Buffet Indicator (US market cap to GDP Ratio) is very elevated, 200% in recent quarters
09/25/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to high risk of market revaluation and recession
The latest readings suggest the Buffett Indicator (US market-cap to GDP ratio) is very elevated — typically above 200% in recent quarters.
MacroMicro data lists the ratio at 216.6% as of September 25, 2025.
The site BuffettIndicator.net reports 218.6% using its latest market cap and GDP inputs.
CurrentMarketValuation’s model also categorizes the market as “Strongly Overvalued” based on the Buffett Indicator.
In short: the Buffett Indicator is flashing a strong overvaluation signal — the stock market’s aggregate value is more than double Canada’s (or any country's) annual economic output, which historically has been considered a warning zone for expectations and future returns.
US consumer sentiment weakened further in September 2025, with UMich Index revised down to 55.1 from 58.2 in August
09/25/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous decline of US consumer sentiment
US consumer sentiment weakened further in September 2025, with the University of Michigan index revised down to 55.1 from 58.2 in August, its lowest level since May and the second straight monthly decline. The expectations gauge slipped to 51.7 and current conditions fell to 60.4, signaling broader pessimism. Inflation expectations eased slightly, with the year-ahead view at 4.7% (from 4.8%) and the five-year outlook at 3.7% (from 3.9%). Sentiment deteriorated across most age, income, and education groups, as well as across all five index components, except for steadier views among wealthier stockholders and a modest improvement among Democrats. Key concerns focused on persistent price pressures, a softer labor market, and weaker personal financial outlooks, with 44% of respondents citing high prices as a primary challenge.
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 and lowest 4-week average easing to 237,500, showing firm labor market
09/25/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral due to firm labor market despite soft payroll statistics in recent quarter
US unemployment insurance claims showed further labor-market resilience in mid-September 2025. Initial claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest in two months and below expectations, while the 4-week average eased to 237,500. Continuing claims also edged down to 1.93 million, keeping the insured unemployment rate steady at 1.3%. On an unadjusted basis, claims declined 7.6% to 180,611 and insured unemployment dropped 1.8% to 1.73 million. Total continued weeks of benefits fell to 1.79 million, below the prior week and slightly above last year’s level. Federal civilian and veteran claims ticked up modestly. Among states, New Jersey had the highest insured unemployment rate (2.4%), while Texas and Connecticut saw the largest weekly decreases in new claims. Overall, the report indicates a still-firm labor market despite recent soft payroll readings.
US economy grew annualized 3.8% in Q2 2025, rebounded from Q1’s negative growth, mainly due to consumer spending
09/25/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral due to GDP growth mainly drove by consumer spending that can lead to further debt issue
The US economy grew at an annualized 3.8% in Q2 2025, the fastest pace since Q3 2023 and stronger than the prior estimate of 3.3%, mainly due to a substantial upward revision in consumer spending. Personal consumption expenditures rose 2.5% (vs 1.6%), led by stronger services spending (+2.6% vs 1.2%), while goods consumption stayed solid (+2.2%). Fixed investment was also revised higher (+4.4%), with gains in equipment (+8.5%) and intellectual property (+15%), though structures remained a drag (-7.5%). Residential investment fell further (-5.1%). Government spending edged slightly lower (-0.1%), less than previously estimated. Offsetting these positives, net trade weighed more heavily, with exports slipping -1.8% and imports plunging 29.3%, and the inventory drawdown worsened, subtracting -3.44 percentage points from GDP. Overall, the data underscore strong underlying demand, particularly in consumer services and business investment, even as trade and inventory dynamics dampened the headline figure.
UK Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.2 in September 2025, down from 47 in August, below expectation
09/24/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to continuing contraction of Manufacturing activities, keeping the economy within the contraction territory
The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.2 in September 2025, down from 47.0 in August and below expectations of 47.1, marking the sharpest downturn since April. Output contracted at its fastest pace since March, weighed by weak domestic and overseas demand, with the automotive sector hit particularly hard by Jaguar Land Rover plant stoppages. Employment in the sector continued to fall, and factory gate price inflation eased to its lowest since December 2024, as firms faced strong competitive pressures. Despite the downturn, business confidence improved to its highest level since February, underpinned by stronger investment and optimism for a recovery in new orders.
Canada’s PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month in August 2025, eased from July’s 0.7% gain and below forecasts of 0.9%
09/24/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada neutral due to improved PPI easing and below forecasts
Canada’s industrial producer prices (IPPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month in August 2025, easing from July’s 0.7% gain and below forecasts of 0.9%. The increase was driven by chemicals, food products, vehicles, and metals, though a decline in energy and petroleum moderated the overall rise. Excluding energy, prices advanced a stronger 0.7%.
Food prices continued to climb, with meat, fish, and dairy up 1.9%, marking a ninth straight monthly increase, led by beef (+5.2%) and chicken (+2.1%) amid tight supply and strong seasonal demand. Primary non-ferrous metals gained 1.0%, supported by gold (+1.6%) and silver (+1.9%), though platinum group metals reversed (-3.7%). On the energy side, prices fell 1.3%, dragged down by diesel (-6.0%), while gasoline rose (+1.8%) in line with the summer driving season.
Overall, the data point to broad-based industrial price pressures outside of energy, highlighting the persistent strength in food and metals, even as energy costs provide some relief.
Germany’s PPI continue to fall 2.2% year on year in August 2025, indicating further deflationary pressures from producer costs
09/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to continuous fall of producer prices, showing continuous deflationary pressure of the European giant
Germany’s producer prices fell 2.2% year-on-year in August 2025, deeper than July’s 1.5% decline and sharper than expectations for a 1.7% drop, marking the sixth straight annual decline and the steepest since May 2024. The fall was driven mainly by an 8.5% drop in energy costs, with notable decreases in natural gas (-11.0%), electricity (-10.8%), heating oil (-7.5%), mineral oil products (-7.3%), and motor fuel (-2.5%). Prices for intermediate goods also slipped (-1.0%). On the other hand, non-durable consumer goods (+3.3%), durable consumer goods (+1.7%), and capital goods (+1.8%) continued to rise, showing resilience in consumer and investment-oriented segments.
Excluding energy, producer prices were up 0.8% y/y, slightly slower than July’s 1.0% growth. On a monthly basis, the index fell 0.5%, after a 0.1% decline in July, marking the steepest monthly contraction in four months and underscoring ongoing deflationary pressures from energy costs despite underlying price firmness in other categories.
Canada’s retail sales excluding vehicles dropped 1.2% month over month in July 2025
09/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to further retail sales in July 2025
Canada’s retail sales excluding vehicles dropped 1.2% month-over-month in July 2025, sharply reversing June’s revised 2.2% gain and coming in weaker than expectations of a 0.7% decline. The pullback points to renewed softness in consumer spending after a strong rebound the prior month. Historically, Canadian retail sales ex-autos have averaged 0.36% growth since 1991, with extreme swings during the pandemic — a record surge of 14.4% in June 2020 following reopening, and a record drop of -18.8% in April 2020 during lockdowns. The July decline underscores fragility in consumer demand, especially under the weight of tariffs, inflationary pressures, and slowing economic momentum.
Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5% in September 2025
09/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to high inflation and high interest rates to control economic growth
The Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5% in September 2025, the highest since 2008, in line with expectations. The decision, approved by a 7–2 vote, reflects caution over political uncertainty and the impact of U.S. tariffs, even as the Federal Reserve has begun to ease policy. In a further move toward normalization, the BoJ announced it will begin selling ETF holdings (≈JPY 330 billion annually) and REIT holdings (≈JPY 5 billion annually), marking a significant step in unwinding its asset purchases.
Policymakers assessed that the economy is recovering moderately, with private consumption supported by stronger employment and income, though confidence has weakened. Exports and industrial output remain soft, reflecting external headwinds. Inflation has held between 2.5% and 3.0%, led by food price pressures—particularly rice—while inflation expectations have edged higher and core CPI is expected to rise gradually. The overall stance underscores a slow but steady shift away from ultra-loose policy, with careful balancing of domestic recovery and global risks.
UK labor market update shows signs of softening conditions with pay-rolled employees fell by 142,000
09/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to further decrease of payrolled employees with the fall to 142,000
The latest UK labour market update shows signs of softening conditions. Payrolled employees fell by 142,000 year-on-year in July 2025 and by a further 127,000 in August (provisional), bringing the total to 30.3 million. Over May–July, payrolled employees were down 125,000 compared with a year earlier, reflecting continued weakness in hiring. At the same time, the employment rate rose to 75.2%, while unemployment increased to 4.7% and the inactivity rate fell to 21.1%, suggesting more people are entering the workforce but struggling to find jobs.
Labour demand remains muted: the vacancy count slipped to 728,000 in June–August, the 38th consecutive quarterly decline, with drops in half of industry sectors. Workforce jobs stood at 36.8 million in June, down on the quarter but slightly higher year-on-year. Public sector employment rose to 6.17 million, up both quarterly and annually.
On pay, average earnings grew 4.8% excluding bonuses and 4.7% including them in May–July, with stronger growth in the public sector. In real terms, wages rose modestly—0.7% for regular pay and 0.5% for total pay when adjusted for CPIH. Strikes also weighed on activity, with 83,000 working days lost in July, mostly in health and social work.
Overall, the data point to a labour market gradually cooling, with rising unemployment and falling vacancies offset by modest real wage growth and stronger public sector hiring.
Initial Jobless Claims dropped sharply to 231,000 , down 33,000 from the prior week’s revised 264,000
09/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuing claims held steady near 1.92 million with an insured unemployment rate of 1.3%
In the week ending September 13, 2025, initial jobless claims dropped sharply to 231,000, down 33,000 from the prior week’s revised 264,000. The 4-week moving average eased slightly to 240,000, while continuing claims held steady near 1.92 million with an insured unemployment rate of 1.3%. On an unadjusted basis, claims also fell, bucking seasonal expectations for an increase. Regionally, Texas saw the largest weekly increase, while New York posted the biggest decline. Overall, the data points to a still-resilient labor market despite recent volatility.
Australia shows significant decline of full time employment since February
09/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Australia Down due to sharp decline of employment in the economy, signaling decreasing labor market resilience
In August 2025, full-time employment in Australia fell sharply by 40.9K jobs, bringing the total down to 10.1 million. This was the largest monthly decline since February and followed an upwardly revised 63.6K gain in July, highlighting renewed volatility in the labour market.
The drop suggests that after a strong bounce in July, firms may be scaling back full-time positions amid economic uncertainty and weakening demand pressures. The data underscores fragility in Australia’s employment recovery, with shifts in full-time work often seen as a signal of underlying strength or weakness in labour market fundamentals.
Federal Reserve dot plot shows another 50bps easing by year-end
09/17/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to plan of further easing from the Federal Reserve, showing further weakness of US economy
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range in its first move since December 2024. The decision was largely expected, though Governor Stephen Miran dissented, preferring a 50bps cut. The Fed’s new projections show another 50bps of easing by year-end and an additional 25bps cut in 2026, a slightly more dovish path than in June.
On the outlook, GDP growth was revised higher to 1.6% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 1.9% for 2027. PCE inflation is projected at 3% in 2025, unchanged from June, but revised up to 2.6% in 2026; core PCE remains at 3.1% for 2025, but also rises to 2.6% in 2026. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is still expected at 4.5% for 2025, but lowered to 4.4% for 2026.
The Fed resumed rate cuts cautiously, balancing slower inflation progress with better growth prospects and a stable labor market, signaling a measured, data-driven easing cycle into 2026.
Federal Reserve cut federal funds rate by 25 bps in September 2025 to range 4.0% - 4.25%
09/17/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to possible incoming of recession due to continuous employment market correction and weakness. Tariff keeping inflation high and elevating long duration yields.
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025 to a range of 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction since December 2024, with one dissent favoring a larger move. Policymakers signaled a gradual easing path, projecting another 50bps of cuts by year-end and a further 25bps cut in 2026, slightly more dovish than June’s outlook. Growth forecasts were revised higher, with GDP expected at 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, while inflation projections edged up, with PCE seen at 3% this year and 2.6% in 2026, and core PCE at 3.1% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The unemployment rate forecast held steady at 4.5% for 2025 but was nudged lower to 4.4% for 2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market. Overall, the Fed balanced higher growth expectations with sticky inflation, opting for a cautious, data-driven easing approach.
Canada’s Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, indicating possible recession coming
09/17/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to possible recession coming and unemployment rising
The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, restarting its easing cycle after three consecutive holds. The move came in response to:
A 1.6% GDP contraction in Q2 2025, driven by a steep 27% fall in exports due to U.S. tariffs.
Signs of labour market softening, with two straight job losses lifting unemployment and cooling wage growth.
CPI inflation at 1.9% in August, remaining below the BoC’s 2% midpoint target, giving space to focus on growth risks.
Consumption and housing remained resilient, but the BoC expects tariffs and slower population growth to gradually weigh on private spending and jobs.
US retail sales rose 0.6% in August 2025, exceeding expectations
09/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral due to rise of retail matching expectations and improved economic conditions
US retail sales rose 0.6% in August 2025, matching July’s pace and exceeding expectations.
Gains were led by online retailers, clothing, sporting goods, restaurants, gasoline, and motor vehicles, while miscellaneous retailers, furniture, general merchandise, and health & personal care saw declines. Core retail sales, which feed into GDP, climbed 0.7%, pointing to solid consumer spending momentum.
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% from 1.7%, slightly below the expected 2%
09/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to continuous lowered inflation below the 2% target, indicating further weakness of the economy
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in August from 1.7% in July, slightly below the expected 2% and staying under the Bank of Canada’s 2% midpoint for the fifth straight month. The smaller decline in gasoline prices (-12.7% vs -16.1%) was the main factor behind the uptick, while food inflation edged higher to 3.4%, led by a sharp jump in meat prices. Shelter costs, which account for nearly a third of the CPI basket, grew 2.6%, easing from 3% as mortgage and rent pressures moderated. On a monthly basis, prices slipped 0.1% after rising in July. Core measures showed further cooling, with CPI excluding gasoline at 2.4% and the trimmed-mean core CPI easing to 3.0% from 3.1%.
In short, inflation edged up mainly due to energy, but underlying pressures continue to soften, keeping price growth broadly manageable for the Bank of Canada.
April–June 2025: Inflation gradually eased from 2.2% → 2.0%, still near the BoC’s midpoint target.
July 2025: Dropped sharply to 1.7%, the lowest since early 2021.
August 2025: Rebounded slightly to 1.9%, though still below the 2% target midpoint.
Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment improved but current conditions index deteroriated
09/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany neutral due to improved economic sentiment but deteriorated current conditions index
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment improved to 37.3 in September 2025, up from 34.7 in August and well above expectations of 26.3, showing that financial experts have become more optimistic about Germany’s outlook. The recovery in sentiment is tied to improving prospects for export-oriented sectors such as automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and metals, which had previously been under heavy pressure.
At the same time, the current conditions index deteriorated further, dropping to -76.4 from -68.6, worse than forecasts. This underscores that while experts are more hopeful about the future, they still see the present economic situation as very weak.
According to ZEW President Achim Wambach, optimism is tempered by considerable risks, including uncertainty around US tariff policy and Germany’s upcoming “autumn of reforms”.
In short, confidence in the future is rising, but the present remains difficult—sentiment points to cautious optimism, while the reality on the ground reflects ongoing economic strain.
UK’s unemployment rate increased from 4.6% to 4.7% quarterly and up 0.4% yearly, offset by decrease in economic inactivity
09/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK neutral due to rise of unemployment rate but with decrease of economic inactivity
ONS Employment in the UK: September 2025 release covering the period May to July 2025:
Employment rate (16–64): 75.2%, up 0.1% from Feb–Apr 2025, and 0.5% higher than a year earlier.
Employment level: 34.24 million, up 232,000 on the quarter and 654,000 on the year.
Unemployment rate (16+): 4.7%, up 0.1% on the quarter and 0.4% on the year.
Unemployment level: 1.67 million, an increase of 34,000 on the quarter and 194,000 on the year.
Economic inactivity rate (16–64): 21.1%, down 0.2% on the quarter and 0.8% on the year.
Economic inactivity level: 9.12 million, down 63,000 on the quarter and 287,000 on the year.
Total weekly hours worked: 1,088 million, up 5.7m on the quarter and 17.3m on the year.
Redundancy rate: 3.5 per 1,000 employees, slightly higher than both the prior quarter (+0.1) and the year earlier (+0.6).
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index slumped to -8.7 in September 2025
09/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to New York Empire State Manufacturing Index slumped to -8.7 in September 2025
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index slumped to -8.7 in September 2025, down sharply from 11.9 in August and well below forecasts of 5, marking the lowest reading in three months. The drop reflected steep declines in new orders (-19.6 vs 15.4) and shipments (-17.3 vs 12.2), while delivery times stabilized and unfilled orders weakened further. Inventories continued to edge lower, employment held steady, and the average workweek contracted modestly. On the inflation front, input costs remained elevated despite easing from August, while selling price growth was moderate. Looking ahead, the New York Fed noted that optimism remains muted, with firms expecting flat employment levels over the next six months, underscoring persistent caution in the state’s manufacturing sector.
Germany in recession with wholesale prices continue to fall by 0.6% Month over Month in August 2025
09/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany Down due to acceleration of drop in wholesale prices to 0.6% from 0.1% decline in July
Germany’s wholesale prices fell 0.6% month-over-month in August 2025, a sharp acceleration from the 0.1% decline in July and the steepest drop in a year. The downturn highlights renewed disinflationary pressure at the wholesale level, reversing much of the price stability seen earlier in the summer. Historically, wholesale prices in Germany have averaged +0.18% per month since 1968, peaking at +5.6% in March 2022 during the post-pandemic energy shock and plunging to a record -3.4% in November 2008 amid the global financial crisis. The latest data suggest softer pricing momentum, consistent with easing cost pressures across supply chains, though still subject to volatility from energy and global demand trends.
UK industrial and manufacturing production slumped month over month in July 2025
09/13/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to continuous slump of manufacturing and industrial production, indicating continuously weakened economy
UK industrial production fell 0.9% month-over-month in July 2025, sharply missing expectations for no change and reversing June’s 0.7% gain. The decline was led by a 1.3% drop in manufacturing output, with steep contractions in computer, electronic and optical products, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals. Mining and quarrying output also weakened further (-2.0%), while growth in electricity and gas supply slowed notably. In contrast, water supply, sewerage, and waste management activity picked up, rising 0.8%. On an annual basis, industrial production was nearly flat, up just 0.1% compared with 0.2% in June, falling well short of forecasts for a 1.1% increase. The data highlight renewed fragility in the UK’s industrial sector, with weakness concentrated in high-value manufacturing industries.
Manufacturing production slumped 1.3% month-over-month in July 2025, the steepest drop in a year, sharply missing expectations for no change and reversing June’s 0.5% rise. Output fell across 9 of 13 subsectors, with the heaviest drags from computer, electronic and optical products (-7%), basic pharmaceuticals (-4.5%), and chemicals (-4.6%), all swinging lower after gains in the prior month. Offsetting strength came from electrical equipment (+3.3%) and textiles, apparel, and leather goods (+1.2%). On an annual basis, manufacturing edged up 0.2%, improving slightly from flat growth in June, but the data overall highlight renewed weakness in key high-value industries, signaling mounting pressure on the sector.
UK economy flatlined in July 2025 after a 0.4% expansion in June, Year over year growth below expectations
09/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to continuous drop of yearly growth, showing continuous weakness of industrial output
The UK economy flatlined in July 2025, matching expectations, after a 0.4% expansion in June. Services eked out a 0.1% gain, supported by transportation and storage and by health and social work, but growth was capped by a notable decline in information and communication. Construction also rose modestly, helped by housing repair and new housing projects. However, a 0.9% fall in production weighed heavily, with manufacturing down 1.3% as steep drops in electronics and pharmaceuticals offset gains in electrical equipment. Mining, quarrying, and utilities also contracted, though water supply increased. Over the three months to July, GDP grew 0.2%, with services and construction growth partly offset by a sharp production decline. Year-over-year growth held at 1.4%, slightly below expectations, underscoring an economy that is showing resilience but remains constrained by weak industrial output.
US Consumer Sentiment Weakened in September 2025 with University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 55.4
09/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous fall of consumer sentiment to 55.4 from 58.2 in August and was 70.1 a year earlier, with a 21% annual drop
US consumer sentiment weakened in early September 2025, with the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment falling to 55.4 from 58.2 in August and well below 70.1 a year earlier, marking a 21% annual drop. The decline was driven by a sharp fall in expectations (51.8 vs. 55.9 in August), while current conditions held relatively steadier at 61.2. Lower- and middle-income households reported the largest pullback in confidence, reflecting concerns about business conditions, labor markets, and inflation. Buying conditions for durable goods improved slightly, but both current and expected personal finances dropped around 8%.
Tariffs remain a dominant theme, with nearly 60% of consumers mentioning trade policy unprompted during interviews, underscoring persistent anxiety about costs and competitiveness. Inflation expectations were mixed: year-ahead expectations held at 4.8%, while long-run expectations edged up to 3.9%, the second consecutive monthly increase but still below the 4.4% peak in April. Overall, sentiment remains stronger than in April–May, immediately after the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but continues to show clear strain from trade and policy uncertainty.
US Jobless Claims surged in the week ending September 6th 2025, with initial claims up 27,00 to 263,000
09/11/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to US Jobless Claims increased and weakening job market
US jobless claims surged in the week ending September 6, 2025, with initial claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, signaling fresh signs of labor market cooling. The prior week’s figure was revised slightly lower to 236,000. The 4-week moving average climbed to 240,500, up 9,750, pointing to a clear upward trend.
Continuing claims held steady at 1.94 million, keeping the insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.3%, while the 4-week moving average eased marginally to 1.946 million. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims rose to 204,600, well above seasonal expectations and higher than the 178,700 seen a year earlier. Unadjusted continuing claims declined to 1.81 million, though they remained elevated compared to 2024.
Regionally, the highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.5%), and Massachusetts (2.2%), while the largest weekly increases in claims came from Tennessee, Connecticut, New York, Illinois, and California. Meanwhile, Kentucky and Pennsylvania recorded the steepest declines.
Overall, the data indicate a noticeable softening in labor market conditions, with rising layoffs and weaker demand for workers, though continuing claims suggest those unemployed are still finding work at a relatively steady pace.
US Inflation increase and rising to 2.9% in annual CPI, the highest since January
09/11/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rise in CPI, highest since January, causing lowering possibility to rate cut
US inflation picked up in August 2025, with the annual CPI rising to 2.9%, the highest since January, after holding at 2.7% in June and July, broadly in line with expectations. The acceleration was driven by faster price increases in food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles, while energy costs rose for the first time in seven months, with smaller declines in gasoline and fuel oil and still-elevated natural gas prices. Shelter inflation eased slightly year-over-year but continued to exert pressure, rising 0.4% on the month and contributing most to the overall CPI’s 0.4% monthly gain, the largest since January. Core inflation held steady at 3.1% year-over-year, matching February’s peak, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, in line with July’s pace and forecasts. The data suggest headline inflation is firming again, while underlying price pressures remain sticky, reinforcing the challenge for policymakers in balancing growth risks with persistent core inflation.
European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged in September 2025 at 2%, indicating fear of further slow down
09/11/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe Down due to unchanged rates indicating possible further disinflationary and recession in 2026
The European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged in September 2025, holding the deposit facility at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with expectations. New staff projections show inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, before easing to 1.7% in 2026 and edging up to 1.9% in 2027, while core inflation is seen moderating from 2.4% in 2025 to below 2% in the following years. Growth forecasts were revised higher for 2025 (1.2% vs 0.9% previously) but point to a slowdown in 2026 (1.0%) before a mild recovery in 2027 (1.3%). The Governing Council reiterated its commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, stressing its focus on anchoring inflation at the 2% target. President Christine Lagarde highlighted that growth risks are now more balanced and declared that the disinflationary process has ended, signaling a shift toward stability rather than further easing.
US Bureau of Labor Statistic’s preliminary benchmark revision to the Current Employment Statistics (CES) by -911,000
09/09/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rising largest employment revision in 26 years with 911,000 jobs
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision to the Current Employment Statistics (CES) shows that total nonfarm employment in March 2025 was overstated by 911,000 jobs, or -0.6%, compared to the more comprehensive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). This is a notably larger miss than the typical annual benchmark revision over the past decade, which has averaged just 0.2%.
The discrepancy stems mainly from response and nonresponse errors: businesses reported higher employment to CES than to QCEW, and companies that failed to respond to CES surveys generally reported lower employment to QCEW than respondents. Other sources of error, such as those related to the CES birth-death model, have not yet been quantified.
Importantly, this revision is preliminary and applies only to March 2025 data by major industry sectors. Individual industries may show larger percentage adjustments than the aggregated nonfarm figure because of greater sampling error at the detailed level. Official CES estimates will not be updated now—the final benchmark revision will be incorporated in February 2026 with the release of the January 2026 Employment Situation report.
US Unemployment Rate inched up to 4.3% in August 2025 from 4.2% in July, marking the highest level since October 2021
09/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rising unemployment rate to 4.3%, moving towards highest level since October 2021
The US unemployment rate inched up to 4.3% in August 2025 from 4.2% in July, in line with expectations and marking the highest level since October 2021. The number of unemployed rose by 148,000 to 7.38 million, while the labor force expanded by 436,000 to 170.8 million, lifting the participation rate to 62.3% after hitting a two-year low the prior month. Broader labor underutilization also worsened, with the U-6 unemployment rate climbing to 8.1% from 7.9%, reflecting an increase in discouraged workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons. The data highlight a labor market that is cooling gradually, with joblessness rising even as participation shows a modest rebound.
US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August 2025, well short from expectations for 75,000
09/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to nonfarm payrolls added are well short from expectations, along with June and July payrolls downward revised by 21,000, showing weakening labor market
US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August 2025, falling well short of expectations for 75,000 and marking a sharp slowdown from July’s upwardly revised 79,000, highlighting further cooling in the labor market. Gains in health care (+31K) and social assistance (+16K) were outweighed by job losses in the federal government (-15K) tied to White House spending cuts, as well as in mining and energy (-6K), wholesale trade (-12K), and manufacturing (-12K). Employment was little changed across most other major industries, including construction, retail, transportation, finance, and leisure and hospitality. Revisions also lowered combined June and July payrolls by 21,000, reinforcing the weaker trend. Overall, the data point to waning labor momentum as both cyclical headwinds and policy factors weigh on hiring.
Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%, highest level of unemployment in 4 years, surpassing market expectations
09/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to rising unemployment rate surpassing market expectations and reaching 4 year high
Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 7.1% in August 2025, its highest in four years, surpassing both market expectations of 7% and July’s 6.9%, underscoring a deteriorating labor market. The number of unemployed rose to 1.595 million, while net employment fell by 66,000, extending the prior month’s 41,000 decline, with the participation rate edging down to 65.1%. Weak hiring conditions were especially acute for youth, with unemployment at 14.5%, reflecting sluggish seasonal job creation. The data reinforce the Bank of Canada’s warning that a swelling labor supply, tariff impacts, and policy uncertainty from the US pose mounting risks to Canada’s labor market and overall economic outlook.
US Jobless claims ticked higher to 237,000 in the week ending August 30, while 4-week moving average edged to 231,000
09/04/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rising initial jobless claims and rising 4-week average edged to 231,000
US jobless claims ticked higher in the latest week but remained historically low, signaling ongoing labor market resilience despite some softening. Initial claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000 in the week ending August 30, while the four-week moving average edged up to 231,000. Continuing claims stood at 1.94 million, down 4,000 from the prior week, keeping the insured unemployment rate steady at 1.3%. On an unadjusted basis, claims increased to nearly 197,000, higher than seasonal expectations and above the 190,600 seen a year earlier, though the unadjusted insured jobless rate eased to 1.2%. Regional data showed the highest insured unemployment rates in New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico, with New York and Texas posting the largest weekly increases in claims, while Iowa and Virginia recorded notable declines. Overall, the data reflect a labor market that is cooling gradually but remains tight by historical standards.
US factory orders fell 1.3% in July 2025 to $603.6 billion, extending June’s steep 4.8% drop
09/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous drop of factory orders in July 2025
US factory orders fell 1.3% in July 2025 to $603.6 billion, extending June’s steep 4.8% drop and broadly matching expectations of a 1.4% decline. The weakness was driven by a 9.5% fall in transportation equipment, particularly a 32.7% plunge in nondefense aircraft and parts as foreign buyers scaled back after front-loading purchases earlier in the year to avoid tariffs. Excluding transportation, orders showed resilience, with gains in machinery, primary metals, and computers and electronic products, signaling that underlying industrial demand remains relatively steady despite the tariff-driven drag on headline figures.
US construction spending slipped 0.1% in July 2025 to an annualized $2.14 trillion, extending its decline for 9th straight month
09/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to US construction spending dropped continuously for 9 months
US construction spending slipped 0.1% in July 2025 to an annualized $2.14 trillion, extending its decline for a ninth straight month and matching forecasts. The weakness was led by the private sector, where spending fell 0.2% as nonresidential activity dropped 0.5%, particularly in amusement and recreation projects, while residential building edged up 0.1% with gains in single-family homes offset by a decline in multi-family units. In contrast, public construction rose 0.3%, supported by residential projects and nonresidential growth in conservation, development, and power infrastructure. Despite these pockets of strength, overall construction spending was down 2.8% from a year earlier, underscoring persistent softness in the sector.
ISM US Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 48.7 in August 2025 from 48.0 in July
09/02/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to Manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction zone for the sixth straight month
The ISM US Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 48.7 in August 2025 from 48.0 in July, though it remained below the 50 mark for a sixth straight month, signaling continued contraction and falling short of market expectations of 49.0. The improvement was driven by a rebound in new orders, which returned to expansion territory, but this was offset by a sharp decline in production and ongoing weakness in employment. Customers’ inventories and order backlogs shrank more quickly, underscoring fragile demand conditions, while input cost pressures eased marginally but stayed elevated. Survey respondents pointed overwhelmingly to tariffs as a drag, citing higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and reduced competitiveness, reinforcing the view that the sector remains under strain despite some signs of stabilization.
Canada’s economy contracted 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reversing the 0.5% growth from Q1 and show weakness
08/29/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to GDP contraction Quarter over Quarter in Q2 2025
Canada’s economy contracted 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reversing the 0.5% growth from Q1 and signaling renewed weakness. On an annualized basis, GDP fell 1.6%, a sharper downturn than the expected 0.6% contraction. The decline was driven mainly by a 7.5% plunge in exports and weaker business investment in machinery and equipment, reflecting soft external demand and cautious corporate spending. Imports also fell (-1.3%), partly offsetting the drag from trade.
Some support came from the domestic side: household spending grew 1.1% (a marked improvement from just 0.1% in Q1), while government expenditures rose 1.8%, showing resilience in consumption and fiscal support. In addition, businesses built up non-farm inventories at a faster pace, adding $30.1 billion to GDP. However, this boost is less a sign of healthy demand and more of an inventory-driven technical contribution.
Overall, the Q2 contraction underscores an economy facing external headwinds and soft investment, with growth relying more on consumption and government spending than broad-based strength.
US weekly jobless claims rose to 228,500 with 4-week moving average climbed to 226,250 and continuing claims totaled 2 million
08/28/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to spike of initial jobless claims and continuing claims continued to climb
The U.S. jobless claims 4-week average rose to 228,500 in the week ending August 23, 2025, up from 226,000 the prior week, signaling a slight uptick in underlying labor market softening. Despite the increase, claims remain well below the historical average of 361,910 since 1967, reflecting continued resilience in employment conditions. For perspective, the series reached an all-time high of 5.29 million in April 2020 during the pandemic shock and a record low of 179,000 in May 1969. The current level, while edging higher, is still consistent with a relatively tight labor market compared to long-term norms.
US Economy expanded at an annualized 3.3% in Q2 2025, marking a strong rebound from 0.5% contraction in Q1 2025
08/28/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral due to rise in 3.3% in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025
The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 3.3% in Q2 2025, marking a strong rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1 and a slight upward revision from the initial 3% estimate. The improvement came mainly from stronger investment (5.7% vs 1.9% in the first estimate) and firmer consumer spending (1.6% vs 1.4%), though these gains were partly offset by weaker government spending (-0.2% vs 0.4%) and a smaller drop in imports than first reported. Growth was underpinned by a sharp decline in imports (-29.8% vs +37.9% in Q1), which mechanically boosts GDP, and by a pickup in consumer spending (1.6% vs 0.5% in Q1). However, this was tempered by slower investment growth (5.7% vs 10.3% in Q1) and a contraction in exports (-1.3% vs +0.4%). Overall, the data suggest that the economy regained solid momentum in Q2, though much of the boost reflects the swing in trade dynamics rather than a broad-based surge in domestic demand.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price slowed down to 2.1% from 2.8% gain in May
08/28/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with S&P CoreLogic slowing down slightly on the House Price Index and hold up the price
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index increased 2.1% year-over-year in June 2025, slowing from a 2.8% gain in May and marking the weakest rise since July 2023, in line with expectations. The moderation reflects the drag from elevated mortgage rates and a relatively ample supply of homes, which has kept buyer competition muted. Price growth remained strongest in New York City (+7.0%), Chicago (+6.1%), Cleveland (+4.5%), and Detroit (+4.3%), while notable declines were seen in Tampa (-2.4%) and San Francisco (-2.0%). On a monthly basis, prices were essentially flat, underscoring the cooling momentum in the U.S. housing market.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey showed mild contraction of -1.9 in overall business conditions
08/23/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with modest pull back in manufacturing and contraction in overall business conditions
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August 2025 painted a picture of mild contraction in overall business conditions but resilience in underlying activity. The headline general business activity index slipped to -1.8 from 0.9 in July, suggesting a modest pullback. However, production (15.3) and capacity utilization (13.7) remained solidly above historical averages, pointing to continued strength in output even as momentum eased.
Key demand indicators showed encouraging signs: the new orders index turned positive (5.8) for the first time since January, and shipments surged to 14.2, their highest level in more than three years. Employment conditions were stable, with the index holding at 8.8—roughly one in five firms reported net hiring, compared to 11% citing layoffs.
Looking ahead, sentiment was mixed. The company outlook index stayed slightly positive (3.3), but the uncertainty index climbed to 18.3, reflecting elevated caution. Still, expectations for six-month-ahead activity improved, showing that firms anticipate stronger conditions later in the year.
On the inflation front, cost pressures remained intense: the raw materials prices index rose to 43.7, well above its long-term average (27.4), while finished goods prices increased to 15.1, hinting that some cost pass-through is occurring.
Japan’s leading economic index revised down from 106.1 flash report, with consumer sentiment rose
08/23/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan neutral with leading economic index revised down but with consumer sentiment rose to offset the weaker economic growth estimate
Japan’s leading economic index was revised down to 105.6 in June 2025 from the flash estimate of 106.1, but it still improved from 104.8 in May, reaching its strongest level since March. The advance reflects a more optimistic short-term outlook, underpinned by robust household spending, which grew at its fastest pace since August 2022, supported by government stimulus to lift domestic demand. At the same time, consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high, reinforcing expectations for steadier consumption, even as the unemployment rate stayed at 2.5% with total employment edging lower.
Together with the coincident index (116.7 in June, the highest since February), the leading index suggests that Japan’s economy is currently experiencing a moderate recovery while maintaining some forward momentum. The divergence between stronger consumption and weaker employment gains, however, highlights ongoing structural pressures in the labor market that could weigh on the outlook if not offset by policy support.
Japan’s coincident economic index rose to 116.7 in June 2025, but with risks from external shocks remain
08/23/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan neutral as economic index improved but risk of economy growth, trade tariff remains
Japan’s coincident economic index rose to 116.7 in June 2025, marking the strongest level since February and reflecting a moderate recovery momentum. The improvement, while slightly below the flash estimate, was supported by gains in factory output, employment, and retail sales, with private consumption firming thanks to stronger income and labor conditions. However, lingering cost pressures—especially from surging rice prices—remained a headwind, prompting the government to maintain relief measures, including higher rice imports from the U.S., Thailand, and China.
At the policy level, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged in June, underscoring its cautious stance as it balances signs of domestic resilience with global trade headwinds linked to U.S. tariff policies. Overall, the data highlights Japan’s ability to sustain modest growth, though risks from external shocks and persistent food inflation continue to cloud the outlook.
The U.S. Leading Economic Index slipped 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7, marking 2.7% decline over the past 6 months
08/22/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to continuous decline over the past 6 months and Leading Economic Indicator is signaling recession
The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) from the Conference Board slipped 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7, following a 0.3% drop in June, marking a 2.7% decline over the past six months, steeper than the 1% fall seen in the previous half-year. The weakness reflects soft consumer and business expectations and sluggish new manufacturing orders, partly offset by stock market gains and improvements in unemployment claims. Despite the LEI’s six-month decline once again triggering the board’s technical “recession signal,” the Conference Board does not forecast a recession, instead projecting U.S. GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator for the U.S. stood at 100.43 in June 2025, up 0.09% from May and 0.75% higher year-over-year, pointing to a modest improvement in international sentiment.
Overall, the data highlight a U.S. economy losing momentum and flashing warnings to recession.
France’s manufacturing climate remained fragile in August 2025, holding at 96, unchanged from July’s 6-month low
08/22/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Down due to continuously fragile manufacturing climate
France’s manufacturing climate remained fragile in August 2025, holding at 96, unchanged from July’s six-month low and still below the long-term average of 100, signaling continued weakness in the sector. Business leaders’ views on personal production prospects (-5) and general production expectations (-12) stayed pessimistic, while order books remained subdued (-21). However, finished goods inventories fell sharply (10 vs 16), slipping back below average, which may hint at some normalization in stock levels.
Labor dynamics stayed mixed: workforce size balances were weak (-2), but reported workforce shortages rose (12 vs 9), suggesting tight labor supply despite subdued demand. On the supply side, only 21% of firms cited constraints, the lowest since 2017 outside the pandemic period, indicating easing bottlenecks. External conditions improved slightly with foreign demand edging up (-17 vs -18), while selling price expectations eased markedly (2 vs 5), the lowest since September 2024, reflecting reduced cost-push pressures. Economic uncertainty also declined (27 vs 31), offering some relief.
By industry, the picture was uneven: food and beverages sentiment plunged (92), machinery and electronics weakened, transport equipment improved, and other manufacturing remained steady. Overall, the sector shows persistent weakness with tentative signs of stabilization from easing constraints, softer inflation pressures, and reduced uncertainty.
Mexico’s economy grew by 0.6% quarter in Q2 2025, above its historical average pace
08/22/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico up due to growing economy with Quarter over Quarter in Q2 2025
Mexico’s economy grew 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, slightly above its historical average pace of 0.52% since 1993. This performance highlights steady but moderate momentum, with growth aligning closely to long-term trends. For perspective, Mexico experienced its most dramatic swings during the pandemic: an all-time high of 15.5% in Q3 2020 as activity rebounded from shutdowns, and a record contraction of -18.9% in Q2 2020 during the peak of restrictions. The latest figure suggests the economy has returned to a more stable trajectory, though still modest by historical standards.
US weekly jobless claims rose to 235,000 with 4-week moving average climbed to 226,250 and continuing claims totaled 2 million
08/21/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to spike of initial jobless claims and rising continuous claims over 2 million
US weekly jobless claims rose in the week ending August 16, 2025, with initial claims increasing by 11,000 to 235,000, while the four-week moving average climbed to 226,250. Insured unemployment reached 1.97 million for the week ending August 9, up 30,000 and the highest since November 2021, though the insured jobless rate held steady at 1.3%. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims fell modestly by 4,470 to 194,920, less than seasonal expectations, while continuing claims across all programs totaled just over 2.0 million, slightly lower than the prior week but above last year’s level.
Regionally, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and Rhode Island posted the highest insured unemployment rates, while California and New York recorded the largest increases in new claims.
Canada PPI rose 2.6% YoY, marking the 10th straight annual increase
08/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to rise of producer price inflation along with consumer experiencing disinflation, indicating a weakened job market and weak price
Canada’s industrial producer prices rose 2.6% year-over-year in July 2025, quickening from a 1.9% increase in June and marking the tenth consecutive annual gain. The sharpest upward pressure came from unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, which surged 33.7% as strong safe-haven demand kept gold prices elevated. Additional support came from higher costs for fresh and frozen beef and veal (+16.5%) and softwood lumber (+12.0%). Offsetting these gains were notable declines in finished motor gasoline (-10.9%), oilseed cake and meal (-33.2%), and motor vehicle gasoline engines and parts (-12.1%), which tempered the overall increase.
UK Inflation rose to 3.8% from 3.6% in June and above the expectation
08/20/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to rise of inflation due to transport, airfares and fuel this will eventually drive down production and leads into recession
UK Inflation – July 2025
Annual CPI: Rose to 3.8% (highest since Jan 2024), up from 3.6% in June and above expectations of 3.7%.
Monthly CPI: Increased 0.1%, beating forecasts for a 0.1% decline, but slowing from June’s 0.3% gain.
Core CPI: Edged up slightly to 3.8% from 3.7%.
Key Drivers:
Transport (+3.2% vs. 1.7% in June): Biggest contributor, led by a 30.2% surge in airfares due to summer holiday demand, plus higher motor fuel, sea fares, and roadside recovery costs.
Restaurants & Hotels (+3.4% vs. 2.6%): Driven by rising overnight accommodation prices.
Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages (+4.9% vs. 4.5%): Continued upward momentum in grocery costs.
Offsetting Pressure:
Housing & Household Services (+6.2% vs. 6.7%): The main drag, as owner-occupiers’ housing costs and rents rose more slowly.
US mortgage applications declined 1.4% in the second week of August 2025
08/19/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to drop of mortgage applications and increase of 30-year fixed mortgage rate that continue to slows down economic activities
US mortgage applications declined 1.4% in the second week of August 2025, slightly offsetting the strong 14% rebound seen over the prior two weeks, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The dip coincided with a modest 1bps rise in the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate, though longer-term Treasury yields climbed more sharply due to weak auctions and a hotter-than-expected PPI release. Purchase applications were steady week-over-week, while refinancing activity fell 3.1%, reflecting its greater sensitivity to short-term rate moves.
Canada’s inflation rate continue to ease to 1.7% in July 2025, down from 1.9% in June and below market forecasts of 1.8%
08/19/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down as price inflation continue to ease, below market forecasts of 1.8%
Canada’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.7% in July 2025, down from 1.9% in June and below market forecasts of 1.8%, remaining under the Bank of Canada’s 2% mid-point for the fourth month in a row. The main drag continued to be gasoline prices, which fell 16.1% year-over-year following a 13.4% drop in June, reflecting the impact of April’s carbon levy removal. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.5%, steady with May and June. Price pressures were evident in food (+3.3%) and shelter (+3%), both accelerating from June’s 2.9%. The trimmed-mean core CPI—a key BoC measure—remained stable at 3% for the third consecutive month, highlighting underlying inflation persistence. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.3%, after a 0.1% gain in June, in line with expectations.
Mexico’s retail sales rose 2.7% year on year in June 2025, rebounding from a 2.0% contraction the previous year
08/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico up due to rebound of retail sales in June 2025
Mexico’s retail sales rose 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, rebounding from a 2.0% contraction the previous year, while month-over-month sales increased 1.8%, showing a solid improvement in consumer demand. This marks a positive turnaround in household spending momentum, but data for July 2025 has not yet been released by INEGI. The June strength came despite global trade uncertainties and domestic inflation pressures, suggesting resilience in Mexico’s consumer sector heading into the second half of the year. The official July report is expected later in September 2025.
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% Year over Year in July 2025
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China Down due to decrease of retail sales growth in July 2025
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July 2025, down from 4.8% in June and below market forecasts of 4.6%, marking the weakest pace since December 2024. The slowdown was broad-based, with softer growth in grain, oil, and food (8.6% vs 8.7%), clothing and textiles (1.8% vs 1.9%), household appliances (28.7% vs 32.4%), cultural and office supplies (13.8% vs 24.4%), and furniture (20.6% vs 28.7%). Declines deepened in petroleum and related products (-8.3% vs -7.3%), while automobile sales fell (-1.5% vs +4.6%), reversing last month’s growth, and building materials also slipped (-0.5% vs +1%).
On a monthly basis, retail activity contracted by 0.14% in July, moderating from a 0.26% decline in June. For the first seven months of 2025, retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting resilience but also highlighting weaker momentum amid cautious consumer spending and sector-specific slowdowns.
University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment fell to 58.6 in August 2025, well below expectation of 62
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to sharp decline of consumer sentiment showing well below expectations
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for the US fell to 58.6 in August 2025, down from 61.7 in July and well below expectations of 62, marking the first decline in four months. The drop was driven by worsening inflation concerns and sharply weaker buying conditions for durable goods. The current conditions index slipped to 60.9 from 68.0, while the expectations gauge dropped to 57.2 from 61.7. On inflation, year-ahead expectations surged to 4.9% (vs 4.5%), the highest since May, and five-year expectations edged up to 3.9% (vs 3.4%), ending a streak of several months of easing inflation views. Although expectations for personal finances improved slightly, consumers anticipate higher inflation and unemployment ahead, leaving sentiment fragile despite remaining below the extreme pessimism seen earlier in 2025.
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index Rose To 11.9 in August 2025
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up due to rebound of manufacturing index and activities looking forward
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index rose sharply to 11.9 in August 2025, its highest since November 2024, from 5.5 in July and well above expectations of 0, signaling a notable rebound in manufacturing activity. New orders (15.4 vs 2.0) and shipments (12.2 vs 11.5) strengthened, while delivery times lengthened significantly (17.4 vs 8.3) and supply availability weakened slightly (-5.5 vs -6.4). Inventories contracted (-6.4) after rising last month (15.6). Employment growth slowed (4.4 vs 9.2) and the average workweek remained stable. Input costs stayed elevated (54.1 vs 56.0) and selling price growth eased (22.9 vs 25.7). While firms remained positive, optimism over future conditions softened, with the forward-looking index falling to 16.0 from 24.1.
US retail sales rose 0.5% month over month in July 2025, matching expectation, but slowed from June’s 0.9%
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up due to improved consumer sentiment in July 2025
US retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month in July 2025, matching expectations and following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in June. Growth was led by motor vehicles & parts dealers (+1.6%) and furniture & home furnishings stores (+1.4%), with additional increases in sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments & books (+0.8%), nonstore retailers (+0.8%), clothing & accessories (+0.7%), and gasoline stations (+0.7%). Declines occurred at miscellaneous store retailers (-1.7%), building materials & garden supplies (-1.0%), and electronics & appliances (-0.6%). Core retail sales, which feed into GDP calculations, rose 0.5% after a 0.8% June gain, beating expectations of 0.4%.
US initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 and continuing claims down by 15,000 to 1.953 million, total continued stood at 2.03 million
08/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to continued claims stood at 2.03 million
In the week ending August 9, 2025, US initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 224,000, with the prior week’s figure revised up to 227,000. The 4-week moving average edged up to 221,750. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3% for the week ending August 2, with continuing claims down by 15,000 to 1.953 million. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims rose by 3,694 to 199,186, below the expected 6,577 increase, while unadjusted continuing claims fell by 15,465 to 1.984 million. Total continued weeks claimed across all programs stood at 2.03 million, down 4,157 from the prior week. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), and Rhode Island (2.5%). The largest increases in initial claims came from Texas (+1,002) and New Jersey (+942), while the biggest declines were in New York (-1,017) and California (-924).
US Producer Prices surged 0.9% month over month, rebounded from June’s flat reading and exceeds 0.2% forecast
08/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to higher than expected Producer Prices change in July 2025 that will impact the rate cut probability by the Fed
In July 2025, US producer prices surged 0.9% month-over-month, sharply rebounding from June’s flat reading and far exceeding the 0.2% forecast, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022. Services costs rose 1.1%, driven by a 3.8% jump in machinery and equipment wholesaling margins, alongside gains in portfolio management, securities brokerage and investment advice, traveler accommodations, automobile retailing, and truck freight transport. Goods prices increased 0.7%, led by a 38.9% spike in fresh and dry vegetables, with additional rises in meats, diesel fuel, jet fuel, nonferrous scrap, and eggs, partially offset by a 1.8% drop in gasoline. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also climbed 0.9%, well above expectations. On a yearly basis, headline producer inflation accelerated to 3.3%, the highest in five months and above the 2.5% forecast, while core PPI jumped to 3.7% from 2.6%, surpassing the 2.9% estimate.
NFIB small business sentiment improved with index rose to 100.3 in July 2025
08/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States up due to improved NFIB small-business sentiment
NFIB small-business sentiment improved: the index rose to 100.3 in July 2025 (from 98.6), a five-month high and above its long-run average (98). Owners reported brighter six-month expectations—the net share expecting better conditions climbed to +36%—with 16% saying it’s a good time to expand. Inflation eased as a concern (11% cite it as the top problem), while labor quality returned as the primary constraint, suggesting ongoing hiring frictions even as price pressures cool. Overall, sentiment points to firmer capex and hiring plans, contingent on policy clarity (small-business deduction permanence, trade rules).
US inflation stayed at 2.7% YoY in July, lower than expectation but with core CPI rose to 3.1%
08/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to observation of a ‘gradual’ disinflation path rather than a clear path
Headline US inflation stayed at 2.7% y/y in July 2025 (vs 2.8% expected), as deeper energy deflation (-1.6% vs -0.8% prior) and a slight easing in shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) offset firmer goods and services—used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8%), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%), and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%); food held at 2.9%. Gasoline (-9.5%) and fuel oil (-2.9%) kept falling, while natural gas remained elevated (+13.8% y/y). Month over month, headline CPI rose 0.2% (down from 0.3% in June). Core inflation re-accelerated to 3.1% y/y (five-month high) and 0.3% m/m (strongest in six months), hinting that underlying price pressures firmed even as the headline rate was steady.
Core inflation heated up: core CPI rose to 3.1% y/y in July (from 2.9% in June), a five-month high and above 3.0% consensus; +0.3% m/m after +0.2%. Shelter cooled a touch (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) but remains the main driver. Firm gains in medical care (+3.5%), household furnishings (+3.4%), motor vehicle insurance (+5.3%), and recreation (+2.4%) offset the shelter deceleration. Net takeaway: underlying price pressures—especially services ex-shelter—re-accelerated, reinforcing a “gradual” disinflation path rather than a clean glide, and keeping policymakers cautious.
UK unemployment held at 4.7% in the three months to June 2025, remaining highest since July 2021
08/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom Down due to high unemployment rate remained the same and non improving economic activity
UK unemployment held at 4.7% in the three months to June 2025—matching expectations and remaining the highest since the period to July 2021. The composition worsened, with more people unemployed for 6–12 months and over a year, and all duration buckets up versus a year earlier. Offsetting this, employment rose by 238k to 34.21m (best since September 2024), led by full-time roles; 3.9% of workers now hold second jobs. Economic inactivity was unchanged at 21%, suggesting slack is edging higher even as headline employment expands.
Canada’s employment dropped by 40,800 in July 2025, the sharpest decline since January 2022
08/08/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to significant drop and miss of employment number expectation
Canada’s employment dropped by 40,800 in July 2025, the sharpest decline since January 2022, reversing June’s 83,100 gain and missing expectations for a 13,500 increase. A loss of 51,000 full-time positions outweighed a 10,300 rise in part-time jobs. Job losses were broad-based, led by information, culture and recreation (-29,000; -3.3%), construction (-22,000; -1.3%), business, building and other support services (-19,200; -2.8%), and health care and social assistance (-17,000; -0.6%). Transportation and warehousing saw a rebound (+26,000; +2.4%), its first gain since January. Regionally, Alberta (-17,000; -0.6%) and British Columbia (-16,000; -0.5%) recorded the largest losses, while Saskatchewan added 3,500 jobs (+0.6%) and employment elsewhere was little changed.
The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 bps to 4% - the lowest since March 2023
08/08/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to interest rate drop due to slow down of economy and expectation of recession
The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 bps to 4%—the lowest since March 2023—in a historic two-round vote, with five MPC members backing the move and four favoring no change. Governor Andrew Bailey described the decision as “finely balanced” and stressed that future cuts will be “gradual and careful.” The split reflects a policy dilemma between tackling inflation, now seen peaking at 4% in September, and addressing signs of labor market strain from higher payroll taxes and minimum wage hikes. The BoE raised its 2025 growth forecast to 1.25% and signaled possible adjustments to its bond sales program next month amid stress in long-dated gilt markets. Markets anticipate one more cut this year, with rates projected to stabilize around 3.5% in 2026.
The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 7.75% in August
08/08/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico Down due to significant drop in annual inflation and weakening economy
The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 7.75% in August, citing a drop in annual inflation from 4.51% in mid-June to 3.51% in July and slightly stronger Q2 growth compared to Q1, despite continued economic slack. Policymakers signaled the rate-cutting cycle would continue, expecting the ongoing disinflation to allow further easing while maintaining a restrictive stance. Forecasts still see inflation converging to the 3% target by Q3 2026. The bank maintained a cautious tone, noting that global trade tensions and geopolitical risks could weaken the peso or slow growth, and emphasized the need for a flexible policy approach.
Initial Jobless Claims rose 7,000, the four week moving average slightly declined by 500 to 220,750, continuous claims increased
08/07/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rise of initial jobless claims and continuous claims
For the week ending August 2, 2025, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 226,000, while the prior week was revised up to 219,000. The four-week moving average slightly declined by 500 to 220,750, signaling ongoing labor market stability despite some recent volatility. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 194,988, rising modestly by 0.6% and defying seasonal expectations of a decline.
The number of insured unemployed (i.e., continued claims) increased by 38,000 to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021, while the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%. The four-week average for continued claims also edged up to 1,951,750.
Among the states, the largest declines in initial claims were seen in Kentucky (-6,212), Texas (-2,720), and Georgia (-1,949)—the latter due to fewer layoffs in manufacturing, health care, and technical services. No state reported an increase of more than 1,000.
Overall, continued claims across all programs stood at 2,036,207 for the week ending July 19, down slightly from the previous week. The latest data suggest a relatively resilient labor market, though the steady rise in insured unemployment may warrant close monitoring in the months ahead.
U.S unemployment rate raised to 4.2%, with job opening reduced 258,000 in June and May
07/31/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to unemployment raised to 4.2% and large reduction of jobs opening in June and May
In July 2025, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased modestly by 73,000, signaling continued labor market stagnation, as job growth has shown little movement since April. The unemployment rate raised to 4.2%, unchanged for the third straight month, with 7.2 million people unemployed.
Household Survey Highlights:
New entrants to the labor force rose by 275,000, reaching 985,000, suggesting more individuals are seeking work for the first time.
Long-term unemployment climbed by 179,000 to 1.8 million, now accounting for nearly 25% of all unemployed.
Labor force participation stayed at 62.2%, but declined 0.5 percentage points over the year.
The employment-population ratio held at 59.6%, down 0.4 points year-over-year.
Part-time for economic reasons held at 4.7 million, indicating underemployment remains an issue.
The number of people not in the labor force but wanting a job was stable at 6.2 million, up 568,000 over the year.
Discouraged workers fell by 212,000 to 425,000, reversing June’s rise.
Establishment Survey Highlights:
Health care added 55,000 jobs, well above its 12-month average; notable gains in ambulatory services (+34,000) and hospitals (+16,000).
Social assistance rose by 18,000, driven by growth in individual and family services (+21,000).
Federal government employment declined by 12,000, bringing total losses since January to 84,000.
All other major industries, including manufacturing, retail, construction, and leisure and hospitality, saw little or no change.
Wages & Hours:
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $36.44, with a 3.9% year-over-year increase.
Nonsupervisory employee wages also rose 0.3% to $31.34.
Average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours; manufacturing hours held steady at 40.1, while overtime slipped to 2.8 hours.
Revisions:
May employment was revised down by 125,000 (from +144,000 to +19,000).
June was revised down by 133,000 (from +147,000 to +14,000).
Combined, these revisions reduced prior job gains by 258,000, revealing a significantly weaker trend than initially reported.
Conclusion:
The July report underscores a marked slowdown in job growth, with strength concentrated in health and social services while the rest of the labor market stagnates. Combined with substantial downward revisions to previous months and stable but elevated long-term unemployment, the data reflect a cooling yet resilient labor market under rising economic uncertainty.
U.S Initial Jobless Claims unchanged for the week of July 26th 2025
07/31/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to non decreasing initial jobless claim for months under high interest rate environment, eventually causing recession
For the week ending July 26, 2025, the U.S. labor market showed continued stability with only modest movements in jobless claims:
Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Initial Claims:
Rose slightly by 1,000 to 218,000, up from an unrevised 217,000 the previous week.4-week Moving Average:
Fell by 3,500 to 221,000, indicating a smoothing of recent volatility.Insured Unemployment Rate (Week ending July 19):
1.3%, unchanged from the prior week.Insured Unemployment Level:
1,946,000, unchanged from the revised prior week.4-week Moving Average (insured unemployment):
Down 2,500 to 1,949,250.
Initial jobless claims ticked up slightly but remain at historically low levels, reflecting ongoing labor market resilience. Continued claims remain steady, and no states triggered extended benefits, indicating a broadly healthy employment environment despite some localized volatility.
Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, highest level since 2008
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down due to high short term rates continue to keep inflation and business activities restricted
In July 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008, in a unanimous decision that reflected the central bank’s cautious stance toward policy normalization. The move came shortly after the U.S. Federal Reserve also held rates steady, despite political pressure for cuts. In its updated quarterly outlook, the BoJ raised its FY 2025 core inflation forecast to 2.7% (from 2.2% in April), anticipating a moderation to 1.8% in FY 2026 before rising to 2.0% in FY 2027, indicating a gradual return to target. The BoJ also revised up its FY 2025 GDP growth projection slightly to 0.6%, citing reduced uncertainty following a recent trade agreement with the U.S., while maintaining its FY 2026 growth outlook at 0.7%. Overall, the BoJ signaled continued patience, prioritizing stability amid a still-vulnerable recovery.
Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in July 2025 meeting
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to high short term rates continue to cause high cost of money for business, eventually causing recession
In July 2025, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, aligning with expectations. Notably, two governors dissented in favor of a rate cut, marking the first dual dissent since 1993. The Fed acknowledged that economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, diverging from earlier characterizations of "solid" growth, with fluctuations in net exports contributing to recent data volatility. While the unemployment rate remains low, inflation is still somewhat elevated, and policymakers emphasized ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Fed reiterated that future policy decisions will be data-dependent, taking into account evolving conditions and risks. The statement reflected a cautious, wait-and-see stance, as the central bank monitors the potential drag from the ongoing trade war on both growth and progress toward the 2% inflation target.
Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its July decision after 7 rate cuts
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to stop of rate cut process that failed to boost the economy
In July 2025, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, as widely expected. Notably, two governors dissented in favor of a rate cut, marking the first dual dissent since 1993 and signaling growing internal debate over policy direction. Policymakers acknowledged that economic activity moderated in the first half, diverging from earlier assessments of solid growth, with fluctuating net exports cited as a contributing factor. The unemployment rate remains low, while inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the Fed noted that economic uncertainty persists. Emphasizing a data-dependent stance, the Fed reiterated that future rate moves will hinge on incoming information, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Rising concern over the trade war's impact on inflation and growth reinforced the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, as it seeks to safeguard progress toward its 2% inflation target without exacerbating economic fragility.
Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its July decision after 7 rate cuts
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to stop of rate cut process that failed to boost the economy
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its July 2025 decision, as expected by markets, to mark the third hold following 2.25 percentage points of cuts throughout seven consecutive decisions. The Governing Council stated that the unpredictability in the magnitude of tariffs disabled policymakers from offering any guidance on the economy and the BoC's reaction function, as sectoral and baseline tariffs from the US maintained volatility in global trade. The Council noted that the Canadian economy has so far shown resilience to tariffs already mandated with employment holding up and H2 growth projections remaining optimistic under the current tariff scenario. Still, the second-quarter GDP is due to contract as exporters received fewer orders after front-loading deliveries in Q1. On the price front, the BoC expects CPI inflation to remain near the 2% target in the medium term.
U.S private businesses added 104,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain since March, beating expectations
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up due to larger than expected job opening showing tightness in parts of the labor market
In July 2025, U.S. private businesses added 104,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain since March and well above expectations of a 75,000 increase, marking a strong rebound after June’s revised loss of 23,000 jobs. The service-providing sector led with 74,000 new jobs, driven by significant increases in leisure and hospitality (+46,000), financial activities (+28,000), and trade, transportation, and utilities (+18,000). However, education and health services experienced a notable setback, shedding 38,000 jobs. The goods-producing sector added 31,000 jobs, supported by gains in construction (+15,000), natural resources and mining (+9,000), and manufacturing (+7,000). Wage growth remained stable, with year-over-year pay increases holding at 4.4% for job-stayers and 7.0% for job-changers for the fourth straight month, suggesting continued tightness in parts of the labor market.
Euro Area Consumer Confidence Indicator increased by 0.6 points to -14.7
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe up due to improved consumer confidence indicator in July 2025
In July 2025, the Euro Area consumer confidence indicator increased by 0.6 points to -14.7, reaching its highest level in four months and confirming preliminary estimates. In the wider European Union, sentiment also improved, rising 0.3 points to -14.5. The gain was driven by improved consumer assessments of their household financial situations—both past and expected—as well as a greater willingness to make major purchases. However, these positive developments were partially offset by a deterioration in expectations regarding the general economic outlook in their respective countries.
Euro Area’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose by 1.6 points to 95.8 in July 2025
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe up due to improved consumer sentiment in July 2025
The Euro Area’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose by 1.6 points to 95.8 in July 2025, marking the highest reading in five months and exceeding market expectations of 94.5. The improvement was supported by stronger confidence in industry (-10.4 vs -11.8), services (4.1 vs 3.1), retail trade (-6.7 vs -7.6), and a slight uptick in consumer sentiment (-14.7 vs -15.3). However, construction confidence dipped slightly (-3 vs -2.9). Regionally, sentiment improved notably in France (+2.4), Spain (+2.2), and Germany (+1.2), with a more modest rise in Italy (+0.4). Sentiment was broadly unchanged in the Netherlands (-0.2) and declined significantly in Poland (-2.1), highlighting a mixed picture across member states despite overall gains.