Mexico’s retail sales rose 2.7% year on year in June 2025, rebounding from a 2.0% contraction the previous year
08/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico up due to rebound of retail sales in June 2025
Mexico’s retail sales rose 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, rebounding from a 2.0% contraction the previous year, while month-over-month sales increased 1.8%, showing a solid improvement in consumer demand. This marks a positive turnaround in household spending momentum, but data for July 2025 has not yet been released by INEGI. The June strength came despite global trade uncertainties and domestic inflation pressures, suggesting resilience in Mexico’s consumer sector heading into the second half of the year. The official July report is expected later in September 2025.
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% Year over Year in July 2025
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China Down due to decrease of retail sales growth in July 2025
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July 2025, down from 4.8% in June and below market forecasts of 4.6%, marking the weakest pace since December 2024. The slowdown was broad-based, with softer growth in grain, oil, and food (8.6% vs 8.7%), clothing and textiles (1.8% vs 1.9%), household appliances (28.7% vs 32.4%), cultural and office supplies (13.8% vs 24.4%), and furniture (20.6% vs 28.7%). Declines deepened in petroleum and related products (-8.3% vs -7.3%), while automobile sales fell (-1.5% vs +4.6%), reversing last month’s growth, and building materials also slipped (-0.5% vs +1%).
On a monthly basis, retail activity contracted by 0.14% in July, moderating from a 0.26% decline in June. For the first seven months of 2025, retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting resilience but also highlighting weaker momentum amid cautious consumer spending and sector-specific slowdowns.
University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment fell to 58.6 in August 2025, well below expectation of 62
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to sharp decline of consumer sentiment showing well below expectations
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for the US fell to 58.6 in August 2025, down from 61.7 in July and well below expectations of 62, marking the first decline in four months. The drop was driven by worsening inflation concerns and sharply weaker buying conditions for durable goods. The current conditions index slipped to 60.9 from 68.0, while the expectations gauge dropped to 57.2 from 61.7. On inflation, year-ahead expectations surged to 4.9% (vs 4.5%), the highest since May, and five-year expectations edged up to 3.9% (vs 3.4%), ending a streak of several months of easing inflation views. Although expectations for personal finances improved slightly, consumers anticipate higher inflation and unemployment ahead, leaving sentiment fragile despite remaining below the extreme pessimism seen earlier in 2025.
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index Rose To 11.9 in August 2025
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up due to rebound of manufacturing index and activities looking forward
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index rose sharply to 11.9 in August 2025, its highest since November 2024, from 5.5 in July and well above expectations of 0, signaling a notable rebound in manufacturing activity. New orders (15.4 vs 2.0) and shipments (12.2 vs 11.5) strengthened, while delivery times lengthened significantly (17.4 vs 8.3) and supply availability weakened slightly (-5.5 vs -6.4). Inventories contracted (-6.4) after rising last month (15.6). Employment growth slowed (4.4 vs 9.2) and the average workweek remained stable. Input costs stayed elevated (54.1 vs 56.0) and selling price growth eased (22.9 vs 25.7). While firms remained positive, optimism over future conditions softened, with the forward-looking index falling to 16.0 from 24.1.
US retail sales rose 0.5% month over month in July 2025, matching expectation, but slowed from June’s 0.9%
08/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up due to improved consumer sentiment in July 2025
US retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month in July 2025, matching expectations and following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in June. Growth was led by motor vehicles & parts dealers (+1.6%) and furniture & home furnishings stores (+1.4%), with additional increases in sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments & books (+0.8%), nonstore retailers (+0.8%), clothing & accessories (+0.7%), and gasoline stations (+0.7%). Declines occurred at miscellaneous store retailers (-1.7%), building materials & garden supplies (-1.0%), and electronics & appliances (-0.6%). Core retail sales, which feed into GDP calculations, rose 0.5% after a 0.8% June gain, beating expectations of 0.4%.
US initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 and continuing claims down by 15,000 to 1.953 million, total continued stood at 2.03 million
08/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to continued claims stood at 2.03 million
In the week ending August 9, 2025, US initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 224,000, with the prior week’s figure revised up to 227,000. The 4-week moving average edged up to 221,750. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3% for the week ending August 2, with continuing claims down by 15,000 to 1.953 million. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims rose by 3,694 to 199,186, below the expected 6,577 increase, while unadjusted continuing claims fell by 15,465 to 1.984 million. Total continued weeks claimed across all programs stood at 2.03 million, down 4,157 from the prior week. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), and Rhode Island (2.5%). The largest increases in initial claims came from Texas (+1,002) and New Jersey (+942), while the biggest declines were in New York (-1,017) and California (-924).
US Producer Prices surged 0.9% month over month, rebounded from June’s flat reading and exceeds 0.2% forecast
08/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to higher than expected Producer Prices change in July 2025 that will impact the rate cut probability by the Fed
In July 2025, US producer prices surged 0.9% month-over-month, sharply rebounding from June’s flat reading and far exceeding the 0.2% forecast, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022. Services costs rose 1.1%, driven by a 3.8% jump in machinery and equipment wholesaling margins, alongside gains in portfolio management, securities brokerage and investment advice, traveler accommodations, automobile retailing, and truck freight transport. Goods prices increased 0.7%, led by a 38.9% spike in fresh and dry vegetables, with additional rises in meats, diesel fuel, jet fuel, nonferrous scrap, and eggs, partially offset by a 1.8% drop in gasoline. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also climbed 0.9%, well above expectations. On a yearly basis, headline producer inflation accelerated to 3.3%, the highest in five months and above the 2.5% forecast, while core PPI jumped to 3.7% from 2.6%, surpassing the 2.9% estimate.
NFIB small business sentiment improved with index rose to 100.3 in July 2025
08/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States up due to improved NFIB small-business sentiment
NFIB small-business sentiment improved: the index rose to 100.3 in July 2025 (from 98.6), a five-month high and above its long-run average (98). Owners reported brighter six-month expectations—the net share expecting better conditions climbed to +36%—with 16% saying it’s a good time to expand. Inflation eased as a concern (11% cite it as the top problem), while labor quality returned as the primary constraint, suggesting ongoing hiring frictions even as price pressures cool. Overall, sentiment points to firmer capex and hiring plans, contingent on policy clarity (small-business deduction permanence, trade rules).
US inflation stayed at 2.7% YoY in July, lower than expectation but with core CPI rose to 3.1%
08/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States Down due to observation of a ‘gradual’ disinflation path rather than a clear path
Headline US inflation stayed at 2.7% y/y in July 2025 (vs 2.8% expected), as deeper energy deflation (-1.6% vs -0.8% prior) and a slight easing in shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) offset firmer goods and services—used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8%), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%), and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%); food held at 2.9%. Gasoline (-9.5%) and fuel oil (-2.9%) kept falling, while natural gas remained elevated (+13.8% y/y). Month over month, headline CPI rose 0.2% (down from 0.3% in June). Core inflation re-accelerated to 3.1% y/y (five-month high) and 0.3% m/m (strongest in six months), hinting that underlying price pressures firmed even as the headline rate was steady.
Core inflation heated up: core CPI rose to 3.1% y/y in July (from 2.9% in June), a five-month high and above 3.0% consensus; +0.3% m/m after +0.2%. Shelter cooled a touch (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) but remains the main driver. Firm gains in medical care (+3.5%), household furnishings (+3.4%), motor vehicle insurance (+5.3%), and recreation (+2.4%) offset the shelter deceleration. Net takeaway: underlying price pressures—especially services ex-shelter—re-accelerated, reinforcing a “gradual” disinflation path rather than a clean glide, and keeping policymakers cautious.
UK unemployment held at 4.7% in the three months to June 2025, remaining highest since July 2021
08/12/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom Down due to high unemployment rate remained the same and non improving economic activity
UK unemployment held at 4.7% in the three months to June 2025—matching expectations and remaining the highest since the period to July 2021. The composition worsened, with more people unemployed for 6–12 months and over a year, and all duration buckets up versus a year earlier. Offsetting this, employment rose by 238k to 34.21m (best since September 2024), led by full-time roles; 3.9% of workers now hold second jobs. Economic inactivity was unchanged at 21%, suggesting slack is edging higher even as headline employment expands.
Canada’s employment dropped by 40,800 in July 2025, the sharpest decline since January 2022
08/08/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to significant drop and miss of employment number expectation
Canada’s employment dropped by 40,800 in July 2025, the sharpest decline since January 2022, reversing June’s 83,100 gain and missing expectations for a 13,500 increase. A loss of 51,000 full-time positions outweighed a 10,300 rise in part-time jobs. Job losses were broad-based, led by information, culture and recreation (-29,000; -3.3%), construction (-22,000; -1.3%), business, building and other support services (-19,200; -2.8%), and health care and social assistance (-17,000; -0.6%). Transportation and warehousing saw a rebound (+26,000; +2.4%), its first gain since January. Regionally, Alberta (-17,000; -0.6%) and British Columbia (-16,000; -0.5%) recorded the largest losses, while Saskatchewan added 3,500 jobs (+0.6%) and employment elsewhere was little changed.
The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 bps to 4% - the lowest since March 2023
08/08/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down due to interest rate drop due to slow down of economy and expectation of recession
The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 bps to 4%—the lowest since March 2023—in a historic two-round vote, with five MPC members backing the move and four favoring no change. Governor Andrew Bailey described the decision as “finely balanced” and stressed that future cuts will be “gradual and careful.” The split reflects a policy dilemma between tackling inflation, now seen peaking at 4% in September, and addressing signs of labor market strain from higher payroll taxes and minimum wage hikes. The BoE raised its 2025 growth forecast to 1.25% and signaled possible adjustments to its bond sales program next month amid stress in long-dated gilt markets. Markets anticipate one more cut this year, with rates projected to stabilize around 3.5% in 2026.
The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 7.75% in August
08/08/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico Down due to significant drop in annual inflation and weakening economy
The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 7.75% in August, citing a drop in annual inflation from 4.51% in mid-June to 3.51% in July and slightly stronger Q2 growth compared to Q1, despite continued economic slack. Policymakers signaled the rate-cutting cycle would continue, expecting the ongoing disinflation to allow further easing while maintaining a restrictive stance. Forecasts still see inflation converging to the 3% target by Q3 2026. The bank maintained a cautious tone, noting that global trade tensions and geopolitical risks could weaken the peso or slow growth, and emphasized the need for a flexible policy approach.
Initial Jobless Claims rose 7,000, the four week moving average slightly declined by 500 to 220,750, continuous claims increased
08/07/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to rise of initial jobless claims and continuous claims
For the week ending August 2, 2025, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 226,000, while the prior week was revised up to 219,000. The four-week moving average slightly declined by 500 to 220,750, signaling ongoing labor market stability despite some recent volatility. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 194,988, rising modestly by 0.6% and defying seasonal expectations of a decline.
The number of insured unemployed (i.e., continued claims) increased by 38,000 to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021, while the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%. The four-week average for continued claims also edged up to 1,951,750.
Among the states, the largest declines in initial claims were seen in Kentucky (-6,212), Texas (-2,720), and Georgia (-1,949)—the latter due to fewer layoffs in manufacturing, health care, and technical services. No state reported an increase of more than 1,000.
Overall, continued claims across all programs stood at 2,036,207 for the week ending July 19, down slightly from the previous week. The latest data suggest a relatively resilient labor market, though the steady rise in insured unemployment may warrant close monitoring in the months ahead.
U.S unemployment rate raised to 4.2%, with job opening reduced 258,000 in June and May
07/31/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to unemployment raised to 4.2% and large reduction of jobs opening in June and May
In July 2025, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased modestly by 73,000, signaling continued labor market stagnation, as job growth has shown little movement since April. The unemployment rate raised to 4.2%, unchanged for the third straight month, with 7.2 million people unemployed.
Household Survey Highlights:
New entrants to the labor force rose by 275,000, reaching 985,000, suggesting more individuals are seeking work for the first time.
Long-term unemployment climbed by 179,000 to 1.8 million, now accounting for nearly 25% of all unemployed.
Labor force participation stayed at 62.2%, but declined 0.5 percentage points over the year.
The employment-population ratio held at 59.6%, down 0.4 points year-over-year.
Part-time for economic reasons held at 4.7 million, indicating underemployment remains an issue.
The number of people not in the labor force but wanting a job was stable at 6.2 million, up 568,000 over the year.
Discouraged workers fell by 212,000 to 425,000, reversing June’s rise.
Establishment Survey Highlights:
Health care added 55,000 jobs, well above its 12-month average; notable gains in ambulatory services (+34,000) and hospitals (+16,000).
Social assistance rose by 18,000, driven by growth in individual and family services (+21,000).
Federal government employment declined by 12,000, bringing total losses since January to 84,000.
All other major industries, including manufacturing, retail, construction, and leisure and hospitality, saw little or no change.
Wages & Hours:
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $36.44, with a 3.9% year-over-year increase.
Nonsupervisory employee wages also rose 0.3% to $31.34.
Average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours; manufacturing hours held steady at 40.1, while overtime slipped to 2.8 hours.
Revisions:
May employment was revised down by 125,000 (from +144,000 to +19,000).
June was revised down by 133,000 (from +147,000 to +14,000).
Combined, these revisions reduced prior job gains by 258,000, revealing a significantly weaker trend than initially reported.
Conclusion:
The July report underscores a marked slowdown in job growth, with strength concentrated in health and social services while the rest of the labor market stagnates. Combined with substantial downward revisions to previous months and stable but elevated long-term unemployment, the data reflect a cooling yet resilient labor market under rising economic uncertainty.
U.S Initial Jobless Claims unchanged for the week of July 26th 2025
07/31/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to non decreasing initial jobless claim for months under high interest rate environment, eventually causing recession
For the week ending July 26, 2025, the U.S. labor market showed continued stability with only modest movements in jobless claims:
Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Initial Claims:
Rose slightly by 1,000 to 218,000, up from an unrevised 217,000 the previous week.4-week Moving Average:
Fell by 3,500 to 221,000, indicating a smoothing of recent volatility.Insured Unemployment Rate (Week ending July 19):
1.3%, unchanged from the prior week.Insured Unemployment Level:
1,946,000, unchanged from the revised prior week.4-week Moving Average (insured unemployment):
Down 2,500 to 1,949,250.
Initial jobless claims ticked up slightly but remain at historically low levels, reflecting ongoing labor market resilience. Continued claims remain steady, and no states triggered extended benefits, indicating a broadly healthy employment environment despite some localized volatility.
Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, highest level since 2008
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down due to high short term rates continue to keep inflation and business activities restricted
In July 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008, in a unanimous decision that reflected the central bank’s cautious stance toward policy normalization. The move came shortly after the U.S. Federal Reserve also held rates steady, despite political pressure for cuts. In its updated quarterly outlook, the BoJ raised its FY 2025 core inflation forecast to 2.7% (from 2.2% in April), anticipating a moderation to 1.8% in FY 2026 before rising to 2.0% in FY 2027, indicating a gradual return to target. The BoJ also revised up its FY 2025 GDP growth projection slightly to 0.6%, citing reduced uncertainty following a recent trade agreement with the U.S., while maintaining its FY 2026 growth outlook at 0.7%. Overall, the BoJ signaled continued patience, prioritizing stability amid a still-vulnerable recovery.
Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in July 2025 meeting
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to high short term rates continue to cause high cost of money for business, eventually causing recession
In July 2025, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, aligning with expectations. Notably, two governors dissented in favor of a rate cut, marking the first dual dissent since 1993. The Fed acknowledged that economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, diverging from earlier characterizations of "solid" growth, with fluctuations in net exports contributing to recent data volatility. While the unemployment rate remains low, inflation is still somewhat elevated, and policymakers emphasized ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Fed reiterated that future policy decisions will be data-dependent, taking into account evolving conditions and risks. The statement reflected a cautious, wait-and-see stance, as the central bank monitors the potential drag from the ongoing trade war on both growth and progress toward the 2% inflation target.
Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its July decision after 7 rate cuts
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to stop of rate cut process that failed to boost the economy
In July 2025, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, as widely expected. Notably, two governors dissented in favor of a rate cut, marking the first dual dissent since 1993 and signaling growing internal debate over policy direction. Policymakers acknowledged that economic activity moderated in the first half, diverging from earlier assessments of solid growth, with fluctuating net exports cited as a contributing factor. The unemployment rate remains low, while inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the Fed noted that economic uncertainty persists. Emphasizing a data-dependent stance, the Fed reiterated that future rate moves will hinge on incoming information, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Rising concern over the trade war's impact on inflation and growth reinforced the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, as it seeks to safeguard progress toward its 2% inflation target without exacerbating economic fragility.
Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its July decision after 7 rate cuts
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to stop of rate cut process that failed to boost the economy
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its July 2025 decision, as expected by markets, to mark the third hold following 2.25 percentage points of cuts throughout seven consecutive decisions. The Governing Council stated that the unpredictability in the magnitude of tariffs disabled policymakers from offering any guidance on the economy and the BoC's reaction function, as sectoral and baseline tariffs from the US maintained volatility in global trade. The Council noted that the Canadian economy has so far shown resilience to tariffs already mandated with employment holding up and H2 growth projections remaining optimistic under the current tariff scenario. Still, the second-quarter GDP is due to contract as exporters received fewer orders after front-loading deliveries in Q1. On the price front, the BoC expects CPI inflation to remain near the 2% target in the medium term.
U.S private businesses added 104,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain since March, beating expectations
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up due to larger than expected job opening showing tightness in parts of the labor market
In July 2025, U.S. private businesses added 104,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain since March and well above expectations of a 75,000 increase, marking a strong rebound after June’s revised loss of 23,000 jobs. The service-providing sector led with 74,000 new jobs, driven by significant increases in leisure and hospitality (+46,000), financial activities (+28,000), and trade, transportation, and utilities (+18,000). However, education and health services experienced a notable setback, shedding 38,000 jobs. The goods-producing sector added 31,000 jobs, supported by gains in construction (+15,000), natural resources and mining (+9,000), and manufacturing (+7,000). Wage growth remained stable, with year-over-year pay increases holding at 4.4% for job-stayers and 7.0% for job-changers for the fourth straight month, suggesting continued tightness in parts of the labor market.
Euro Area Consumer Confidence Indicator increased by 0.6 points to -14.7
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe up due to improved consumer confidence indicator in July 2025
In July 2025, the Euro Area consumer confidence indicator increased by 0.6 points to -14.7, reaching its highest level in four months and confirming preliminary estimates. In the wider European Union, sentiment also improved, rising 0.3 points to -14.5. The gain was driven by improved consumer assessments of their household financial situations—both past and expected—as well as a greater willingness to make major purchases. However, these positive developments were partially offset by a deterioration in expectations regarding the general economic outlook in their respective countries.
Euro Area’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose by 1.6 points to 95.8 in July 2025
07/30/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe up due to improved consumer sentiment in July 2025
The Euro Area’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose by 1.6 points to 95.8 in July 2025, marking the highest reading in five months and exceeding market expectations of 94.5. The improvement was supported by stronger confidence in industry (-10.4 vs -11.8), services (4.1 vs 3.1), retail trade (-6.7 vs -7.6), and a slight uptick in consumer sentiment (-14.7 vs -15.3). However, construction confidence dipped slightly (-3 vs -2.9). Regionally, sentiment improved notably in France (+2.4), Spain (+2.2), and Germany (+1.2), with a more modest rise in Italy (+0.4). Sentiment was broadly unchanged in the Netherlands (-0.2) and declined significantly in Poland (-2.1), highlighting a mixed picture across member states despite overall gains.