to growing statistics showing significantly weakening labor market
The U.S. private sector showed renewed weakness in late October 2025. According to ADP Research, private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week during the four weeks ending October 25, signaling a loss of labor market momentum after modest stability earlier in the month. The slowdown coincides with the ongoing federal government shutdown, now in its second month, which has delayed the Labor Department’s official September jobs data and added uncertainty to hiring decisions. In a separate report, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 153,074 announced job cuts in October—the highest October total since 2003—underscoring growing corporate caution amid weakening demand, high costs, and persistent inflation pressures. Together, the reports highlight that the U.S. labor market is cooling, with employers turning defensive in the face of policy uncertainty and slowing economic momentum.
On 11/9/2025, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. indicated that total layoffs spiked to roughly 120,000–130,000, with the government shutdown in progress, currently unemployment rate is not announced to the public, we can see that both alternative sources such as ADP Research and Challenger are indicating a significantly weakening labor market.
UK unemployment rate rose to 5% in Q3 2025, highest level since mid-2021 and slightly above expectations of 4.9%
11/11/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to rise of unemployment rate and number of people holding second jobs, indicating softening labor market and economy
The UK unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in Q3 2025, its highest level since mid-2021 and slightly above expectations of 4.9%. The increase reflected a rise of 117,000 unemployed individuals, bringing the total to 1.789 million, mainly among those jobless for less than six months or more than a year. Meanwhile, total employment fell by 22,000 to 34.19 million, marking the first quarterly decline since early 2024, primarily due to fewer full-time positions. The employment rate slipped to 75.0%, while the economic activity rate remained stable at 79.0%. Additionally, the number of people holding second jobs rose modestly to 1.33 million, representing 3.9% of all workers. The figures point to a softening labor market, with employers cautious amid slowing growth, elevated costs, and persistent uncertainty over future economic conditions.
Japan’s leading economic index rose to 108.0 in September vs 107.0 in August, unemployment remained at 2.6%
11/10/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral with consumer confidence recovered but with unemployment rising as well, indicating the spending behaviors might come from wealth effect of the stock market
Japan’s leading economic index rose to 108.0 in September 2025 from 107.0 in August, marking the highest level since January and slightly exceeding market expectations of 107.9. The improvement signals a modestly brighter near-term outlook for the Japanese economy, driven by stronger household spending, which grew 1.8% for the fifth consecutive month, though at a slower pace than before. The data suggests that consumer activity continues to recover steadily, supported by rising confidence—October’s consumer sentiment index reached a ten-month high. However, underlying labor conditions remain mixed: the unemployment rate stayed at 2.6%, the highest since mid-2024, even as employment climbed to a four-month high. Overall, the latest figures point to gradual momentum in domestic demand amid lingering global trade uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures.
Layoffs for October surged to 120,000-130,000, higher than 2008 October Layoff amount
11/09/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to highest October layoffs since 2008
October 2025 saw the largest number of job-cut announcements for that month in over two decades, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Total layoffs spiked to roughly 120,000–130,000, far surpassing any October level since the early 2000s. The surge was led by the warehousing and technology sectors, reflecting widespread corporate restructuring and cost-cutting amid slowing demand and elevated financing costs. Historically, October layoffs tend to be moderate, but the 2025 jump aligns with signs of a cooling labor market and broader business caution. The data suggests that firms are tightening headcounts in anticipation of slower growth into late 2025, despite rate cuts and easing inflation pressures.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 in November 2025
11/07/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment dropped significantly again
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 in November 2025 from 53.6 in October, missing forecasts of 53.2 and marking the second-lowest reading on record, just above the June 2022 low. The decline reflected growing anxiety over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and its potential economic impact. The Current Economic Conditions Index plunged to a record low of 52.3, weighed by a 17% fall in personal finance assessments, while the Consumer Expectations Index fell to 49.0, the weakest in six months, amid deteriorating views of future business conditions. Sentiment weakened across most demographic and political groups, except for wealthier stock-owning households, which saw confidence rise 11% amid equity market gains. Inflation expectations were mixed, with the one-year outlook edging up to 4.7% and the five-year outlook easing to 3.6%, highlighting persistent price concerns but slightly improved long-term confidence.
Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October 2025 but mainly driven by part time hiring
11/07/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to employment shifted heavily towards part-time employment than full time, indicating that the job market remains hard to produce full time position
Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October 2025 from a four-year high of 7.1% in September, defying expectations of no change and signaling a modest rebound in the labor market. The economy added a net 66,600 jobs, lifting total employment to 21.02 million, while the number of unemployed individuals dropped by 49,200 to 1.56 million. Joblessness declined among core-aged men (to 6%) and held steady for core-aged women (5.7%), while youth unemployment fell by 0.6 points to 14.1%, marking its first improvement since February. Meanwhile, long-term unemployment accounted for 21.3% of the jobless population, similar to a year earlier. Overall, the data suggest that Canada’s labor market remains resilient despite recent weakness, helped by renewed hiring momentum and easing layoffs.
Full-time employment in Canada fell by 18,500 in October 2025, reversing part of the strong 106,100 gain in September, signaling a modest cooling in the labor market after a solid rebound. Despite the pullback, the trend remains relatively stable compared with historical averages, as full-time employment has averaged 14,650 jobs gained per month since 1976. The decline follows an extended period of labor market resilience amid slowing economic growth and elevated borrowing costs. Historically, full-time employment reached a record high increase of 569,400 in June 2020 during the post-lockdown recovery and a record low drop of 1.47 million in April 2020 at the height of the pandemic shock.
Part-time employment in Canada rose sharply by 85,100 in October 2025, marking the largest monthly gain since 2022 and rebounding strongly from the 45,600 decline in September. The surge suggests that employers may be shifting toward more flexible or temporary hiring amid lingering economic uncertainty and cost pressures. Over the long term, part-time employment in Canada has averaged 4,360 jobs gained per month since 1976. Historically, it reached an all-time high of 466,400 in June 2020 during the post-pandemic reopening and a record low of -586,600 in March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. The latest increase contrasts with the decline in full-time employment, indicating that job growth in October was driven primarily by part-time positions.
Bank of England (BoE) kept its Bank Rate at 4% in its November 2025 meeting
11/04/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to possible financial crisis with high bank rate and low liquidity in the market as the market is moving towards recession
The Bank of England (BoE) kept its Bank Rate at 4% in its November 2025 meeting with a 5–4 vote, as four members supported a 25 bps cut to 3.75%, signaling rising support for monetary easing. Policymakers noted that headline inflation has peaked and underlying disinflation is progressing, aided by softer wage growth and slowing services inflation. However, they acknowledged that economic activity remains subdued and labor market slack is increasing, contributing to further disinflationary pressure. The MPC now views inflation risks as more balanced, with reduced concern over persistence but growing downside risks from weak demand. Members emphasized that future rate cuts will depend on incoming data, and if disinflation continues as expected, the Bank Rate will likely decline gradually over coming months.
TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell sharply to 43.9 in November 2025, lowest level since June 2024
11/04/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to drop of TIPP Economic Optimism Index, indicating deepening pessimism about the US economy
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell sharply to 43.9 in November 2025, its lowest level since June 2024, signaling deepening pessimism about the U.S. economy. The decline of 9.1% from October’s 48.3 marked the third straight month below the neutral 50 threshold, placing the index 10.7% below its 24-year average. Confidence weakened across all components: the Six-Month Economic Outlook dropped to 40.0, the Personal Financial Outlook slipped to 50.6, and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies plunged to 41.1. Sentiment deteriorated notably among non-investors (down 10.4% to 38.0), while investor confidence also eased to 58.6, widening the optimism gap between the two groups. Meanwhile, the Financial-Related Stress Index rose to 65.2, its highest in months, reflecting persistent financial pressure on households. Analysts attribute the decline to stubborn inflation, high food costs, tariff uncertainty, and a cautious Fed policy stance, all of which continue to weigh heavily on consumer and investor sentiment.
Repo Agreement spiked significantly in last week of October, indicating amount of liquidity shortage in the system
11/03/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to sudden spike of repo agreement in last week of October, leading to concerns of possible liquidity shortage / imbalance in the banking system
The Federal Reserve’s overnight repurchase agreements (repo operations) showing a striking late-year 2025 surge in activity. For most of the period, repo volumes remained near zero, indicating minimal short-term liquidity injections by the Fed. However, beginning in October 2025, there was a sharp and sudden rise in repo activity, peaking at nearly $50 billion before easing to $22 billion as of November 3, 2025.
This spike likely reflects a temporary liquidity intervention aimed at alleviating short-term funding pressures in the banking system or volatility in the federal funds market. The move suggests the Fed sought to smooth market functioning without signaling a broader policy shift, especially amid declining reverse repo balances and ongoing rate cuts. The pattern underscores how the Fed continues to use temporary open market operations as a fine-tuning tool to stabilize short-term money market conditions when reserves tighten unexpectedly.
Reverse Repo Agreement reached yearly low with $80.3 billion in October 2025 only, peaked at $2.5 trillion at end of 2022
10/31/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous downsize of reverse repo agreement in October 2025, causing possible liquidity crisis to the financial system
The outstanding volume of overnight reverse repos (the “ON RRP” facility) was about US $80.3 billion in October 2025.
Historically, this volume had reached a peak of over US $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022.
The Facility is used by the Fed to manage reserve balances and help enforce the federal funds rate target by absorbing excess cash in the system.
Temporary open market operations are short-term monetary policy tools used by the Federal Reserve to manage liquidity in the banking system. They consist of repurchase (repo) and reverse repurchase (reverse repo or RRP) agreements. In a reverse repo, the New York Fed, under authorization from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), sells securities—such as U.S. Treasuries, federal agency debt, or mortgage-backed securities—to approved counterparties with an agreement to repurchase them later at a set price and date. This temporarily drains reserves from the financial system, helping the Fed influence short-term interest rates and maintain control over the federal funds rate.
Due to shortage of liquidity in the system, it is possible that the financial market will face a liquidity crisis especially for regional banks and private credit firms.
Dallas Fed’s general business activity index at -5.0 in September, signaling continued contraction but a slower pace
10/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous business activity index remained at contraction territory
Texas manufacturing activity showed slight improvement but remained subdued in October 2025, as the Dallas Fed’s general business activity index rose to -5.0 from -9.0 in September, signaling continued contraction but at a slower pace. The production index held steady at 5.2, indicating modest output growth for the second month, while new orders (-1.7) and capacity utilization (-1.1) pointed to weak demand and softer factory use. Employment conditions improved slightly, with the employment index rising to 2.0, reflecting small net hiring as 18% of firms added workers and 16% cut jobs, though hours worked declined (-5.5). Price and wage pressures eased, with raw materials (33.4) and finished goods (7.7) price indexes both falling, and the wages and benefits index dropping to 14.2, its lowest in months. Business outlooks remained cautious, with the outlook uncertainty index jumping to 22.2 and six-month expectations moderating—future production fell to 21.0, and general activity to 7.0, reflecting tempered optimism amid persistent economic uncertainty.
U.S consumer sentiment weakened notably in October 2025, as University of Michigan index was revised down to 53.6
10/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to revised down consumer sentiment by University of Michigan index
U.S. consumer sentiment weakened notably in October 2025, as the University of Michigan index was revised down to 53.6 from a preliminary 55.0 and 55.1 in September, marking the lowest level in five months. The decline reflected broad-based weakness, with the current conditions index falling to 58.6 (from 61.0) and the expectations gauge easing to 50.3 (from 51.2), suggesting growing consumer caution. Short-term inflation expectations edged slightly lower to 4.6% (from 4.7%), while the five-year outlook unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, its highest since early 2024, indicating lingering long-term price concerns. According to Joanne Hsu, Director of the Surveys of Consumers, personal finances showed mild improvement, but expectations for future finances softened, as persistent inflation and high prices remain key worries. Consumers largely viewed economic conditions as unchanged from September, with little concern about the government shutdown’s direct impact on the broader economy.
US inflation ticked slightly higher in September 2025, annual CPI rising to 3.0% from 2.9% in August
10/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to persistent annual CPI rising to 3.0% in August
U.S. inflation ticked slightly higher in September 2025, with the annual CPI rising to 3.0% from 2.9% in August, the highest rate since January but still below expectations of 3.1%. The increase was largely driven by energy prices, which climbed 2.8% year-over-year—their fastest pace since May 2024—due to rebounds in fuel oil (+4.1%) and gasoline (-0.5% vs -6.6%), while natural gas inflation moderated. New vehicle prices also rose marginally faster (+0.8%), but price growth slowed for food (+3.1%), used cars and trucks (+5.1%), and transportation services (+2.5%). Shelter inflation remained steady at 3.6%, continuing to exert upward pressure on overall prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 3.0% from 3.1%, suggesting that underlying price pressures are gradually cooling. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased 0.3%, driven mainly by gasoline, while the core index rose a softer 0.2%, pointing to a modest but persistent inflation backdrop as the Federal Reserve monitors progress toward its 2% target.
Japan’s coincident economic index (CEI) fell to 112.8, lowest since 2024, showing signs of slowing momentum in the economy
10/26/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down due to fall in coincident economic index to 112.8, indicating losing speed in the economy
Japan’s coincident economic index (CEI) fell to 112.8 in August 2025 from 114.1 in July, marking its lowest level since February 2024 and underscoring signs of slowing momentum in the economy. The decline — deeper than the preliminary 113.4 — reflected the drag from persistently high inflation, particularly rising rice and food prices, alongside the negative spillover of U.S. trade policy on exports and factory output. Despite ongoing moderate recovery in employment and consumer activity, industrial production and exports stagnated, and consumer sentiment weakened amid mounting cost pressures. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark short-term rate at 0.5%, the highest since 2008, while raising its core inflation forecast for FY2025 to 2.7% (from 2.2%), signaling growing concern over sustained price pressures even as output momentum softens.
Mexico’s annual core inflation rate remained at 4.24% in the first half of October 2025, unchanged from 4.26% in mid-September
10/23/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico Neutral with inflation rate remained sticky and likely to slow down the rate cut progress from the Central Bank of Mexico
Mexico’s annual core inflation rate stood at 4.24% in the first half of October 2025, nearly unchanged from 4.26% in mid-September, signaling persistent underlying price pressures despite broader disinflation in headline inflation. The figure remains above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target, suggesting that services and processed food costs continue to exert upward pressure on prices. Historically, Mexico’s core inflation averaged 9.18% from 1989 to 2025, with a peak of 50.73% in January 1996 during the peso crisis and a record low of 2.23% in April 2015 amid a period of monetary stability. The latest reading underscores that while inflation has eased considerably from pandemic-era highs, core components remain sticky, potentially delaying the central bank’s timeline for deeper rate cuts.
The CPI in Mexico increased 0.28% month-over-month in October 2025, the most since December last year, compared to 0.18% in the first half of September and forecasts of 0.36%. Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM in Mexico averaged 0.45 percent from 1988 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 5.05 percent in February of 1988 and a record low of -0.75 percent in May of 2011.
United Kingdom’s business confidence fell to -31 points in Q4 2025, down continuously from -27 points in Q3
10/22/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to consecutively deteriorating business confidence and ongoing economic uncertainty
Business confidence in the United Kingdom fell to -31 points in Q4 2025, down from -27 points in Q3, signaling a further deterioration in corporate sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The reading remains well below the historical average of -4.7 points, underscoring persistent pessimism among UK firms. The decline reflects continued concerns over sluggish domestic demand, elevated financing costs, and trade frictions following recent policy and tariff developments. Despite gradual disinflation and modest GDP growth, businesses remain cautious about investment and hiring decisions heading into 2026. For historical context, UK business confidence reached an all-time high of 55 points in Q3 1959, while the record low of -87 points occurred during the pandemic-induced recession in Q2 2020.
United Kingdom’s Annual inflation rate held steady at 3.8%
10/22/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to lowering economic activities and higher unemployment and higher inflation
The United Kingdom’s annual inflation rate held steady at 3.8% in September 2025, matching July and August readings but coming in slightly below market expectations of 4%. The stability in headline inflation masked divergent trends across categories: transportation prices surged 3.8% (vs. 2.4% in August), led by higher motor fuel and air fare costs, while restaurants and hotels (3.9% vs. 3.8%) and clothing and footwear (0.5% vs. 0.2%) also saw modest accelerations. Offsetting these gains, recreation and culture inflation slowed to 2.7% from 3.2%, driven by lower prices for live events, and food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation eased to 4.5% from 5.1%, marking the first moderation since March amid stronger retail discounting. Housing and utilities inflation edged slightly lower to 7.3% from 7.4%, and services inflation remained unchanged at 4.7%, indicating persistent domestic price pressures. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, while core inflation eased marginally to 3.5%, suggesting underlying price momentum is gradually cooling but remains above the Bank of England’s comfort zone.
Canada’s annual inflation rate increased to 2.4% in September 2025 compared to 1.9% in August 2025
10/21/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down Due to slowing down economic activities and continued inflation in price within the country
Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.4% in September 2025 from 1.9% in August, surpassing expectations of 2.3% and reaching its highest level since February, marking the first time in six months that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The increase was largely driven by base-year effects in energy, as the sharp fall in fuel prices last year distorted comparisons — gasoline deflation eased to -4.1% from -12.7%, while transportation costs rose 1.5% year-on-year after a 0.5% drop in August. Food inflation quickened to 3.8%, led by stronger grocery prices (+4%) amid rebounds in vegetables (+1.9%) and sugar and confectionery (+9.2%). Price pressures also intensified for household operations (+2.4%) and recreation, education, and reading (+1.6%). Meanwhile, mean core inflation held at 3.2%, matching a one-year high and exceeding forecasts, underscoring persistent underlying inflationary pressures that could complicate the Bank of Canada’s path toward sustained price stability.
Zions Bancorp disclosed $50 million charge-off tied to two commercial and industrial loans with fraudulent misrepresentations
10/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to Regional Banking Crisis that is looming to become Banking Crisis in Regional Banks
Zions Bancorp recently sent shockwaves through the regional banking sector by disclosing a $50 million charge-off tied to two commercial and industrial loans with apparent fraudulent misrepresentations, driving shares down ~13%. The write-off, associated with its California Bank & Trust unit, has raised serious concerns about the bank’s underwriting standards and credit oversight, particularly in a high-rate environment where loan defaults and hidden stress are under scrutiny. While some analysts consider this an isolated incident, the timing amid broader sectoral stress and fallout from recent defaults in private credit markets has fueled investor unease that there could be more “credit cockroaches” awaiting discovery.
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September 2025
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Australia Down Due rising unemployment rate in September 2025
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September 2025, the highest since November 2021 and above market expectations of 4.3%, signaling a cooling labor market. The number of unemployed increased by 33,900 to 684,000, as both part-time (+23,500) and full-time job seekers (+10,400) rose. Despite this, total employment grew modestly by 14,900 to 14.64 million, missing forecasts of a 17,000 gain, following an upwardly revised decline of 11,800 in August. Full-time employment advanced by 8,700, while part-time employment rose by 6,300. The participation rate climbed to 67.0%, exceeding expectations, indicating more people entered the labor force. However, the underemployment rate increased to 5.9% from 5.7%, suggesting that job quality and hours remain under pressure even as headline employment continues to edge higher.
Japan’s industrial production fell 1.5% month over month in August 2025 and 1.6% year over year
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down Due to the consecutive monthly decline and contraction of industrial production
Japan’s industrial production fell 1.5% month-over-month in August 2025, marking its second consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest contraction since November 2024. The drop was steeper than the preliminary 1.2% estimate and July’s 1.2% fall, underscoring persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector. The decline was driven by significant drops in electrical machinery (-4.9%), fabricated metals (-16.5%), and chemical production (-5.4%), amid subdued export demand, especially to the U.S., and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. On a year-over-year basis, output fell 1.6%, accelerating from a 0.4% decrease in July, signaling that Japan’s industrial sector remains under pressure from soft global demand and high input costs.
On a year over year basis, industrial production declined 1.6% year-on-year in August 2025, deepening from a 0.4% fall in July and marking the second straight annual contraction. The steeper decline highlights the ongoing struggles of Japan’s manufacturing sector amid weak global demand and trade uncertainty. Historically, industrial production in Japan has averaged 4.43% from 1954 to 2025, with a record high of +30% in February 1960 during its postwar boom and a record low of -37.2% in February 2009 during the global financial crisis. The current downturn, while far less severe, reflects a broader slowdown across key industries such as autos, steel, and electronics, which continue to face export headwinds and production disruptions.
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index reached 10.7 in October 2025, marking third positive reading in four months
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 19.4 points to 10.7 in October 2025, well above expectations of -1.0, signaling a return to modest expansion in New York’s manufacturing sector. It was the third positive reading in four months, reflecting improving business conditions after recent softness. New orders rose sharply to 3.7 from -19.6, and shipments rebounded to 14.4 from -17.3, indicating stronger demand and output. Employment improved to 6.2 from -1.2, suggesting renewed hiring momentum, though the average workweek continued to shorten slightly. Input costs and selling prices both increased at a faster pace, hinting at some ongoing cost pressures. While delivery times lengthened modestly and supply availability worsened slightly, overall optimism improved markedly, with nearly half of surveyed firms expecting better business conditions in the months ahead, pointing to a cautiously positive outlook for New York’s manufacturing activity.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) -0.3% year over year in September 2025, deeper than expectation -0.1%
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China Down Due to the ninth consecutive month of deflationary pressure, indicating strong sign of recession
China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, a steeper decline than market expectations of -0.1% but slightly milder than August’s -0.4%, marking the ninth consecutive month of deflationary pressure. The drop was driven mainly by food prices, which fell 4.4%, the sharpest since January 2024, amid broad declines across categories and a deeper fall in pork prices due to abundant supply, lower production costs, and weak demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays. In contrast, non-food prices rose 0.7%, supported by government-backed consumer trade-in programs that stimulated demand for items such as clothing, healthcare, and education. Transport costs declined at a slower rate (-2.0% vs -2.4%), while core inflation—excluding food and energy—rose 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, signaling modest underlying demand improvement. On a monthly basis, CPI edged up 0.1%, missing forecasts of 0.2%, suggesting that while deflationary pressures persist, policy support is beginning to stabilize non-food consumption.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.8 in September 2025, marking first decrease in a quarter
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to anticipating headwinds in the small business environment due to inflationary pressures and sales expectations
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.8 in September 2025, falling 2 points from August's 100.8 and below the forecasted 100.5, marking the first decrease after three consecutive months of growth. Small business owners face mounting challenges with 64% reporting supply chain disruptions and 14% citing inflation as their single most important problem. Despite these concerns, one positive indicator emerged as actual earnings changes reached their highest level since December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that while most owners currently view their businesses as healthy, they're navigating multiple headwinds including inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and labor market challenges, all while remaining resilient amid uncertainty about how policy changes will impact their operations—a sentiment shift that could have broader economic implications if these challenges persist.
United Kingdom’s employed people increased by 91,000 in three months to August 2025, smallest employment growth in four months
10/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down Due to lowered employment people since 4 months ago
The number of employed people in the United Kingdom increased by 91,000 in the three months to August 2025, following a strong 232,000 gain in the prior period, marking the smallest employment growth in four months. Job creation was supported by part-time positions and employment among those aged 65 and over, but this was partly offset by declines among workers aged 16 to 64. On an annual basis, employment rose by 473,000, with gains across both full-time and part-time categories, including employees and self-employed individuals. However, the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 slipped by 0.2 percentage points to 75.1%, signaling a mild cooling in labor demand. The number of people holding second jobs edged lower during the quarter but remained higher year-on-year at 1.323 million, representing 3.86% of total employment. Overall, the data suggest that while the UK labor market remains resilient, job growth momentum has slowed, particularly among core working-age groups.
United Kingdom’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August 2025 from 4.7%
10/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down Due to higher unemployment rate in August 2025, highest since 2021
The United Kingdom’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to August 2025, exceeding expectations of 4.7% and marking the highest level since mid-2021. The increase was driven by more people unemployed for less than 6 months and over 12 months, while those unemployed for 6–12 months remained largely unchanged. Compared with a year earlier, unemployment increased across all duration groups, signaling a broad-based softening in the labor market. Despite this, total employment rose by 91,000 to 34.2 million, led mainly by part-time jobs and older workers aged 65 and above. The number of people with second jobs declined slightly during the quarter but was up annually to 1.323 million (3.86% of total employment). Meanwhile, the economic inactivity rate was stable at 21.0%, just 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous period, suggesting only marginal changes in overall labor force participation.
Tricolor Holdings, a Texas-based subprime auto lender and dealership network, filed for bankruptcy
10/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to subprime loans and delinquency rates continue to rise in the United States Economy
Tricolor Holdings, a Texas-based subprime auto lender and dealership network, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in September 2025, marking one of the largest collapses in the U.S. auto financing sector in years. The company, which operated over 60 dealerships and managed roughly 70,000 active loans, is under federal investigation for extensive fraud, including allegations that it double-pledged thousands of vehicle loans across multiple credit lines. The court-appointed trustee described the case as a “fraud of extraordinary proportion.” Major banks such as Fifth Third, JPMorgan Chase, and Barclays face hundreds of millions of dollars in potential losses tied to Tricolor’s warehouse financing. The bankruptcy has disrupted payments for thousands of borrowers and raised broader concerns over risk management and transparency in subprime auto lending and securitization markets, prompting calls for tighter oversight and stronger due-diligence controls across the industry.
Canada’s unemployment rate maintained in elevated level of 7.1%, highest since August 2021
10/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down Due to high and elevated unemployment rate at 7.1% indicating slowing labor market and economic recession coming
Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September 2025, slightly below expectations of 7.2% but still the highest since August 2021, signaling continued labor market softness despite a rebound in hiring. The number of unemployed people rose modestly by 11,900 (+0.7%) to 1.61 million, while total employment increased by 60,400 (+0.3%) to 21.02 million, far exceeding forecasts for a small gain and recovering part of the 106,000-job decline seen over the prior two months. Job growth was driven entirely by full-time positions, which surged 106,100 (+0.6%), while part-time employment fell 45,600 (-1.2%). The employment rate rose slightly to 60.6%, and the labor force participation rate also edged up to 65.2%, both posting their first increases in three months. Overall, the data suggest a labor market showing tentative signs of stabilization, with robust full-time hiring offsetting prior losses, even as the unemployment rate remains elevated.
Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17 minutes agreed to forecast another 50 basis point cut in 2025
10/07/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to expectation of future pessimistic economic outlook in the US market within near future
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16–17, 2025, resulted in a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25%, as officials cited rising downside risks to employment and moderating economic growth. Policymakers noted that job gains had slowed, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, and payroll revisions revealed weaker labor conditions than previously reported. Inflation remained somewhat elevated, with headline PCE at 2.7% and core PCE at 2.9%, partly reflecting tariff effects, though some participants saw productivity gains offsetting price pressures. GDP growth had weakened in the first half of the year, while housing remained soft and business investment moderate. Most members viewed the policy adjustment as necessary to balance risks between elevated inflation and a softening labor market, with several anticipating further easing later in 2025 if conditions warranted. One member, Governor Stephen Miran, dissented in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut, citing more pronounced labor market weakness. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to maximum employment and 2% inflation, signaling a shift toward a more neutral stance while continuing balance-sheet runoff and closely monitoring financial and economic developments.
RealClearMarkets Economic Optimism Index for the US dropped to 48.3 in October 2025
10/07/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to expectation of decrease in economic optimism index, indicating continuous consumer pessimissm
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for the US dropped to 48.3 in October 2025, its lowest level since May and below expectations of 49.3, highlighting continued consumer pessimism. This was the second consecutive month below the neutral 50 mark, indicating a lack of confidence in the economy’s trajectory. The decline was driven by a 5.9% drop in the Six-Month Economic Outlook to 42.8, reflecting weaker expectations for near-term economic conditions, and a further slide in Confidence in Federal Economic Policies to 46.4 from 47.3, reversing a short-lived period above 50 that had briefly ended a nearly four-year streak of pessimism. In contrast, the Personal Financial Outlook improved, rising 4.1% to 55.6, suggesting that while Americans have become more wary of the broader economy and government policies, they remain somewhat more optimistic about their own household finances.
Mexico’s consumer confidence slipped to 46.5 in September 2025, down 0.2 points from August
10/06/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico neutral with consumer confidence slipped slightly but maintaining neutral and slightly cautious outlook
Mexico’s consumer confidence index slipped to 46.5 in September 2025, down 0.2 points from August, reflecting a slightly more cautious outlook among households. Sentiment weakened toward both the current (-0.2 to 41.3) and future (-0.5 to 48.1) economic situation of the country, as well as in households’ ability to make major purchases (-0.8 to 32.4). Meanwhile, the indicator for the expected household economic situation held steady at 58.6, and perceptions of the current household situation improved slightly (+0.2 to 52.0). Compared with a year earlier, overall consumer confidence was down 0.5 points, highlighting a modest but persistent decline in sentiment.
Gold price is in all time high as USD currency continues to be weakened with expectations of Rate Cuts and Quantitative Easing
10/06/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to expectation of recession, money printing and distrust of USD as an universal currency, causing instability of the US and World Financial System
Gold and the U.S. dollar (USD) generally have an inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, gold prices often decline because it becomes more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, while a weaker dollar typically boosts gold. This dynamic is driven largely by interest-rate policy and real yields—rising U.S. rates and higher real yields support the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, whereas rate cuts or falling real yields tend to lift gold. Inflation also plays a key role, as gold is viewed as a hedge when inflation expectations rise faster than interest rates. Geopolitical tensions, banking stresses, and other risk-off events can temporarily see both gold and the dollar gain as safe-haven assets. Over time, however, shifts in U.S. monetary policy and real yields remain the primary forces shaping their inverse trend.
ADP US Private Employers Cut 32,000 jobs, showing a slowing labor market momentum
10/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to cut of private jobs and slowing in hiring by private companies in US
In September 2025, U.S. private employers cut 32,000 jobs, highlighting slowing labor market momentum despite strong Q2 economic growth. The decline was amplified by ADP’s annual rebenchmarking, which reduced September figures by 43,000 jobs. Losses were concentrated among small and mid-sized businesses, while large firms with over 500 employees added 33,000 jobs. By sector, education and health services (+33,000) and information (+3,000) posted gains, but these were outweighed by declines in leisure and hospitality (–19,000), professional and business services (–13,000), trade, transportation, and utilities (–7,000), financial activities (–9,000), and construction (–5,000). The report underscores a cautious hiring environment, with only pockets of resilience in healthcare and large enterprises.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index improved but remained at contraction territory
10/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to ISM Manufacturing Employment Index remained in contraction territory
The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index in the US rose to 45.3 in September 2025, up from 43.8 in August, but remained below the neutral 50-point threshold, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing employment. The reading underscores ongoing softness in the labor market for the sector despite a modest improvement from the previous month.
Historically, the index has averaged 50.09 points since 1950, reflecting a balanced trend between expansion and contraction. It peaked at 73.7 in February 1951 during the post-war boom and hit a record low of 27.8 in May 1982 amid a severe recession. The current reading highlights that while the pace of job losses slowed in September, the manufacturing labor market remains under pressure.
Japan’s unemployment rate climbed to 2.6% in August 2025, up from 2.3% in July 2025
10/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down Due to increase in unemployment in August 2025 and showing increase of unemployment and decrease in hiring
Japan’s unemployment rate climbed to 2.6% in August 2025, up from 2.3% in July and above expectations of 2.4%, marking the highest level since July 2024. The rise reflected a combination of higher unemployment and reduced employment: the number of unemployed rose by 150,000 to 1.79 million (a 13-month high), while employment declined by 210,000 to 68.10 million (a four-month low).
The labor force shrank slightly by 40,000 to 69.89 million, but the number of people outside the labor force fell by 20,000 to 39.70 million. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the labor force participation rate increased to 64.0%, up from 63.6% a year earlier, indicating more people are entering the workforce despite the softening job market.
Meanwhile, the jobs-to-applicants ratio eased to 1.20, its lowest level since January 2022, signaling reduced labor demand amid signs of cooling economic momentum.
US home price cooled to 1.8% year on year in July 2025
10/02/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with home price continuous to cool due to high interest rate environment and weakening labor market
US home price growth cooled further to 1.8% year-on-year in July 2025, the slowest pace since July 2023, down from 2.2% in June but slightly above forecasts of 1.6%. The data signal that housing market momentum has slowed sharply, according to S&P’s Nicholas Godec.
Regional dynamics:
Northeast & Midwest outperform: New York (+6.4%), Chicago (+6.2%), Cleveland (+4.5%), and Boston & Detroit (~+4%) continued to see relatively strong gains as these markets had lagged during the pandemic boom.
Sun Belt & West Coast weaken: Tampa (-2.8% yoy) posted the sharpest drop among the 20 cities, while Phoenix (-0.9% yoy) also slipped into negative territory.
The divergence highlights a shift in housing strength from pandemic-era hot spots in the South and West to more affordable Northeastern and Midwestern metros, as higher mortgage rates and stretched affordability weigh on demand in formerly overheated regions.
US job openings rose slightly by 19,000 to 7.23 million in August 2025 compared to July 2025
10/02/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with job openings remained largely unchanged that broadly matches expectations
US job openings rose slightly by 19,000 to 7.23 million in August 2025 (from 7.21 million in July, revised up), broadly matching expectations. The increase was led by leisure & hospitality (+97K), health care & social assistance (+81K), and retail trade (+55K), while openings declined in construction (-115K) and the federal government (-61K). Regionally, vacancies expanded in the South (+86K) and Midwest (+44K) but fell in the Northeast (-66K) and West (-46K).
Labor turnover remained largely steady: hires and separations both at 5.1 million, with quits holding at 3.1 million and layoffs/discharges at 1.7 million, indicating a still-resilient but slightly cooling labor market.
Dallas Fed’s general business activity index fell sharply to -8.7 in September from -1.7 in August
10/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to continuous contraction and reading of slowing down production with negative orders
The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index fell sharply to –8.7 in September from –1.7 in August, signaling a second straight month of contraction and the weakest reading since June. Production slowed notably, with the production index dropping to 5.2 (–10 pts), while capacity utilization eased to 3.9 and shipments slipped to 6.7. New orders turned negative at –2.6, reflecting softening demand after August’s uptick. Labor market indicators weakened, as the employment index plunged to –3.4, its lowest since April, indicating slight job losses, though work hours ticked up modestly. Price and wage pressures remained steady, with raw-materials costs still high at 43.4. Business sentiment stayed fragile, as the company-outlook index hovered near zero and the outlook-uncertainty index edged slightly below average at 13.9, reflecting continued caution among manufacturers.
Japan’s Retail Sales Fell by 1.1% year on Year in August 2025
10/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down Due to sudden drop of Retail Sales in August 2025
Japan’s retail sales fell by 1.1% year-on-year in August 2025, reversing a 0.4% rise in July and missing forecasts for a 1% gain, marking the first annual drop since February 2022 and the steepest since August 2021. Persistent weak wage growth and elevated cost pressures, coupled with unseasonal weather, weighed on consumer demand. Sales slumped in automobiles (-7.9%), non-store retailers (-7.3%), fuel (-7.2%), department stores (-4.0%), and food and beverages (-0.2%), while gains were seen in other retail categories (+6.0%), machinery and equipment (+5.4%), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (+2.5%), and textiles and personal goods (+0.8%). On a monthly basis, retail sales also declined by 1.1% in August, following a 1.6% drop in July, highlighting ongoing pressure on consumer spending.
Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 95.5 in September 2025
10/01/2025 10:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Eurozone neutral due to improving sentiment in consumer and construction but weakened in industry, services and retail trade
The Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 95.5 in September 2025 from a revised 95.3 in August, slightly above market expectations of 95.2, signaling a modest improvement in sentiment. Gains were supported by stronger consumer confidence (-14.9 vs -15.5) and a slight rise in construction confidence (-3.5 vs -3.6). However, sentiment weakened in industry (-10.3 vs -10.2), services (3.6 vs 3.8), and retail trade (-7.7 vs -6.4), showing continued pressures across business sectors. Among major economies, sentiment improved in Spain (+3.0 to 104.7), Italy (+0.7 to 99), and France (+0.3 to 93), while it slipped in Germany (-0.4 to 89.3) and the Netherlands (-0.7 to 99.9), highlighting a mixed regional outlook with resilience in southern Europe offsetting softness in core economies.
Japan’s leading economic indicator rises to 106.1, highest since March 2025
10/01/2025 10:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral due to firm labor market despite soft payroll statistics in recent quarter
Japan’s leading economic index rose to 106.1 in July 2025, the highest since March, reflecting a brighter short-term outlook. The improvement was driven by a stronger labor market, as the unemployment rate fell to 2.3%, its lowest since December 2019, and by continued growth in household spending, which increased 1.4% in July, marking a third straight monthly rise. However, the positive momentum was partly offset by softening consumer confidence, which eased from June’s four-month high.
